ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

[meriland29]

Isthat a second system behind her?

[Cuda]

According to the models with the ridging and place this one has me very worried for anyone who gets this looks like there is no way to slow this one down at the moment could this possibly be another hurricane of the century in the making with Winds of over hurricane force over 200 miles from the center with tropical Force storm winds 400 - 600 miles ? Open this and really changes the closer it gets to the US

What would make you think it'd have that large of a windfield? Just the fact that it could go through multiple EWRC's before hitting land/losing steam?

[TJRE]

and take a look here......
for real
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... ics_22.png

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z GFS now shows a new system behind Irma, at about 9N Lat. There is a good bit of distance between them though. Other than that, 12z GFS has Irma in almost the same spot as 6z, just a bit stronger... so there is still a bit of spread between GFS and Euro at 0z Wed.

[SouthFLTropics]

Isthat a second system behind her?

Looks like little brother Jose is trailing along for the ride. WAY far South I might add.

[meriland29]

[meriland29]

Do you think this could cause a fujiwara effect and throw off the track?

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, this one developing this soon and that far out would have time to expand, could be more Typhoon like in size if the atmospheric conditions get just right.

[SouthFLTropics]

144 Hours and look at the massive amount of ridging in place. If the GFS decides to plow Irma right into that ridge I'm going to quit posting because I just can't fathom that actually happening. It goes against the laws of physics.

[stormreader]

Question for those here who delve deeply into these model runs: Are models indicating a possible increase in forward speed. Intensifying storm beneath strong high pressure ridge, should tend to propel the storm more quickly forward as it is caught up more completely in the upper air environment. Often seen that happen (Andrew as it strengthened beneath the powerful ridge to its north---moving very quickly). So do models reflect an intensifying storm moving more quickly toward the islands???

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

According to the models with the ridging and place this one has me very worried for anyone who gets this looks like there is no way to slow this one down at the moment could this possibly be another hurricane of the century in the making with Winds of over hurricane force over 200 miles from the center with tropical Force storm winds 400 - 600 miles ? Open this and really changes the closer it gets to the US

What would make you think it'd have that large of a windfield? Just the fact that it could go through multiple EWRC's before hitting land/losing steam?

Tropical systems traveling north tend to expand their windfields. Perhaps that general principle is what the poster meant? Also, it does appear to be growing bigger overall on the model panels. Although I'm not sure where those exacts numbers came from.

[SouthFLTropics]

Do you think this could cause a fujiwara effect and throw off the track?

Too far away from each other to cause fujiwara

[SouthFLTropics]

Question for those here who delve deeply into these model runs: Are models indicating a possible increase in forward speed. Intensifying storm beneath strong high pressure ridge, should tend to propel the storm more quickly forward as it is caught up more completely in the upper air environment. Often seen that happen (Andrew as it strengthened beneath the powerful ridge to its north---moving very quickly). So do models reflect an intensifying storm moving more quickly toward the islands???

I'm not an expert on this but that seems like a reasonable hypothesis. Perhaps RL3A0 or another pro met can chime in.

[meriland29]

Just going to repost this from earlier..

A major hurricane will be steered by more than the 500 mb winds. It'll be steered by the mean flow through most of the atmosphere. Once a hurricane is that strong, it gets tough to completely subtract out the vortex to get the background flow. We can try with Levi's area sounding. It shows the hurricane would move to the WNW or NW...exactly like the model showed. The GFS didn't break physics.

[Dean4Storms]

Ridge stronger now than 06z run, this is going to turn back West in the 12z run.......Florida here she comes!

[SouthFLTropics]

Here goes the GFS at 150 hours...Lets just drive Irma right into a brick wall

[toad strangler]

144 Hours and look at the massive amount of ridging in place. If the GFS decides to plow Irma right into that ridge I'm going to quit posting because I just can't fathom that actually happening. It goes against the laws of physics.

Very stout ridging and the GFS SLOWLY is moving S and W from earlier runs

[meriland29]

168

[MGC]

Look at that beautiful trough in the US.....MGC