ATL: IRMA - Models

[CrazyC83]

The westward shifts with the GFS are not done. The fact it is now showing a cutoff low over the Eastern US suggests it is trending more toward the Euro.

I guess you can't go against the Euro.

Somewhere in there, it will be a case of Meet Me in the Middle. The operational ECMWF is left of most of the ensembles.

[AxaltaRacing24]

How big does that look in terms of dimensions, 600 miles in diameter + ?

That would be a $200 billion + disaster. That seems an accurate estimate.

Well I don't doubt its destructiveness. 200 billion though you think? Katrina was the most costly ever recorded at 108 billion, and you estimate double?

Yes. New England and NY are MUCH more populated than Katrina's impact area.

[SunnyThoughts]

2 epic disasters at opposing ends of our country just weeks apart. Can't even fathom it.

[Raebie]

IDK which model is worse...

[TheStormExpert]

Local met. Steve Weagle said on the evening newscast that the Euro is likely overdoing the ridging and the GFS is likely underdoing it.

[RL3AO]

Not sure if I've seen the GFS make two east coast hurricane landfalls in one run before. That's unusually crazy even for the GFS.

Sigh...out to sea.

[sma10]

Round 2?

Jose wants to get in on the CONUS action.

Interestingly, at T240, the euro and gfs are separated from boston to key west. .... But they are almost on top of each other with Jose. Lol

[RL3AO]

Local met. Steve Weagle said on the evening newscast that the Euro is likely overdoing the ridging and the GFS is likely underdoing it.

That's what I'm worried about in NC. Euro ensembles have a whole lot of tracks down the middle.

[AxaltaRacing24]

IDK which model is worse...

With the amount of land hit and getting into the Gulf, I'd say the Euro but due to the population of the NE, the GFS might be just as bad if not worse.

[Airboy]

Florida/South Carolina hit feels a bit more likely.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Florida/South Carolina hit feels a bit more likely.

Especially if the GFS keeps this up. Incorporating the Euro and GFS flaws, the chances of a landfall anywhere near VA through FL increased today.

[Langinbang187]

Way too far out but I feel Euro/GFS meet in the middle. Floyd like track wouldn't shock me when all is said & done.

[tgenius]

Though if we play out the Euro to far south, GFS too far north, they may settle on FL, but I'm not so sure it would be South FL, might be an Orlando/JAX part of the state, now if the Euro does pan out, then SFL is gonna be in for it.

[KWT]

Local met. Steve Weagle said on the evening newscast that the Euro is likely overdoing the ridging and the GFS is likely underdoing it.

I suspect that is probably a pretty good summary of where we are at, if you want a visual of a model that is kind of in the middle I'd say the 12z CMC is pretty close to the middle of the consensus.

I'm going to stay up to see what the GFS ensembles say then its bedtime, its midnight on the other side of the Atlantic.

[Panfan1995]

This is more of a SC/NC storm like Hugo

[p1nheadlarry]

The westward shifts with the GFS are not done. The fact it is now showing a cutoff low over the Eastern US suggests it is trending more toward the Euro.

I guess you can't go against the Euro.

Somewhere in there, it will be a case of Meet Me in the Middle. The operational ECMWF is left of most of the ensembles.

Seems to be the UKMET for now

[clambite]

Not sure if I've seen the GFS make two east coast hurricane landfalls in one run before. That's unusually crazy even for the GFS.

Sigh...out to sea.

I'm in Morehead City so.... out to sea is fine with me !

[p1nheadlarry]

This is more of a SC/NC storm like Hugo

Not really. Hugo bee-lined right into the east coast. If anything it's more like Floyd or Irene. Hugo was more like Fran and Isabel.

[northjaxpro]

Local met. Steve Weagle said on the evening newscast that the Euro is likely overdoing the ridging and the GFS is likely underdoing it.

Well, this is what I call sitting on the fence.

[SunnyThoughts]

I hope both models are wrong and the system turns out to sea, but it looks as though at this time, somewhere between the central gulf and New England area is going to be hit by the second major hurricane within weeks of each other.