ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CourierPR]

Does the NHC rely solely on satellite now or do they still ask for ship reports from the area of the storm?

[ava_ati]

Well if this system does decide to go inland, I hope it does it in one spot and weakens quickly, I can't take anymore of these riding up the coast/hovering near the coast storms aka Matthew and now Harvey.

[Ken711]

Well if this system does decide to go inland, I hope it does it in one spot and weakens quickly, I can't take anymore of these riding up the coast/hovering near the coast storms aka Matthew and now Harvey.

I'm afraid that's what you may have with Irma's eventual track.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro is pretty much straight west this run barely any wnw movement,

[NotSparta]

Someone mentioned note of a cat 6, of course speculation.. now, I do know that there have been recorded hurricanes that surpassed 170mph and more, my question is, in the event some system is say, 180mph or so, would the NHC keep it at a cat 5 or...

I believe you know the answer to this question. If not, a simple Google search would help you find it. Look up Saffir Simpson Scale.

Simpson who developed the scale will tell you that Ca 5 is all you need. The scale evaluates damage to structures. Cat 5 is sufficient for catastrophic damage. Once you get to sustained winds of 156 or greater, damage will be catastrophic--a higher category is not needed. That's what the man says.

160 mph or 200 mph - they'll both destroy pretty much anything.

[wxman57]

Does the NHC rely solely on satellite now or do they still ask for ship reports from the area of the storm?

For some reason, ships tend to steer way clear of major hurricanes...

[KWT]

Euro is pretty much straight west this run barely any wnw movement,

After it lifts up to just north of 18N it does head near due west through to 48hrs. ECM obviously looking reasonable out to 48hrs.

[GCANE]

[RL3AO]

Does the NHC rely solely on satellite now or do they still ask for ship reports from the area of the storm?

For some reason, ships tend to steer way clear of major hurricanes...

Unless it's a Carnival Cruise.

[wxman57]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to come in then the EC. I'm thinking a NE Caribbean clip then a track north of Cuba. Southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas) is definitely under-the-gun for a possible major hurricane hit around Sunday, the 10th. Long way out to have much confidence. It may be recurving as it approaches Florida (like Floyd '99). Can't tell this far out. I'm thinking NW Gulf is probably safe, but not necessarily the NE Gulf.

Do you think an Isabel track is possible or more likely staying off shore of NC?

Way, way too early to be confident. Can't say.

[hohnywx]

Does the NHC rely solely on satellite now or do they still ask for ship reports from the area of the storm?

For some reason, ships tend to steer way clear of major hurricanes...

From the 11 AM advisory:

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 33.8W

[Janie2006]

Within the eyewall of a Cat 5 just about everything gets flattened, see Camille, Andrew, or Labor Day 1935 for examples. Anyone foolish enough to be outside gets to test the afterlife. So, in terms of wind and your health I should think that the difference between even 160 and 180 is largely academic.

A 215 mph hurricane is probably testing the upper range of possibility in terms of strength (heh, thus far, anyway), and there are important atmospheric and oceanic differences between the Pacific and the Atlantic basin.

Autocorrect!! Eyewall, *not* eyeball. Gah.

[WeatherGuesser]

Does the NHC rely solely on satellite now or do they still ask for ship reports from the area of the storm?

For some reason, ships tend to steer way clear of major hurricanes...

Unless it's a Carnival Cruise.

Or a container ship.

[Gustywind]

TS Irma to become major hurricane threatens Caribbean Islands including Dominica
By TDN Wire Staff
http://thedominican.net/2017/08/hurrica ... lands.html
August 31, 2017 3:34 A.M

Roseau, Dominica (TDN) Tropical storm Irma was on Wednesday night expected to turn into a major hurricane and threaten islands of the Eastern Caribbean.
Forecasters are predicting that Irma will by Friday be packing winds of up to 120 miles per hour even as it continues to churn towards the Islands and turn into a major hurricane.
Key to the forecast is the prediction that the storm will make a hard turn to the South before making landfall. The countries ultimately affected will depend on how far South it turns. By Wednesday night there was a growing sense that it could make a direct hit on any of the countries from Barbados to the South through Dominica, Guadeloupe and Antigua to the North.
Late last night Tropical storm Irma was located at 16.4 degrees North and 31.2 degrees West or about 430 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands. Based on its current speed it is expected to be in the Region by Monday morning after becoming a hurricane on Friday while still in the Atlantic.
Although the different models of the course of the storm are not yet uniform, forecasters note that it will become better defined once the full extent of the turn South is determined.

Authorities in the Islands have begun to warn residents to be on the lookout claiming that this storm is a “once in a fifty year event.”

[KWT]

Great images GCANE, IR shows this as a really tasty hurricane, I'm not sure its strengthened much after that initial burst and the eye isn't quite as deep as it was having been slightly masked by cloud, but still a healthy hurricane for sure!

[CourierPR]

Does the NHC rely solely on satellite now or do they still ask for ship reports from the area of the storm?

For some reason, ships tend to steer way clear of major hurricanes...

From the 11 AM advisory:

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 33.8W[/quote

I did not see that. Thanks.

[Gustywind]

Given SSD numbers... Hurricane Irma Up to 5.5/5.5 IRMA continues to intensify meaning that she has reached cat 3 scale.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
31/1745 UTC 17.1N 34.1W T5.5/5.5 IRMA
31/1145 UTC 16.7N 33.1W T4.0/4.0 IRMA

[NotSparta]

AL, 11, 2017083118, , BEST, 0, 171N, 343W, 100, 967, HU

Irma is now a major hurricane, the second in a week

[sunnyday]

I've been following Irma here and have seen such a huge range of possible landfall locations and storm intensities ! When should we expect model agreement/final predictions for this storm?

[hohnywx]

For some reason, ships tend to steer way clear of major hurricanes...

From the 11 AM advisory:

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 33.8W[/quote

I did not see that. Thanks.

Yes, it's not in the public advisory, but rather the forecast advisory. You're welcome.