ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#981 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:09 pm

I was here then, not to mention Andrew was strong but size was small and went through pretty quick.
0 likes   

Scorpion

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#982 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:12 pm

I've seen this as an analog to the 1928 and 1947 hurricanes from the beginning. South Florida is overdue for a big hit.
1 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#983 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:15 pm

Another reason not for Irma to come here - I don't want her cancelling the Dolphins season opener against the Bucs

Don't mess with my football, darned hurricane :grr:
8 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#984 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:16 pm

Scorpion wrote:I've seen this as an analog to the 1928 and 1947 hurricanes from the beginning. South Florida is overdue for a big hit.


I agree, nature has a way of balancing itself out and S.Fla has been overdue for a major for awhile now. I'd say there is a 50/50 shot Irma will break the drought.
1 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#985 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:21 pm

Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#986 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:23 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?

10 mile shift north
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#987 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:23 pm

it sure would be wonderful if they both turned it out to sea this cycle. Doubt it happens for sure..but a gal can wish.
2 likes   

rickybobby
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 174
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 11:11 am
Location: Central Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#988 Postby rickybobby » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:23 pm

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2081
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#989 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:24 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?

10 mile shift north


I'll go with a 70 mile shift Sw
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2991
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#990 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:28 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?


I think the Euro will be a little southwest in the midterm and a little northeast in the long range.
2 likes   

TJRE
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Joined: Sun Jun 02, 2013 9:04 am
Location: New Jersey

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#991 Postby TJRE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:30 pm

0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#992 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:32 pm

Finally ! the SSD site switch the floater :) sheesh .. only 2 days late. :P

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

should be looking at a near at cat 4 tomorrow morning by the way.. if not a cat 4.. 11M.. ISH
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:37 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#993 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:32 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?

10 mile shift north


Well I hope your WESH met is right. Florida has been extremely lucky since 2005 with our streak of avoiding major hurricanes. However, at some point our luck is going to run out. Look at Harvey of what he has done in South Texas and SW Louisiana. I just hope we keep our luck going just a little while longer. We can only hope for the best!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#994 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:33 pm

I'm worried for the Carolinas. If gfs moves a little towards euro, and euro moves a little towards gfs, I've always thought a spot in between both is a fair guess. (Sorry Carolina folks)
3 likes   

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#995 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:50 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.


I think we will have to wait and see if she takes this SW bend as forecasted and if so how far sw will she go. The ridge will be a big factor for us in SFL. Right now if I had to guess I'd say anywhere from north Carolina to homestead.

I feel like if she takes less of a SW dip Central Florida north from like Martin county to the Carolina would be more likely. If she heads further south on that bend it could be devastating for Cuba and the keys and potentially the GOM if she does curve back in time.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#996 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:56 pm

sunnyday wrote:If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:


If Irma is looking like she will be heading to Florida by Monday or Tuesday I'm going to be evacuating maybe to Georgia.

Last year with Matthew I regretted not leaving just before the storm was supposed to hit and then we got lucky and it wobbled. But just prior to that wobbled my local forecast was for 145mph winds and I was wishing I left.

I have small kids so if there's anything over a cat 2 again I'm outta here with as much time to spare as I can.

I'm in Palm City by the way which is just North of Palm Beach county on the east coast.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#997 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:02 pm

Irma is definately on an intensifying phase right now. circular CDO and intense convection in the eyewall ... it also the last hour appears to have turned more westerly again. It is the best it has looked so far.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#998 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:02 pm

rickybobby wrote:Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.


Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

rickybobby
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 174
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2015 11:11 am
Location: Central Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#999 Postby rickybobby » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:06 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
rickybobby wrote:Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.


Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right


He posted where Irma is at and looked at past storms and said none of them have come close to Florida.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1000 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:15 pm

the twc show storm that area were IRMA going be by sunday dont move out to toward NORTH WEST their move toward bahamas butting fl in hot seat so this weekend their going a lot models watching see system move more wnw or nw if their weakness
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests