ATL: IRMA - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What is that blue blob over the Carolinas at 186?

A 500 mb trough (upper level low).

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS is ridiculous.... you go from a trough over the central MS River Valley on one run to the next run over New Joysey @ 204hrs!

[meriland29]

210

[Blown Away]

@180 mile E shift with 12z GFS at @210 hrs...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Still a long ways out, but the GFS might have the right idea. Troughs have saved the US East Coast a lot recently. ECMWF should come around to this solution eventually in my opinion.

[SouthDadeFish]

@180 mile E shift with 12z GFS at @210 hrs...

That's a pretty small shift for a forecast almost nine days out. Get ready for a lot more shifts by the models.

[SouthFLTropics]

At 216 hours it is well East of the 06z. God help Bermuda on this run. Will be ugly.

[AdamFirst]

Still a long ways out, but the GFS might have the right idea. Troughs have saved the US East Coast a lot recently. ECMWF should come around to this solution eventually in my opinion.

May not be so lucky if Jose forms behind it. But that's still in fantasy land at this point.

[tgenius]

Let's see what euro comes back with at 2pm.. if it starts to shift north, then that would be a positive (for the EC, terrible for Bermuda :/), however I'm concerned as we are dealing with 10+ days plus no GIV atmosphere data being fed into any of the models, so I'm cautious to buy in one way or the other.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC looks to potentially target the Carolinas

[fox13weather]

Will have to be a significant shift in the upper air pattern to bring Irma to landfall on the east coast. 240 hour forecasts are a joke, but the general positioning of the upper level features would seem to favor a curve.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Still a long ways out, but the GFS might have the right idea. Troughs have saved the US East Coast a lot recently. ECMWF should come around to this solution eventually in my opinion.

That doesn't mean it will happen this time. Every single except the GFS is shifting south. It's out to lunch IMO

[meriland29]

228

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is the other models don't have a mid level trough in the NE like the GFS has which is another bias of the GFS so one can believe this will be farther southwest than the GFS depicts

[meriland29]

At least most of the models agree on one thing: the size..

[meriland29]

[msbee]

12z UKMET is insanely strong. I have never seen pressures anywhere CLOSE to this on this product. That's a Cat 5.

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2017 0 16.6N 33.3W 988 50
0000UTC 01.09.2017 12 17.8N 35.6W 980 60
1200UTC 01.09.2017 24 18.7N 37.7W 974 67
0000UTC 02.09.2017 36 19.3N 40.1W 969 71
1200UTC 02.09.2017 48 19.3N 42.7W 967 70
0000UTC 03.09.2017 60 19.1N 45.0W 969 69
1200UTC 03.09.2017 72 18.8N 47.2W 964 75
0000UTC 04.09.2017 84 18.3N 49.2W 956 76
1200UTC 04.09.2017 96 17.8N 51.3W 959 72
0000UTC 05.09.2017 108 17.7N 53.4W 956 73
1200UTC 05.09.2017 120 17.8N 55.6W 952 75
0000UTC 06.09.2017 132 18.5N 57.8W 943 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 144 19.5N 60.3W 934 85

Moving WNW near Puerto Rico maybe a weakness in the ridge?

If the above information is at all correct, the center would be north of the islands at 19.5N but would sure give the northern islands some serious weather.
I do not like this

[meriland29]

jogging more NW than last frames

[Blown Away]

12z GFS @500 miles E of 06z @240 hrs...

[meriland29]