WPAC: - MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

If it does verify, it will be the 4th TC to hit the area this season and 3rd straight starting with Hato.

It would actually be the fifth one (the previous four being Merbok, Roke, Hato and Pakhar).

[1900hurricane]

The disturbance has been designated as an Invest again... (91W)...
I think we should just continue the discussion in this thread...

91W INVEST 170830 0000 17.7N 122.7E WPAC 15 1010

[imaged removed]

Agreed, since it's still the same entity per JMA. I've updated the thread title now that I am awake.

[euro6208]

The models has landfall east of Hong Kong while strengthening.

[ManilaTC]

ASCAT pass shows a large broad circulation NW of Luzon with some 20-25kt barbs to the NE.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 310200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 118.9E TO 19.6N 116.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 118.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY
240 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 302230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED,
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KTS) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29-31C). DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 118.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.3E, APPROXIMATELY
323 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 2230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGES SHOWS CURVED, DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29-31C). DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 310910
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 31/0830Z

C. 17.7N

D. 119.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SHEARED SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL/LOOSELY DEFINED
CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 75NM FROM THE SMALL COLD
OVERCAST. DT=1.0 MET=1.0 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[doomhaMwx]

The HongKong Observatory(HKO) is forecasting a strong Tropical Storm or a minimal Typhoon making landfall east of HongKong on Sunday...

[Cunxi Huang]

WTPQ21 RJTD 311800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1716 MAWAR (1716) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 19.2N 118.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 20.3N 117.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 021800UTC 21.5N 116.7E 95NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 031800UTC 22.7N 115.7E 130NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[euro6208]

Forecast has a Cat 1 typhoon at landfall...

WDPN32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED BUT SHOWING IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. A 311337Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINNING TO FORMING AT THE EDGE OF SWATH
WITH 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM. THE HIGHER WINDS ARE REMOVED MORE THAN 80 NM FROM THE SYSTEM
CENTER WITH NOTABLE FUNNELING THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE IN
COMBINATION WITH RECENT AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM (T1.5 TO T3.0) 25 TO 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS OVER THE SYSTEM WITH AN EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30
CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 18W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A MID
TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND
ADVANCES NORTHWESTWARD OVER LUZON AND EXTENDING OVER TAIWAN. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE WHILE TRACKING OVER THE WARM WATERS
OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. FUNNELING THROUGH BOTH THE TAIWAN AND LUZON
STRAITS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE SURFACE FLOW FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM.
TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 18W WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST EAST
OF HONG KONG BEFORE TAU 72. JUST AFTER LANDFALL THE STEERING RIDGE
HALT ITS ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD AND TD18W WILL ACCELERATE AROUND THE
RIDGE AXIS TAKING A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE OVER CHINA.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND DISSIPATING RAPIDLY DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. TD 18W WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE AND A 72 HOUR TAU SPREAD OF 128
NM BETWEEN TRACKERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010621Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC
WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE STORM AND LARGE VARIATIONS IN RECENT SATELLITE
FIX LOCATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED
ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW
AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD, IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TD MAWAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 18W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL TRANSIT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND
REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND GOOD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS AT TAU 48. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AROUND A 100
NAUTICAL MILE SPREAD AT LANDFALL. NAVGEM IS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER
FARTHEST TO THE EAST SUGGESTING A SOLUTION WITH A MUCH WEAKER STR.
DESPITE THE VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THE FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DUE TO
THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TRACKING OVER LAND. THE TRACK WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND
AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK BACK TO THE
NORTH BEFORE FULLY DISSIPATING LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

What a nice microwave pass on TS Mawar.

[1900hurricane]

Gonna frame that one and hang it in my room.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD OF
A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A BROAD LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 011316Z AND 011402Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASSES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T2.6. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, THAT IS HOWEVER, OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
BUILDING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MAWAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA
BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL SEE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SSTS (30 CELSIUS),
PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 18W WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE BROAD AND ILL-
DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLC, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 183 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED LOOP SHOWING A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW MULTIAGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) BECAUSE OF THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT IS OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TS MAWAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MAWAR IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AT
TAU 36 IN SOUTHEAST CHINA. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ALONG THE TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TS
18W WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
DIRECTION BUT THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH LANDFALL. DUE
TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD AND GIVEN THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED
NATURE OF THE LLCC, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

It's making a run at Typhoon status.
An eye is starting to form - evident in RBTOp imagery loop and via radar.

Mawar still has almost a day before landfall, and it also appears to be a bit more SW than JTWC's forecast.

[mrbagyo]

Shear still bugging Mawar

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 18W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM EAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT
FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AND OBSCURING A BROAD AND
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A RADAR FIX FROM RJTD AND LINED UP WITH A LLC FEATURE IN
THE 021343Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE ASCAT IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS
MAWAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MAWAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE STR AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE
TAU 24 ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF HONG KONG. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TRACK WITH HIGH VWS
PREVENTING ANY INTENSIFICATION. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 18W WILL RAPIDLY
DECAY DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN OVERALL GENERAL AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BOTH PRIOR TO AND AFTER LANDFALL. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

JMA upgraded Mawar into a Severe TS earlier...

STS 1716 (Mawar)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 3 September 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 3 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°55' (21.9°)
E116°40' (116.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 170 km (90 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

Satellite and radar images still showing that most of the deep convection, thus also the heaviest rains, are found W/SW of the center due to moderate northeasterly shear...




Heavy rainfall threat to eastern Guangdong, especially in areas west of the center, possibly including HongKong... Within the next 36hrs, rainfall totals could reach around 100mm(4in) in most areas near/west of the center, with isolated totals of around 200mm(8in)...