ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

Possible analog: Hurricane Donna 1960

Was not a major hurricane as far east as Irma. But developed as a depression on Aug 29th in the vicinity of the Cabo Verde Islands. Did become a major while still in the central Atlantic. Euro model not that far different from trans-Atlantic trek taken by Donna. Her highest intensity Cat 4.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png

[1900hurricane]

The eye doesn't have the same warmth it had earlier, but the CDO has markedly cooled recently. I'm thinking 95 or 100 kt for 00Z with either a 5.0 or 5.5/5.5 (depending on how TAFB handles the black shade). Irma remains a rather small system.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

'Ol Irma seems quite content just riding along that 28C Isotherm. I'd guess the young Gal will likely maintain present level of intensity until crossing between 45W-50W. Here's where the octane looks to increase a tad and i'd guess when we see her reach Cat. 4. That cut off low to its northwest looks to be filling and just getting squeezed out of the way. I dont think it'll continue to drop south ahead of Irma but likely soon make a small cyclonic loop and be forced back north and into the Westerlies. Beyond that feature, I'm just not seeing much/anything to inhibit further strengthening (other than land itself) for at least several days. Hmmmm, I'm beginning to question if my low pressure guess (919mb I think?) might not have been quite low enough?! Oh well, I'll just sit pat with my guess, and if I don't win the million dollars??? Hey, the tax implications would've just been a nightmare to deal with anyhow LOL. Feels really odd to watch such a strong system so far east, but one that has the potential to impact so many.

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track stays at 100kts at 17.5N.

AL, 11, 2017090100, , BEST, 0, 175N, 351W, 100, 967, HU

[CycloneCaptain]

'Ol Irma seems quite content just riding along that 28C Isotherm. I'd guess the young Gal will likely maintain present level of intensity until crossing between 45W-50W. Here's where the octane looks to increase a tad and i'd guess when we see her reach Cat. 4. That cut off low to its northwest looks to be filling and just getting squeezed out of the way. I dont think it'll continue to drop south ahead of Irma but likely soon make a small cyclonic loop and be forced back north and into the Westerlies. Beyond that feature, I'm just not seeing much/anything to inhibit further strengthening (other than land itself) for at least several days. Hmmmm, I'm beginning to question if my low pressure guess (919mb I think?) might not have been quite low enough?! Oh well, I'll just sit pat with my guess, and if I don't win the million dollars??? Hey, the tax implications would've just been a nightmare to deal with anyhow LOL. Feels really odd to watch such a strong system so far east, but one that has the potential to impact so many.

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

Never really thought about it to be perfectly honest - but I guess we do the same things with cars, don't we?

[Blinhart]

Here are some of the Hurricanes of the past 30 years that I can think of that this mean lady (female dog) might remind me of the track she can take.

Hugo, Ike, Matthew, Rita, Katrina, Andrew, Lili. The one that the projection reminds me the most of is Hurricane Ike, but any of these are just scary. I just want her to find an opening in the ridge above her and go out to sea and just spread out before making some type of landfall in Europe or Asia.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

'Ol Irma seems quite content just riding along that 28C Isotherm. I'd guess the young Gal will likely maintain present level of intensity until crossing between 45W-50W. Here's where the octane looks to increase a tad and i'd guess when we see her reach Cat. 4. That cut off low to its northwest looks to be filling and just getting squeezed out of the way. I dont think it'll continue to drop south ahead of Irma but likely soon make a small cyclonic loop and be forced back north and into the Westerlies. Beyond that feature, I'm just not seeing much/anything to inhibit further strengthening (other than land itself) for at least several days. Hmmmm, I'm beginning to question if my low pressure guess (919mb I think?) might not have been quite low enough?! Oh well, I'll just sit pat with my guess, and if I don't win the million dollars??? Hey, the tax implications would've just been a nightmare to deal with anyhow LOL. Feels really odd to watch such a strong system so far east, but one that has the potential to impact so many.

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

Never really thought about it to be perfectly honest - but I guess we do the same things with cars, don't we?

Maybe YOU do...I just kinda feel awkward when people inevitably start making the "storms are temperamental--just like women!" comparisons.

[wxman57]

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

They're all "it" to me. Just a non-living thing.

[Sciencerocks]

The eye doesn't have the same warmth it had earlier, but the CDO has markedly cooled recently. I'm thinking 95 or 100 kt for 00Z with either a 5.0 or 5.5/5.5 (depending on how TAFB handles the black shade). Irma remains a rather small system.

Reminds me of Iris of 2001. It is just different compared to Andrew and charley which were also small cyclones but this when discussing the core is even smaller.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Is it just me, or do people on this site call hurricanes with female names "girl" or "gal" a lot more than they call hurricanes with male names "boy" or "guy"? Not saying you have to stop doing so...as long as you don't start saying "Irma engulfed miles of coastline in her moist mouth..." like they said about Carla

They're all "it" to me. Just a non-living thing.

The best thing for a scientist to do. I kinda am bad about personifying even the supermassive black holes I study, so you're a better scientist than I am in that regard...

[Blown Away]

I can remember being on Storm2k watching Ike in the middle of the Atlantic, saying no way he goes over the Hebert Box, under Florida, and into the GOM... I would have bet everything on it! Irma has the same look...

