ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

[stormhunter7]

The 588 and 591DM backs way down @240.... Think a final destination toward the upper Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Panama City.

seems to follow what is would be the weak area forcasted to spin up in GOM? Central gulf coast would be prime target i would think?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well I'm trying to just breath a bit here...
GFS - Bermuda up to Maine
ECMWF - hits the leeward islands -Shoots the slot - into Key West


Yep- 12-1400 mile cone sounds about right- Not make light of it. But Euro has been consistently cutting off the low over the midwest and retrograding it. That's the big enchilada on the track for the US. We shall see, still too far out.

Nonetheless I CONSISTENTLY don't like the Euro solutions lately- That is verifying

[Steve]

The 588 and 591DM backs way down @240.... Think a final destination toward the upper Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Panama City.

Yeah, maybe even all the way west to Morgan City or so to Panama City but most likely somewhere between Bay St. Louis and Pensacola. I'd love to know whether the European slows down or keeps on moving. If it keeps on moving, it's going to still have a western component at landfall.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro run animation

[WAcyclone]

ECMWF HRES animation between hour 108 and 240:



Source: weather.us

[txwatcher91]

The GFS nor the Euro want to budge on their 6 to 10 day ideas. In the end I think they both will give a little and we end up with something in the middle.

Agreed, I think we end up seeing a storm in the Bahamas that comes close to FL but gets pulled N by a weakness and heads for NC.

[ConvergenceZone]

God. I hope and pray this goes out to sea. After watching a video of two cats swimming in a flooded neighborhood and trying desperately to find something above the flooded water to swim to, I just can't take too much more of this.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF HRES animation between hour 108 and 240:



Source: weather.us

Awesome animation you can use the menus to the left of the image to select other parameters like simulated radar, 700mb RH, winds, lots of good stuff in there!

[Kingarabian]

So a model that overdoes troughing (GFS) vs a model that over does ridging (Euro)...

[AtlanticWind]

The GFS nor the Euro want to budge on their 6 to 10 day ideas. In the end I think they both will give a little and we end up with something in the middle.

Agreed, I think we end up seeing a storm in the Bahamas that comes close to FL but gets pulled N by a weakness and heads for NC.

I am thinking this more a one or the other type scenario

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS nor the Euro want to budge on their 6 to 10 day ideas. In the end I think they both will give a little and we end up with something in the middle.

Agreed, I think we end up seeing a storm in the Bahamas that comes close to FL but gets pulled N by a weakness and heads for NC.

[caneseddy]

ECMWF HRES animation between hour 108 and 240:



Source: weather.us

Awesome animation you can use the menus to the left of the image to select other parameters like simulated radar, 700mb RH, winds, lots of good stuff in there!

What's fascinating about that run is that if Irma does not take that little west jog in the Bahamas it is on a beeline straight into South Florida....we shall see.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z Euro run animation

Thanks for this animation. Notice Irma rides inside the 588dm and at the last run position it has backed way off and even east of Florida. With that I would have to surmise with the trough to its west it makes a sharp turn northward in the SE GOM to follow the least path of resistance or the mean position between the High and the Trough.

[SouthFLTropics]

[WAcyclone]

ECMWF HRES animation between hour 108 and 240:

http://i.imgur.com/RYhhE8s.gif

Source: weather.us

Awesome animation you can use the menus to the left of the image to select other parameters like simulated radar, 700mb RH, winds, lots of good stuff in there!

Yeah, but it takes a lot of time to download and resize every single frame. To create animations, a "make GIF" or at least a "download whole run" button would make things a lot easier I will probably do another GIF once the control run is out...

[tgenius]

Does anyone have a general idea of the forward speed at the end of that Euro Run? Curious to see how fast across the FL Straights she would be going.

[txwatcher91]

This is last night's run, hopefully the new EPS will be out soon and someone can post a graphic or summary of what they show.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is last night's run, hopefully the new EPS will be out soon and someone can post a graphic or summary of what they show.

I missed it...Been looking at too many charts and maps!!!

[Panfan1995]

I am sorry but this storm just does not seem logical to move into GOM. That high at 240hrs seems way over done and the more logical approach like for wx Fran or Hugo seems to be a more accurate review. I think someone said a turn up the EC and toward NC was on basis given historu