ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

For those of you that like to use the climatology websites.. I cant recall there ever being a category 5 east of the isalnds..?

According to this map, it shows one has.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -history-0

Edit. It was Hugo in 1989

alright so hugo is the only cat 5 ever east of the isalnds.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

For those of you that like to use the climatology websites.. I cant recall there ever being a category 5 east of the isalnds..?

Ivan?

Hugo in 1989

Luis also came close in 1995

[Snowman67]

For those of you that like to use the climatology websites.. I cant recall there ever being a category 5 east of the isalnds..?

Ivan?

Nope. Hugo 1989

[Ivanhater]

I would appreciate some of your expert opinions regarding the Northern Caribbean islands. Could that please be included in your comments whenever you can? because it has to pass us before it gets close to the USA.We in the islands would appreciate regular input on this.
Thanks so much

There has been discussion on impact on the islands..even professional track forecast from wxman57. Discussion on possible impacts on the U.S. will be discussed as well.

[tolakram]

Hugo was 5 east of the islands. This was about the time of the infamous recon mission that almost ended in disaster.

[KWT]

For those of you that like to use the climatology websites.. I cant recall there ever being a category 5 east of the isalnds..?

According to this map, it shows one has.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -history-0

Edit. It was Hugo in 1989

alright so hugo is the only cat 5 ever east of the isalnds.

Isabel was a 5 east of the longtitude of the E.caribbean...of course it was to the north as well but became a cat-5 around 60W.

[Aric Dunn]

well would you look at that.. an ERC in progress..

[WeatherGuesser]

Hugo was around 14.6 54.6 but it only stayed a 5 for about 6 hours.

http://www.weather.gov/ilm/HurricaneHugo

So, if Irma makes it before 54 ....

[sunnyday]

Aren't most models except the Euro leaning towards a recurve? Unless things really change, isn't the likely outcome at this point no U S landfall?

[1900hurricane]

Hugo '89 and Isabel '03 are the easternmost category 5s at 54.6ºW and 54.8ºW, respectively.

[jdjaguar]

Aren't most models except the Euro leaning towards a recurve? Unless things really change, isn't the likely outcome at this point no U S landfall?

never discount the Euro.

so, in short, likely outcome still uncertain.

be watchful, and plan accordingly.

[KWT]

Indeed Aric, did think it was odd that the eye was clouding over. The heat content here probably isn't supportive of a much stronger hurricane than it already had become so the inner dynamics prompted a somewhat early EWRC.

Will be interesting to see how quickly it rebounds, given its the first one I suspect it may not be too long of a process, especially as its not had any land interaction with its core.

[Gustywind]

I would appreciate some of your expert opinions regarding the Northern Caribbean islands. Could that please be included in your comments whenever you can? because it has to pass us before it gets close to the USA.We in the islands would appreciate regular input on this.
Thanks so much

EXCELLENT point of vue Msbee. Hopefully we have plenty of names like Aric, Cycloneye, etc. Hope that many others will care their bright opinions because of Irma continue to may be a potential dangerous threat for the next 4-5 days in the EC.

[msbee]

I would appreciate some of your expert opinions regarding the Northern Caribbean islands. Could that please be included in your comments whenever you can? because it has to pass us before it gets close to the USA.We in the islands would appreciate regular input on this.
Thanks so much

EXCELLENT point of vue Msbee. Hopefully we have plenty of names like Aric, Cycloneye, etc. Hope that many others will care their bright opinions because of Irma continue to may be a potential dangerous threat for the next 4-5 days in the EC.

Hi Gusty yes I agree. I realize everyone focuses on the USA, but for those of us living in the islands we need information too. and we are the ones on the possible firing line first

[Gustywind]

I would appreciate some of your expert opinions regarding the Northern Caribbean islands. Could that please be included in your comments whenever you can? because it has to pass us before it gets close to the USA.We in the islands would appreciate regular input on this.
Thanks so much

EXCELLENT point of vue Msbee. Hopefully we have plenty of names like Aric, Cycloneye, etc. Hope that many others will care their bright opinions because of Irma continue to may be a potential dangerous threat for the next 4-5 days in the EC.

Hi Gusty yes I agree. I realize everyone focuses on the USA, but for those of us living in the islands we need information too. and we are the ones on the possible firing line first

Absolutely Barbara you're 100% right.

[hohnywx]

Aren't most models except the Euro leaning towards a recurve? Unless things really change, isn't the likely outcome at this point no U S landfall?

The GFS landfalls in Canada. The Canadian in the Carolinas.

So no.

[Ivanhater]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to come in then the EC. I'm thinking a NE Caribbean clip then a track north of Cuba. Southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas) is definitely under-the-gun for a possible major hurricane hit around Sunday, the 10th. Long way out to have much confidence. It may be recurving as it approaches Florida (like Floyd '99). Can't tell this far out. I'm thinking NW Gulf is probably safe, but not necessarily the NE Gulf.

Bumping this up for you msbee in case you missed it. Professional track forecast for the Islands have and are being discussed in addition to possible U.S impacts

[Chris90]

Hi everyone, this is my first post. I joined back in June but I tend to just read through the topics to learn because I don't know nearly as much as others on here.

I was just wondering if anyone could tell me when the floater on Irma will start with 30 minute imagery? Right now it still seems to be 3 hour imagery. Is there a certain longitude it has to reach to get into range for 30 minute imagery?

[msbee]

Luis/Cycloneye, my forecast takes the eye very close to northern Puerto Rico next Thursday morning as a strong Cat 4. Prepare for a possible hurricane impact.

Waiting for the 12z GFS to come in then the EC. I'm thinking a NE Caribbean clip then a track north of Cuba. Southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas) is definitely under-the-gun for a possible major hurricane hit around Sunday, the 10th. Long way out to have much confidence. It may be recurving as it approaches Florida (like Floyd '99). Can't tell this far out. I'm thinking NW Gulf is probably safe, but not necessarily the NE Gulf.

Bumping this up for you msbee in case you missed it. Professional track forecast for the Islands have and are being discussed in addition to possible U.S impacts

thanks wxman57 much appreciated

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/903359441764048902