[Kazmit]

The eye doesn't have the same warmth it had earlier, but the CDO has markedly cooled recently. I'm thinking 95 or 100 kt for 00Z with either a 5.0 or 5.5/5.5 (depending on how TAFB handles the black shade). Irma remains a rather small system.

Reminds me of Iris of 2001. It is just different compared to Andrew and charley which were also small cyclones but this when discussing the core is even smaller.

A few EWRCs will end up increasing the size by quite a bit. It's a classic occurrence with Cape Verde hurricanes.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Doesn't make me feel so hot that all the more intense storms hit Florida on this map

The Euro is pretty much down the middle of the cluster through Florida/Cuba.

I saw that too. Last year with Mathew the stores got so crazy. Do you think I'm over doing it if I go out tomorrow and start getting water and batteries at BJ'S just in case? I hate going hurricane shopping when the masses start to figure it out. Ok so I guess my question is if it's too early?

You can never be prepared to early...you can definitely be too late though, so I'd say if you have the time and resources go for it!

[eastcoastFL]

I can remember being on Storm2k watching Ike in the middle of the Atlantic, saying no way he goes over the Hebert Box, under Florida, and into the GOM... I would have bet everything on it! Irma has the same look...

Which storm are you referring to? I was probably sitting on this board saying the same thing.

[Blown Away]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
840 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

.MARINE...No real change since the last discussion. Seas will be
up to 4 feet tonight and Friday. Seas may increase slightly on
Saturday and Sunday but the real increase in seas is expected on
Tuesday or so when seas will become hazardous depending on the
track and intensity of Hurricane Irma.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017/

SYNOPSIS...A fair weather pattern is expected to prevail through
Friday with locally induced showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. The next tropical wave is expected to move across the
eastern Caribbean on Saturday, increasing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Hurricane Irma is moving toward the west-
northwest near 12 mph. This motion is expected to continue today,
followed by a westward turn on Saturday, and a west-southwestward
motion by Sunday. Interests in the northeast Caribbean should
monitor the progress of this system.

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday

A mid to upper level ridge will hold across the forecast area
through early next week. Ridge aloft is then expected to erode
as a trough aloft builds across the central Atlantic. At lower
levels, a tropical wave is expected to move across the forecast
area on Saturday.

Therefore, mainly fair weather conditions with locally induced
afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to prevail on
Friday. As the tropical wave moves closer to the eastern Caribbean,
the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Friday
night through Saturday. Under a weakening ridge aloft and a
tropical wave moving across the eastern caribbean, moisture is
expected to return to normal values the upcoming weekend into
early next week. This will assure locally induced showers and
thunderstorms each day across central and western Puerto Rico,
as well as passing showers at times across eastern Puerto Rico
and the USVI.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday

The National Hurricane Center and The National Weather Service San
Juan are monitoring Hurricane Irma. The uncertainty is high at
this time, however, model guidance are indicating that Irma as a
major hurricane will move closer to the region by midweek. For
additional information about Irma: TCPAT1 and TCDAT1; Spanish
versions: TCPSP1 and TCDSP1. Interests in the northeast Caribbean
should monitor the progress of this system.

NWS PR not to excited yet...

[ScottNAtlanta]

The eye doesn't have the same warmth it had earlier, but the CDO has markedly cooled recently. I'm thinking 95 or 100 kt for 00Z with either a 5.0 or 5.5/5.5 (depending on how TAFB handles the black shade). Irma remains a rather small system.

Reminds me of Iris of 2001. It is just different compared to Andrew and charley which were also small cyclones but this when discussing the core is even smaller.

A few EWRCs will end up increasing the size by quite a bit. It's a classic occurrence with Cape Verde hurricanes.

I'm wondering if after one of those EWRC's if it will have one of those big annular looking eyes (Like Isabel)

[eastcoastFL]

The Euro is pretty much down the middle of the cluster through Florida/Cuba.

I saw that too. Last year with Mathew the stores got so crazy. Do you think I'm over doing it if I go out tomorrow and start getting water and batteries at BJ'S just in case? I hate going hurricane shopping when the masses start to figure it out. Ok so I guess my question is if it's too early?

You can never be prepared to early...you can definitely be too late though, so I'd say if you have the time and resources go for it!

Ya I always feel like I try to wait and make sure the storm is coming before I hit the stores and then I'm in the middle of the Hysteria. So I think when I drop the kids off at school tomorrow I'm going to go do the shopping then and skip the Hysteria this time. If I don't need it now I'm sure I'll need it in the future being a citizen of South Florida.

[Nimbus]

Well they have the forecast points on the satellite loop now so we can watch to see if Irma goes north of the models latitude max in the short term before the sweeping WSW to the inflection point. Complex forecast obviously since there are so many tracks being assigned similar verification potential.

Could be something else going on with the hurricane preparedness beyond pure statistics.

[Blown Away]

I can remember being on Storm2k watching Ike in the middle of the Atlantic, saying no way he goes over the Hebert Box, under Florida, and into the GOM... I would have bet everything on it! Irma has the same look...

Which storm are you referring to? I was probably sitting on this board saying the same thing.

Ike...

[johngaltfla]

I am so sad to see this storm intensify like this. I'm happy that I was able to visit my friends and favorite hangouts in the BVI and USVI this summer, but man, this nasty storm looks like it really has the potential to change the landscape of the islands.

My prayers are out for everyone in Irma's path.