ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

So something that concerns me: The Colonial Pipeline that is a key supplier to the South is shutting down today due to Harvey. This pipeline provides 40% of the South's gasoline.

That's going to mean significant shortages. Just when an untold number of people will be needing to gas up to evacuate.

Gas went up 18 cents overnight.

25 cents near me, Tampa Bay Area

[Yellow Evan]

Latest SSD frame suggests T5.5, with OW eye embedded in LG surrounded by B.

[tolakram]

Let's stay on topic please. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/903292639730159616

[Hurricaneman]

Latest SSD frame suggests T5.5, with OW eye embedded in LG surrounded by B.

Looks like a major hurricane and it seems as though Dvorak agrees

[cycloneye]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to come in then the EC. I'm thinking a NE Caribbean clip then a track north of Cuba. Southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas) is definitely under-the-gun for a possible major hurricane hit around Sunday, the 10th. Long way out to have much confidence. It may be recurving as it approaches Florida (like Floyd '99). Can't tell this far out. I'm thinking NW Gulf is probably safe, but not necessarily the NE Gulf.

Well,I am prepared since June 1 but I dont know how many people have done the same.If that forecast occurs,you will not see me in S2K for a good while as the electric and water grids are not so good here.

[Langinbang187]

This is terrible I don't want to be anxious for over a week wondering if a major hurricane is coming to Florida or not.

Florida is far from the only place in play here.

[Raebie]

Link to the Colonial Pipeline article, that could spell major issues for an Irma evacuation down the road.

http://www.wcnc.com/money/consumer/sout ... /469579079

[txwatcher91]

Something not to be overlooked, models all seemingly agree on this becoming a MASSIVE storm with a large wind field. If this does manage to make landfall the effects will be far reaching, and if it doesn't it still could bring strong winds due to the sheer size of the system. Something to watch in the coming days.

[Jelff]

The link below will display a Google + GIS (Geographical Information System) map that shows the past and forecast future track for IRMA. This GIS data comes from NOAA’s nowCOAST server.

Map link: https://bit.ly/2wM1N4f

Each time you open the map the most recent data flows from GIS server(s) to your screen. The black and white satellite basemap updates about every 30 minutes. If any of the basemap is black it simple means it is nighttime in that area.

The overlay layer with the hurricane symbol is ‘on top’ and therefore clickable. If you click one of those symbols then you will see all the attribute data the GIS server has for the thing that you clicked.

The "Map Tips" link in the upper left corner will show you how to turn other GIS data overlay layers on/off, how to make your own custom map link and more tips for getting the most benefit from the map.

[Ken711]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to come in then the EC. I'm thinking a NE Caribbean clip then a track north of Cuba. Southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas) is definitely under-the-gun for a possible major hurricane hit around Sunday, the 10th. Long way out to have much confidence. It may be recurving as it approaches Florida (like Floyd '99). Can't tell this far out. I'm thinking NW Gulf is probably safe, but not necessarily the NE Gulf.

Do you think an Isabel track is possible or more likely staying off shore of NC?

[MissKandi]

Please, for the love of GOD, don't let this come anywhere near the Gulf.... We have had ENOUGH for this year.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/903307421803835392

[KWT]

Latest SSD frame suggests T5.5, with OW eye embedded in LG surrounded by B.

Got a great a presentation for sure, I suspect we aren't far away from having a major and that would be one of the more easterly major canes (probably in the top 10 most easterly?)

As Joe B said, eroding ridges is a classic weakness of the GFS, even in the last 24hrs we've had a classic example of that, the GFS has been about 24hrs too fast in turning this WNW and its only now just happening. That 24hrs delay in the future could well be the difference between hitting the Leewards and missing to the north.

Really at this point anywhere from Cuba upto Newfundland isat risk from Irma, can't unforutanly be any more specific than that. I think the Bermuda threat is a little lower today but now watch the ECM windshield wipe way east!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to come in then the EC. I'm thinking a NE Caribbean clip then a track north of Cuba. Southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas) is definitely under-the-gun for a possible major hurricane hit around Sunday, the 10th. Long way out to have much confidence. It may be recurving as it approaches Florida (like Floyd '99). Can't tell this far out. I'm thinking NW Gulf is probably safe, but not necessarily the NE Gulf.

It would appear that wxman57 and I are on the same thought pattern. I've been thinking Floyd all along. This far out though that is too close to call. Floyd came within a gnats hair of smacking us here on the Treasure Coast.

And tore us up, here in the Cape Fear and Crystal Coasts.

[meriland29]

look at this monster, friggen look at how big this thing is expected to be in comparison to Harvey...

HARVEY


IRMA (240 out)



I mean, what in the...

[KWT]

Irma probabl will become one of those class chunky CV major hurricanes later in its life, after a couple of EWRC I suspect it will probably become quite big, especially once the upper high somewhat relaxes by 120hrs.

[JPmia]

Shows just how rare Irma's track could be:
 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/903273921868439552

[Hurricaneman]

Shows just how rare Irma's track could be:
 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/903273921868439552

It would set a new track precedent

[KWT]

Shows just how rare Irma's track could be:

Well that is pretty exceptional, just goes to back up what others have said in tha this system you can't really use climatology as it will give you an incorrect grip on the set-up. Climo will be more useful by 96-120hrs when the system bottoms out.

Some people have already done this and the results reveal MANY beastly canes, with quite a few making US landfall as well...