ATL: IRMA - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening Steve,

I could not agree more. What a great post I could not agree more, I know we all including the long time poster all have a feeling or have studied the models. But science and past tracks of storm in certain areas are all just an approcsimate idea of where we feel a storm would go. So aw Steve said no harm intended but please reframe from posting something because it's just a guess or how you feel.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening Steve,

I could not agree more. What a great post I could not agree more, I know we all including the long time poster all have a feeling or have studied the models. But science and past tracks of storm in certain areas are all just an approcsimate idea of where we feel a storm would go. So aw Steve said no harm intended but please reframe from posting something because it's just a guess or how you feel.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Mod's some how I have a duplicate post, please do what ever you need to to correct it

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Michael Palmer‏ @MPalmerTWC
More
Bottom line: Hurricane #Irma likely a long-term threat to US as everyone from the Gulf Coast to New England needs to monitor progress.

[TJRE]

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/image ... 40_us.html

IMHO the best site to view the long range (10day) scenarios...hands down!!!

scroll thru it, if you are a newbie at Storm2k
Money inside of 5 days

[beoumont]

A small bit of research...that may come into play the next round or two!

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

I always thought tracking from Jersey, would keep me neutral----- till Sandy

I attended almost every daily NHC after lunch map discussion for 40 years (1965 - 2004) with the specialists taking turns leading the daily discussion of activity in the tropics and interactive prognostications on what would happen next with the entire on shift personnel of both the NHC and NWS Miami office. I have always considered Paul Hebert to be the most knowledged and skilled hurricane forecaster of all time. Not many people have a box named after them. Of course, he knew that there are no absolutes when it comes to hurricane tendencies.

[tgenius]

Has there ever been a storm that went through Hebert box that DID NOT hit Florida?

[Raebie]

I've never managed to understand the conversion. The entire post might as well have been written in Latin.

It's this easy: Multiply times 1.8 and add 32.

<pulling out calculator>

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I work at FIU and there was a time before 9/11 I was able to go through the NHC like I worked there. I miss that privalge I got to know a lot of people there. Even though I don't have the access I did, they are the best to get reliable information from.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great question,

And the answer from one poster is not the most comforting answer you want to see.

[Raebie]

Has there ever been a storm that went through Hebert box that DID NOT hit Florida?

Andrew

Um, what?

[Bocadude85]

Has there ever been a storm that went through Hebert box that DID NOT hit Florida?

Yes many many storms, click the link posted above and you will see that just because a storm moves through the Hebert box does not mean a USA landfall will occur.

[1900hurricane]

Has there ever been a storm that went through Hebert box that DID NOT hit Florida?

Plenty, but that's probably a discussion for the main thread. It has nothing to do with models.

[AutoPenalti]

Has there ever been a storm that went through Hebert box that DID NOT hit Florida?

Andrew

Um, what?

I read that wrong, I read it as DID NOT hit the Hebert Box, it's been a long day and my brain isn't exactly firing on all cylinders.

[Alyono]

Has there ever been a storm that went through Hebert box that DID NOT hit Florida?

most that go through the box MISS Florida

[TJRE]

I attended almost every daily NHC after lunch discussion for 40 years (1965 - 2004) with the specialists taking turns leading the daily discussion of activity in the tropics and interactive prognostications on what would happen next with the entire on shift personnel of both the NHC and NWS Miami office. I have always considered Paul Hebert to be the most knowledged and skilled hurricane forecaster of all time. Not many people have a box named after them. Of course, he knew that there are no absolutes when it comes to hurricane tendencies.

Powerful stuff indeed.... I will look forward to your posts in the days ahead
thank you for that!!!

T

[tgenius]

00z GFS should start rolling out in about 30 minutes. I'm curious if GFS continues the southern and western adjustments we've been seeing the last few model runs.

[pcolaman]

Has there ever been a storm that went through Hebert box that DID NOT hit Florida?

most that go through the box MISS Florida

The article read that 9 out of 10 from the 1900 dis hit south fla

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The GFS run should be interesting I am purely guessing here but thinking it will come back south and west just a bit.

[Bocadude85]

The GFS run should be interesting I am purely guessing here but thinking it will come back south and west just a bit.

I'm thinking the 0z ends up even farther north, through 12 hours the GFS is already farther north then the 18z