ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

How many hours out did the Euro start to peg Harvey on the Texas coast consistently?

[Kingarabian]

How many hours out did the Euro start to peg the Texas coast consistently?

Like 72 hours before landfall.

[marciacubed]

Which model did the best at predicting the landfall of Harvey? I live in SE Fl and the Euro is not favorable for us but the GFS makes me less nervous. I have been watching this page for so many years. Frances, Jean and Wilma were horrible but this storm could be even worse so it concerns me.

[redneck51]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Not Cycloneye but I am in PR. IF there's one forecast I take seriously it's yours (long time time lurker).
We already started our preparations..

[MetroMike]

First time since 2010 to have two majors in August (And the first time since 2004 to have three if Gert is upgraded post-season)

If I am not mistaken it is not officially a major yet, cat 2 as of now.

[SouthFLTropics]

Which model did the best at predicting the landfall of Harvey? I live in SE Fl and the Euro is not favorable for us but the GFS makes me less nervous. I have been watching this page for so many years. Frances, Jean and Wilma were horrible but this storm could be even worse so it concerns me.

It's hard to compare Harvey to Irma. When the models were trying to nail down Harvey's track it wasn't very well formed yet. Irma is already well established so I would guess that the long range forecast track will be more reliable than what Harvey's was.

[AxaltaRacing24]

First time since 2010 to have two majors in August (And the first time since 2004 to have three if Gert is upgraded post-season)

If I am not mistaken it is not officially a major yet, cat 2 as of now.

A major at 5 or 11 is almost a guarantee.

[weathaguyry]

The bad part is that if Irma is doing an EWRC now, then the wind field will expand, and she will have plenty of time to strengthen more

[RL3AO]

The bad part is that if Irma is doing an EWRC now, then the wind field will expand, and she will have plenty of time to strengthen more

I wouldn't be surprised if the run at cat 5 occurs after a 2nd Ewrc.

[redneck51]

So if you believe the Euro strong ridge scenario, then either Puerto Rico and Hispaniola have to disrupt the core of a major hurricane or its lights out in Florida.

It would be lights out in PR and/or Hispanolia, too. A lot of people on both islands..

[SoupBone]

How many hours out did the Euro start to peg Harvey on the Texas coast consistently?

After landfall? They were all horrible for Harvey.

[Aric Dunn]

The bad part is that if Irma is doing an EWRC now, then the wind field will expand, and she will have plenty of time to strengthen more

I wouldn't be surprised if the run at cat 5 occurs after a 2nd Ewrc.

yeah and wsw to SW dips in track often are a result of the right conditions being present for that to happen... many examples.. but wilma and katrina come to mind..

[txwatcher91]

The bad part is that if Irma is doing an EWRC now, then the wind field will expand, and she will have plenty of time to strengthen more

Irma may have time to go through 2 complete EWRC cycles before reaching PR. Look at the moisture tap to the south and the inflow from that. This is key to growing a large hurricane in addition to the EWRC that will happen in the coming days.

[weathaguyry]

The bad part is that if Irma is doing an EWRC now, then the wind field will expand, and she will have plenty of time to strengthen more

I wouldn't be surprised if the run at cat 5 occurs after a 2nd Ewrc.

yeah and wsw to SW dips in track often are a result of the right conditions being present for that to happen... many examples.. but wilma and katrina come to mind..

Also Isabel when she got that perfectly round eye, although she never really took a wsw dip.

[cycloneye]

Last visible image as the sun sets.

[Kingarabian]

When is the earliest that recon will start flying in?

[Gustywind]

First time since 2010 to have two majors in August (And the first time since 2004 to have three if Gert is upgraded post-season)

If I am not mistaken it is not officially a major yet, cat 2 as of now.

A major at 5 or 11 is almost a guarantee.

Looks like numbers have increased significantly... so seems highly possible IMO.
31/1745 UTC 17.1N 34.1W T5.5/5.5 IRMA -- Atlantic

[KWT]

The bad part is that if Irma is doing an EWRC now, then the wind field will expand, and she will have plenty of time to strengthen more

Irma may have time to go through 2 complete EWRC cycles before reaching PR. Look at the moisture tap to the south and the inflow from that. This is key to growing a large hurricane in addition to the EWRC that will happen in the coming days.

Ah thats the unknowable, it could end up having multiple EWRC one after another, equally it may have a couple of really rapid EWRC and you'd barely know its even happened, abit like Harvey.

[Gustywind]

Islanders please be on your guard and stayed tuned. HURRICANE IRMA seems to be a possible threat for the EC etc.


NEW - WEATHER WATCH HURRICANE IRMA: Could Strengthen into an Extremely Dangerous Category 4 System

31 Aug 2017
Published in Soualiga News
http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... ystem.html

SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) out of Miami reported on Thursday that Hurricane Irma strengthened rapidly to a Category 2 system due to some weather elements in its current area.

Irma is expected to move over some cooler waters on Friday and further strengthening hopefully according to NHC will level off. Thereafter, over the weekend and into Monday, September 4, Irma will move over warmer waters which is expected to promote further strengthening of the hurricane making it an extremely dangerous Category 4 system East of the Caribbean island chain on Tuesday, September 5.

A high ridge weather system to the north of the hurricane will influence its track towards the Caribbean island keeping it moving westward towards the Leeward/Windward Islands. It’s still too far out and too early to say where exactly Irma will end up and how big the hurricane will be when it’s about 500 miles away from the islands.

Crown Weather said on Thursday that, “First and foremost, Irma is a MAJOR threat to the central and northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from Tuesday through Wednesday. The southward shifts in the forecast track by the European operational and European ensemble guidance are very worrisome as it is looking increasingly more likely that the core of a major hurricane will move directly over the northeastern Caribbean around Tuesday into Wednesday. Irma is a very serious threat to the central and northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.”

Crown Weather adds, “The islands I am most concerned with right now for a major hurricane impact are Guadeloupe, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Martin, Anguilla, the entire US & British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Please monitor the progress of Irma extremely closely and it may be a good idea to go through your hurricane prep kit and be prepared for a major hurricane impact.”

Now is a good time to review your hurricane preparatory kit.

[Blown Away]

Yikes, Cat 5 towards NE Caribbean... Cat 3 moving towards SFL... Ugh...