ATL: IRMA - Models

[Hurricaneman]

I would go with a gradual west to WNW climb but an abrupt sudden NW turn can't see it.

I agree. Nothing against the GFS but I just cannot see this storm immediately turning NW into a ridge that quickly.

Not nw in any way but north of due west to me

[RL3AO]

GFS seems to be nudging south in the day 3 to 5 range each run. It's really small (maybe 20 to 30 miles a run), but I'm wondering if it will eventually get south enough in the short term that it ends significantly further west. Something like a bifurcation point.

[SouthFLTropics]

Definitely more ridge and definitely further South. I hate to say this but it appears that in the midterm the GFS is aligning more with the Euro. No one in the islands wants to see that.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Heading NW/WNW

[Bocadude85]

GFS seems to be nudging south in the day 3 to 5 range each run. It's really small (maybe 20 to 30 miles a run), but I'm wondering if it will eventually get south enough in the short term that it ends significantly further west. Something like a bifurcation point.

I was just thinking this, every new run the GFS ends up a bit farther south. Seems to be slowly coming into line with the Euro.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to be Wnw at 120hrs and this will probably end up north of the islands but have Ts conditions

[sma10]

GFS seems to be nudging south in the day 3 to 5 range each run. It's really small (maybe 20 to 30 miles a run), but I'm wondering if it will eventually get south enough in the short term that it ends significantly further west. Something like a bifurcation point.

And more than that there seems to be a gentler, flatter look to the wnw motion this time. May end up further west than we think this run.

[pcolaman]

GFS seems to be nudging south in the day 3 to 5 range each run. It's really small (maybe 20 to 30 miles a run), but I'm wondering if it will eventually get south enough in the short term that it ends significantly further west. Something like a bifurcation point.

Was thinking the same thing. As time goes,looks to be coming into agreement with the euro to some degree. Imho

[northjaxpro]

I would go with a gradual west to WNW climb but an abrupt sudden NW turn can't see it.

I agree. Nothing against the GFS but I just cannot see this storm immediately turning NW into a ridge that quickly.

Especially a ridge that strong as well.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS seems to be nudging south in the day 3 to 5 range each run. It's really small (maybe 20 to 30 miles a run), but I'm wondering if it will eventually get south enough in the short term that it ends significantly further west. Something like a bifurcation point.

I have noticed this as well... Each run makes a slight adjustment. At some point it could tip the scales down the road.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ridging a bit stronger. But this adds up every run...

[RL3AO]

GFS seems to be nudging south in the day 3 to 5 range each run. It's really small (maybe 20 to 30 miles a run), but I'm wondering if it will eventually get south enough in the short term that it ends significantly further west. Something like a bifurcation point.

And more than that there seems to be a gentler, flatter look to the wnw motion this time. May end up further west than we think this run.

Just wondering if one of these 20 mile shifts south at day 4 will turn into a 500 mile shift at day 10.

[txwatcher91]

GFS seems to be nudging south in the day 3 to 5 range each run. It's really small (maybe 20 to 30 miles a run), but I'm wondering if it will eventually get south enough in the short term that it ends significantly further west. Something like a bifurcation point.

I was just thinking this, every new run the GFS ends up a bit farther south. Seems to be slowly coming into line with the Euro.

The GFS is ticking south and Euro is starting to tick north. It seems to be fairly common for them to do that on storms this year with reality being much closer to the Euro solution. The GFS can’t even get the 24 hour tracks of Irma correct

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS seems to be nudging south in the day 3 to 5 range each run. It's really small (maybe 20 to 30 miles a run), but I'm wondering if it will eventually get south enough in the short term that it ends significantly further west. Something like a bifurcation point.

And more than that there seems to be a gentler, flatter look to the wnw motion this time. May end up further west than we think this run.

Just wondering if one of these 20 mile shifts south at day 4 will turn into a 500 mile shift at day 10.

I was thinking the same thing. If these graceful shifts continue run to run then it will turn into a HUGE change.

[AxaltaRacing24]

About 2 degrees south.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Makes a NW jump into the ridge........ This is what I'm worried about

[SouthFLTropics]

138 hours...the fork in the road so to speak. Does Irma head NW or more WNW? And does the East Coast trough cutoff?

[sma10]

Not sure how it pans out in the long haul, but i have the 144hr about 100miles sw of previous run. Can anyone with better skills than i confirm this?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

On the Euro's last run it ended up near Key west, I think that was a bit to far south and west. Not saying it can't make the eastern part of the gulf. But not coming up from the south. My point being is look for the Euro to come a bit north and the GFS to come a bit more south, Look out S. FLA and then maybe the western part of FLA and the eastern gulf.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Not sure how it pans out in the long haul, but i have the 144hr about 100miles sw of previous run. Can anyone with better skills than i confirm this?

Around there. Stronger ridging accompanied by a weaker trough.