ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

GOES E - with angle adjustments from RAMMB

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Exalt]

GOES E - with angle adjustments from RAMMB

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

That looks like a hurricane to me, that eye is starting to peek out..

[jlauderdal]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
38s
If I were @POTUS would be making contingency for Puerto Rico, US Virgin islands. Our gvt should be on war footing with
the wx next 2 weeks

[NotSparta]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903018745416880130




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903024339766923268




Ventrice not sold on the future intensity of Irma

He focuses on CCKWs too much imho, they don't make as much of a difference near or at peak, and it usually only significantly affects cyclogenesis more than mature hurricanes

[Michele B]

Anybody ever use "Ventusky"?

Just discovered it. For GFS, it seems pretty good, but doesn't seem to show any other models, unless I just don't know how to use it.

[JtSmarts]

That latest GFS run had me spooked, it wouldn't have taken much for that to be Hugo 2. I don't wish Irma on anyone so hopefully (although I doubt It) we can get a shift back between US and Bermuda.

[CycloneCaptain]

You can definitely start to see the eye formation in the latest SAT image, thats for sure.

[USTropics]

You can definitely start to see the eye formation in the latest SAT image, thats for sure.

Indeed, the last few frames it has started to clear out:

[msbee]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
30s
GFS looks too far north even with 06z Carolina disaster run.Advising clients in Leewards /PR to start preparations for possible
major impact

OK, so this scares me. Cycloneye, what do you think?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a fairly small system but do expect this to expand as it heads westward

[Aric Dunn]

Look at that happy little eye winking at us..

[txwatcher91]

This should have been upgraded to a 75mph hurricane a bit earlier... this is likely about 80mph right now or maybe a bit stronger with an eye starting to develop. With a relatively small core right now it will likely ramp up quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a category 5 hurricane within a few days, there really isn't anything to stop it except the timing of an eyewall replacement cycle.

[RL3AO]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
30s
GFS looks too far north even with 06z Carolina disaster run.Advising clients in Leewards /PR to start preparations for possible
major impact

OK, so this scares me. Cycloneye, what do you think?

You have about 7 days before possible impact in PR. You don't need to take action yet, but starting to make a list of what you'd need to get and do before a major storm may help put your mind at ease over the next couple days.

[NDG]

I am not surprised with the models shifting west, like I stated yesterday it would be very unusual for such a deep trough to sweep across the SE US this time of the year and when the ensembles are not showing the NAO to go negative and for the PNA to go crazy positive for such a trough. When you see a stacked storm forecast to track WSW instead of heading poleward east of the Lesser Antilles is because ridging to the north is very strong and a trough would have a very hard time to sweep across the eastern US. The entire US coastline needs to be in alert with Irma, the best thing that could happen is for Irma to track across the greater Antilles and loose some strength if it was to impact the US, IMO.

[jlauderdal]

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi
30s
GFS looks too far north even with 06z Carolina disaster run.Advising clients in Leewards /PR to start preparations for possible
major impact

OK, so this scares me. Cycloneye, what do you think?

dont be scared, get prepared...you folks in the carib are pros at this stuff

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903018745416880130




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/903024339766923268




Ventrice not sold on the future intensity of Irma

He focuses on CCKWs too much imho, they don't make as much of a difference near or at peak, and it usually only significantly affects cyclogenesis more than mature hurricanes

I agree, this time of the year it does not matter much, IMO. Look at 2005, it did not have much support from the MJO during the heart of the hurricane season.
IMO.

[KWT]

Looking at the current presentation, I'm thinking this will likely get upgraded at the next advisory, presentation of this system is really coming along nicely now.

Also can see a roughly 285 motion at the moment as well.

[txwatcher91]

Look at that happy little eye winking at us..

I'm sure the NHC will finally bump it up to 75mph by 11am... Despite the fact that this has a well established inner core and eyewall. With the strong HP building to the north and increasing the gradient on the north side, this is likely a 85-90mph cane and heading for cat 2 status very quickly

[NotSparta]

AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 335W, 70, 990, HU

Irma is a hurricane as per ATCF file

[GCANE]