ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1841 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:26 pm

I'm heading out for the night. I'm guessing a New Jersey/Long Island landfall on this one.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1842 Postby TJRE » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:26 pm

At 924mb at this point of the run,
i think she will make her own rules.....just sayin
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_31.png
Last edited by TJRE on Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1843 Postby blp » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:26 pm

The ridge is displaying that trough. It looks like it backs SW on this run very similar to Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1844 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:27 pm

RL3AO wrote:I'm heading out for the night. I'm guessing a New Jersey/Long Island landfall on this one.

Why do you hate me? :eek: :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1845 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:28 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I'm heading out for the night. I'm guessing a New Jersey/Long Island landfall on this one.

Why do you hate me? :eek: :lol:


Agreed :lol:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1846 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:29 pm

About time BLP where have you been your missing all the action Lol.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1847 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:29 pm

For those who care about such things, the CMC is much further SW ... sitting over Andros Island at 210hr
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1848 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:30 pm

CMC trend :double:
Image
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1849 Postby joey » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:31 pm

sma10 wrote:For those who care about such things, the CMC is much further SW ... sitting in the central bahamas at 186 hr


same as the euro heading u know where :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1850 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:31 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:CMC trend :double:
Image

That's the GFS
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1851 Postby blp » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:31 pm

Major shift west in CMC approaching SFLA landfall.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1852 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:32 pm

CMC is about to wreck Monroe and Dade Counties at hour 210...in lockstep with the 12z Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1853 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:32 pm

From my untrained eye, is that HP pushing down and pinching off the weakness to the west?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1854 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:33 pm

Also remember when tropical cyclones get this powerful as being displayed in the models with Irma, often these powerful cyclones can "pump the ridge" and the cyclone will create its own environment. I think we're seeing that here in both the Euro and now the GFS run tonight early. Irma will get so powerful and it will be getting larger with The eyewall replacements that we're anticipating as it traverses westbound . A perfect example of pumping the ridge we may be seeing here in here and in the days to come.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1855 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:35 pm

Luis should be happy with this Euro run.

1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1856 Postby blp » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:35 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:From my untrained eye, is that HP pushing down and pinching off the weakness to the west?


Hi Dave, it does looks like it it will block it or weaken it. This looks like a Carolina run IMO.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1857 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:36 pm

Landfall
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1858 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:36 pm

Nimbus wrote:Luis should be happy with this Euro run.

1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82


Don't you mean UKMET?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1859 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:37 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Landfall
Image


Homestead...25 years later!!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#1860 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:37 pm

I don't know Brian,

Lets just say I don't feel real confident about the progressive plot of the models. Or should I say I don't like where they are heading.
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