ATL: IRMA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Only 1007 mbs in iniciation of Euro?

That's low resolution.

[meriland29]

Only 1007 mbs in iniciation of Euro?

I had the same issue last night, people thought I was looking at the wrong map (850 hPa, wind, MSLP centers)

[SFLcane]

Only 1007 mbs in iniciation of Euro?

Slightly off..

[meriland29]

I am really more concerned about the track, the intensity is harder to predict this far out...

[SouthFLTropics]

Through 24 hours, a hair slower and slightly NE of yesterday's 12z

[sma10]

15N and 50W at 99 Hours on the HWRF

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 11L_34.png

Way south on the HWRF, its slowly been dropping latitude from run to run.

Also worryingly there is no quick WNW turn once it does bottom it out like on the operational GFS and the HMON. Looks closer to the ECM thus far!

This is an excellent point, and one that has not been discussed enough.

I hesitate to completely rule out the GFS solution, as that would be foolhardy. However, there is a red flag to its track that has been consistent for days - like the other models, it does indeed show the SW dip, but immediately upon completion of the dip, unlike the other models it instantly resumes a WNW to NW track. Impossible? No; but seems unlikely that a ridge so strong to induce a SW motion would not even allow a short while of westerly motion before adding a northern component. It literally shows Irma as if she's on a trampoline - down then up. Notice that all the other "quality" models - UK, Euro and HWRF at least show a gentle flattening of the track after the southerly component ceases.

[KWT]

This is an excellent point, and one that has not been discussed enough.

I hesitate to completely rule out the GFS solution, as that would be foolhardy. However, there is a red flag to its track that has been consistent for days - like the other models, it does indeed show the SW dip, but immediately upon completion of the dip, unlike the other models it instantly resumes a WNW to NW track. Impossible? No; but seems unlikely that a ridge so strong to induce a SW motion would not even allow a short while of westerly motion before adding a northern component. It literally shows Irma as if she's on a trampoline - down then up. Notice that all the other "quality" models - UK, Euro and HWRF at least show a gentle flattening of the track after the southerly component ceases.

Even more importantly, that quick WNW track has already been proven to be questionale because its been doing that exact same trick in the last 24hrs and each time Irma kept trucking westwards ignoring the model. Finally it is lifting now, but thats quite a poor run of errors given the timescales involved!

[gatorcane]

regarding SW dip then immediate WNW/NW motion - see NAVGEM. And we all know whatever the NAVGEM shows it will do just the opposite. So the GFS solution is a bit suspect still unless we see the Euro show something like that.

[forecasterjack]

New ECMWF is trying to catch up. Not quite there, but on the right track. Stronger and farther south through the first few frames. Still not strong enough though due to coarse resolution

[SouthFLTropics]

Through 48 hours...A hair slower than yesterday's 12z but pretty much right on track.

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017083112/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_3.png[/img]

[sma10]

Also, there is now growing consensus that little brother Jose will form and follow Irma thru the Central Atlantic. Amazingly, after Irma forming at such an unusually high latitude, it looks like Jose will come up at a very low latitude (8N?)

[WAcyclone]

ECMWF is running. While I still wouldn't put too much stock into deterministic models this far out, it will be fun to watch for sure. Link to full res guidance: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Let me know if y'all have any questions about that site

Are we allowed to save graphics from weather.us and upload them on image hosting sites like imgur in order to permanently display them on storm2k posts?

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF is running. While I still wouldn't put too much stock into deterministic models this far out, it will be fun to watch for sure. Link to full res guidance: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Let me know if y'all have any questions about that site

Are we allowed to save graphics from weather.us and upload them on image hosting sites like imgur in order to permanently display them on storm2k posts?

Yes you are! Share far and wide, including ECMWF! Just can't use for commercial use

[WAcyclone]

ECMWF is running. While I still wouldn't put too much stock into deterministic models this far out, it will be fun to watch for sure. Link to full res guidance: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Let me know if y'all have any questions about that site

Are we allowed to save graphics from weather.us and upload them on image hosting sites like imgur in order to permanently display them on storm2k posts?

Yes you are! Share far and wide, including ECMWF! Just can't use for commercial use

Thanks! I asked because I thought this is not allowed according to the terms and conditions. Will post some maps as soon as the run finishes

[SouthFLTropics]

Going diving WSW to SW after 48 hours and through 72 hours

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017083112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_4.png[/img]

[Blown Away]

Euro 72 hrs... @30 miles E and @20 Miles S of 00z run...

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro 72 hrs... @30 miles E and @20 Miles S of 00z run...

Pretty good consistency at 72 hours. I'll take those numbers any day.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro 72 hrs... @30 miles E and @20 Miles S of 00z run...

Yep. So far it is a bit slower by around half a day or so.

[forecasterjack]

Are we allowed to save graphics from weather.us and upload them on image hosting sites like imgur in order to permanently display them on storm2k posts?

Yes you are! Share far and wide, including ECMWF! Just can't use for commercial use

Thanks! I asked because I thought this is not allowed according to the terms and conditions. Will post some maps as soon as the run finishes

Because we're a free site, our terms are much more lax than wxbell or accuweather, though ideally you'd have a link back to our site if you post images. Enjoy!

[SouthFLTropics]

A hair east of yesterday's 12z

[i mg]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017083112/ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_5.png[/img]