ATL: IRMA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

What is interesting is despite the fact there is obvious spread on the ECM, nearly every run follows a broadly similar pattern in that they move up WNW between day 8-10, of course where they are depends on how quickly it turns from its WSW motion.

I also noticed on the 12z EPS Ensembles that in days 8-10 that the trough or cut-off low weakens and lifts out and ridging attempts to build in.

[TheStormExpert]

Like some have mentioned, I'm starting to think that Floyd(1999) is likely a good analog storm right now in terms of track and maybe intensity. Which would mean a scare to Florida but not a close scrape like Matthew(2016) then watch out North Carolina.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903343877758885890

[Blown Away]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903343877758885890

Can you read that most are NE of SFL?

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET really strong:

[floridasun78]

i toold by Craig Setzer from wfor that not good go by models after five day their tooo many error with them

[pgoss11]

Does the public have access to the UKMET runs?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I noticed that as well, please correct me if I am wrong but I think someone had said a bit earlier that the EURO was not part of that goup.

[floridasun78]

let not nuts with models that go more 5 days their alot error with them

[chris_fit]

UKMET Looks like quite a bit more North than previous runs?

[tgenius]

12Z UKMET really strong:

Seems a decent clip north of the Euro 12Z that just ran (Can't remember of UKMET runs after Euro or before, lol)

[gatorcane]

12Z Australian ACCESS global model similar to the Euro and has it over or in vicinity of Puerto Rico at hour 150:

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View

[KWT]

Yep the 12z UKMO is indeed to the north of its previous runs. I'd suggest on that run its probably going to be a East coast threat. Based on the modelling I've seen tonight I feel the eCM is probably still too far south, the GFS is way too far north and something like the UKMO/CMC seems to go a good middle ground.

[HURRICANELONNY]

If this trough is as strong as forecast. Then at least I will be in the clear. I don't need a major Hurricane coming my way:
Next week: large upper level trough is forecast to dig across the
Ohio/Tennessee valleys into mid next week, driving another unseasonable
frontal trough into the state. Exact details vary between models,
but overall the trend will be towards a wet and unsettled pattern
across South Florida for the middle to latter half of next week.

[SFLcane]

As you can see here most models are north something's soon gotta give Euro on its own for now

 https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/903351848815525888

[AutoPenalti]

As you can see here most models are north something's soon gotta give Euro on its own for now

 https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/903351848815525888

Nah, I think I'm siding with the Euro on this one, GFS seems to have wacky runs from time to time, Euro at least has been consistent.

I guess we'll know later on in time who wins.

[caneseddy]

As you can see here most models are north something's soon gotta give Euro on its own for now

 https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/903351848815525888

Nah, I think I'm siding with the Euro on this one, GFS seems to have wacky runs from time to time, Euro at least has been consistent.

I guess we'll know later on in time who wins.

Per the 5pm discussion the NHC is giving more weight to the Euro and ensembles as of now.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has climo mostly on its side though. Too early to write it off.

[KWT]

I think we've already seen the GFS and other models be way too quick at turning this thing WNW right now, no reason to think it won't be doing the EXACT same thing in 4 days time, in fact I'll bank that being the case given the GFS and CMC well known bias for eroding ridging too rapidly.

With that being said, I actually quite like the CMC 12z run track.

GFS only has climatology on its side right now, once it gets to 16N and 50W it becomes much more evenly spread.

[Fountainguy97]

Whenever I see a spread like that I normally take a %70 euro and %30 gfs blend. EPS especially has been very steady BUT you cant deny a tiny northward shift with 12z euro and its ensemble. expect that to continue while GFS makes more substantial shifts SW