ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Is there any chance that this could make it to a major by the end of the day?

Yes. Looks like Aric was too conservative as usual when he issued his "major hurricane in 36hours" statement

I though I said "within" 36 hours.. if not thats what I meant lol.. teasing

[txwatcher91]

Notice the southern inflow is increasing and expanding in size. This is pulling in some deep moisture from the Equator and will continue growing in size over the coming days, via EWRC and a very favorable environment. This will be a BIG storm in a week or so.

[Michele B]

One glimmer of silver lining here is the following: historically, a storm that reaches Cat 5 strength in the Atlantic can rarely maintain that level for long periods of time, which is not to say that she wouldn't remain a major hurricane. Hypothetically speaking, of course.

And apparently I can't use grammar today.

That's what *I* was
Asking about a few pages back!

[Janie2006]

Ja, should have quoted you. I'm in the process of moving and I'm scatter-brained right now.

[stormreader]

Someone mentioned note of a cat 6, of course speculation.. now, I do know that there have been recorded hurricanes that surpassed 170mph and more, my question is, in the event some system is say, 180mph or so, would the NHC keep it at a cat 5 or...

I believe you know the answer to this question. If not, a simple Google search would help you find it. Look up Saffir Simpson Scale.

Simpson who developed the scale will tell you that Ca 5 is all you need. The scale evaluates damage to structures. Cat 5 is sufficient for catastrophic damage. Once you get to sustained winds of 156 or greater, damage will be catastrophic--a higher category is not needed. That's what the man says.

[artist]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/903246174034984960

What I find interesting about that hurricane is that there are 0 deaths.....?

There were 51, according to wiki.

[wxman57]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to come in then the EC. I'm thinking a NE Caribbean clip then a track north of Cuba. Southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas) is definitely under-the-gun for a possible major hurricane hit around Sunday, the 10th. Long way out to have much confidence. It may be recurving as it approaches Florida (like Floyd '99). Can't tell this far out. I'm thinking NW Gulf is probably safe, but not necessarily the NE Gulf.

[meriland29]

I noted yesterday that I thought it would be a solid Cat 2 by this morning, was told that might be a overshot though. Irma really has no mercy thus far, seems the entire Atlantic is just relentless this month...

[stormreader]

One glimmer of silver lining here is the following: historically, a storm that reaches Cat 5 strength in the Atlantic can rarely maintain that level for long periods of time, which is not to say that she wouldn't remain a major hurricane. Hypothetically speaking, of course.

And apparently I can't use grammar today.

True--Depends on the storm and situation---but I've found that a large hurricane can maintain about a 135 mph (Cat 4) for long areas across tropical oceans (as long as there is not an overabundance of sheer and other inhibiting factors. Large 135 mph (say Hugo) plenty bad enough.

[Happy Pelican]

The t hing that sucks is GFS predicts a cat 3-4 to hit the EC near NY and NE area ON September 11th

Can't even begin to wrap my head around this should nightmare become reality

[TheStormExpert]

I'll just leave this here.

 https://twitter.com/parkertwc/status/903286228010881024

[SoupBone]

Well if there's anything good to all of this, it's that Irma is way, way out there still. We could end up with a "fish" depending on what the modelling shows through the weekend. So no need to worry too much this early. Just "watchful waiting" time for now.

I think everyone is acutely aware of this, but with Harvey people are also on edge and fatigued. Let's hope something changes in the next few days.

[Janie2006]

I've seen many a 'cane get torn up taking the wrong path across the Caribbean. Wrong for them and wrong for the people living in Hispaniola. We'll see.

[La Sirena]

I'll just leave this here.

 https://twitter.com/parkertwc/status/903286228010881024

Heaven forbid.....I'll just say I'm glad we left the Keys. Hope that all stay safe wherever this beast of a lady lands.

There's gonna be a lot of long nights watching her lol. She seems to like the limelight.

[Raebie]

So something that concerns me: The Colonial Pipeline that is a key supplier to the South is shutting down today due to Harvey. This pipeline provides 40% of the South's gasoline.

That's going to mean significant shortages. Just when an untold number of people will be needing to gas up to evacuate.

[rickybobby]

According to wesh 2 they say some models have it going south of Cuba and going to the gom. Could be a problem for Texas. There's a disturbance in the gom and has a 20% chance of developing. Check back next week as we should have a better idea.

[rickybobby]

So something that concerns me: The Colonial Pipeline that is a key supplier to the South is shutting down today due to Harvey. This pipeline provides 40% of the South's gasoline.

That's going to mean significant shortages. Just when an untold number of people will be needing to gas up to evacuate.

Gas went up 18 cents overnight.

[weathaguyry]

The t hing that sucks is GFS predicts a cat 3-4 to hit the EC near NY and NE area ON September 11th

Can't even begin to wrap my head around this should nightmare become reality

That would cause unthinkable amounts of damage

[Raebie]

So something that concerns me: The Colonial Pipeline that is a key supplier to the South is shutting down today due to Harvey. This pipeline provides 40% of the South's gasoline.

That's going to mean significant shortages. Just when an untold number of people will be needing to gas up to evacuate.

Gas went up 18 cents overnight.

Yep, but I'm far more concerned about availability than price right now.

[SouthFLTropics]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to come in then the EC. I'm thinking a NE Caribbean clip then a track north of Cuba. Southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas) is definitely under-the-gun for a possible major hurricane hit around Sunday, the 10th. Long way out to have much confidence. It may be recurving as it approaches Florida (like Floyd '99). Can't tell this far out. I'm thinking NW Gulf is probably safe, but not necessarily the NE Gulf.

It would appear that wxman57 and I are on the same thought pattern. I've been thinking Floyd all along. This far out though that is too close to call. Floyd came within a gnats hair of smacking us here on the Treasure Coast.