ATL: IRMA - Models

[Fountainguy97]

Whenever I see a spread like that I normally take a %70 euro and %30 gfs blend. EPS especially has been very steady BUT you cant deny a tiny northward shift with 12z euro and its ensemble. expect that to continue while GFS makes more substantial shifts SW

[HURRICANELONNY]

If the euro gets this right.Which this time I don't think so. It would be a travesty for the American models. Like when the euro was the only real global model that had Sandy turning west.

[Blown Away]

Hard not to consider all those 18z guidance models going N of Caribbean and away from CONUS.

[meriland29]

how is that ridge looking? weaker or stronger?

[northjaxpro]

Well, obviously the latest EURO is extremely concerning for everyone down the road. I have been trying to not lock on past day 7 from now, however my biggest concern may be unfortunately manifesting
Late last week, the ENSO forecasts indeed were projecting a +NAO during the next 10-14 day period

Looking at the model run, that is one heck of strong ridge and the axis extends west to the Eastern Gulf on that last frame @ 240 hours. Also, if that EURO run verofies, that trough weakens and actually is a cut off from the mean flow. Still a bit early , but everyone needs to be very alert and start thinking about potential preps NOW!! Especially immediately our friends down in the Islands first and foremost!

Also, on top of all of this, EURO has a strengthening Jose riding shotgun on his big sis' rear! Anxious days potentially ahead!!

[tropicwatch]

From the latest NHC Irma discussion: "Irma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the
hurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the
next few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. At
long range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the
strength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south
differences in the global models. I am inclined to stay on the
southwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent
forecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble. In addition, the strongest
members of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the
consensus, giving some confidence in that approach."

[KWT]

Hard not to consider all those 18z guidance models going N of Caribbean and away from CONUS.

To be fair alot of those models are based of the GFS, so what the GFS does, broadly they will follow. With that being said the CMC and UKMO also both go north of the Caribbean and I think that is probably what will happen.

I'm sticking with my Irene analog personally.

[SFLcane]

EPS also seems to have shifted majority recurving few into Florida. Euro next 2-3 runs will cave this kinda track is so rare it's rediculous a major this far out and it's current latitude are you kidding me. We shall see

[Michele B]

Just looking at possible analogs based on model projections some one has said Floyd and Donna which if the synoptic set up stays what the Euro is now showing
would be very possible. Also Charley, but as we know he made a right jog 4 hours before landfall. Those things are hard to forecast- This looks like such a humungous
size storm that if any portion of Irma makes landfall most of the peninsula will be affected in some way-

Oh, I can TELL ya why Charley took that "right turn!"

Hurricanes follow warm water....the Peace River empties out right into GoM right there, and the water is very warm and still pretty deep.

Old-timers around here claim it's what brought Donna here and also drew Charley in. We DO NOT want to see a storm come up the west coast of FL, for fear it would get drawn up the Peace River, too.

[gatorcane]

In case anybody wants to see what the long-range Euro showed for Harvey..animation below. Not bad really considering all of the other models were buried into Central America with some showing northern Mexico. Granted the Euro did back off this northern turn for a few more runs before showing it again:

[weathaguyry]

Hard not to consider all those 18z guidance models going N of Caribbean and away from CONUS.

To be fair alot of those models are based of the GFS, so what the GFS does, broadly they will follow. With that being said the CMC and UKMO also both go north of the Caribbean and I think that is probably what will happen.

I'm sticking with my Irene analog personally.

Do you think this will run up the east coast? Me and my Sandy PTSD would like to know

[Blinhart]

Just looking at possible analogs based on model projections some one has said Floyd and Donna which if the synoptic set up stays what the Euro is now showing
would be very possible. Also Charley, but as we know he made a right jog 4 hours before landfall. Those things are hard to forecast- This looks like such a humungous
size storm that if any portion of Irma makes landfall most of the peninsula will be affected in some way-

What about Bob 1980.

[SFLcane]

Hard to bet against the euro but I'll be floored if Irma manages to make it into the se Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

EPS also seems to have shifted majority recurving few into Florida. Euro next 2-3 runs will cave this kinda track is so rare it's rediculous a major this far out and it's current latitude are you kidding me. We shall see

You're saying this because of climo, while true, what we may be seeing is an unusual weather pattern.

[Ivanhater]

EPS also seems to have shifted majority recurving few into Florida. Euro next 2-3 runs will cave this kinda track is so rare it's rediculous a major this far out and it's current latitude are you kidding me. We shall see

Based on the synoptic pattern..I'm not sure why it's so rediculous? Hell..if we took the models and ensembles from this storm last week while most were watching Harvey...this would be well on its way to the azores now....

[KWT]

EPS also seems to have shifted majority recurving few into Florida. Euro next 2-3 runs will cave this kinda track is so rare it's rediculous a major this far out and it's current latitude are you kidding me. We shall see

I'd once again IGNORE the current postion and try to take it as if it was a new storm at 16N and 50W, because that is roughly where it is going to be. For example Andrew I think passed through just such a position, as did many other major hurricanes...

ECM ensembles are more spread out on the 12z suite, though still a very solid amount of storms hit the US from Florida upto the NE states. Not too many total recurves, you could count them on one hand out of 50 members.

[hohnywx]

i toold by Craig Setzer from wfor that not good go by models after five day their tooo many error with them

You shouldn't have to be told that...anyone who is a member here should know that. Models have an average error spread of >100 miles after 120 hours.

Considering this storm is <240 hours out from impacting mainland US, that should be a given.

[sma10]

Hard not to consider all those 18z guidance models going N of Caribbean and away from CONUS.

To be fair alot of those models are based of the GFS, so what the GFS does, broadly they will follow. With that being said the CMC and UKMO also both go north of the Caribbean and I think that is probably what will happen.

I'm sticking with my Irene analog personally.

The real problem is that there are a lot of models, but very few of high quality. And even fewer of high quality past 5 days.

[gatorcane]

In case anybody wants to see what the long-range Euro showed for Harvey..animation below. Not bad really considering all of the other models were buried into Central America with some showing northern Mexico. Granted the Euro did back off this northern turn for a few more runs before showing it again:

Here is what the GFS had in a similar timeframe for Harvey.

[hohnywx]

Hard not to consider all those 18z guidance models going N of Caribbean and away from CONUS.

Actually, it's pretty easy to not consider them. The only worthwhile ones on there are the UKMET, GFS, HWRF and the consensus models.