ATL: IRMA - Models

[CourierPR]

At 192 doesn't it appear that the trough is retrograding? I don't think this goes OTS.

Yeah its not retrograding west its just lifting as is the high so wouldn't steering just be gone??

A major might be driven by the mean flow in this case right?

I always think about how strong storms can pump the ridge.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Langinbang187]

That's a real decent shift N with Euro.

[Blown Away]

Huge shift NE from 00z Euro at 216...

[Alyono]

huge trough this time off of the east coast instead of a huge ridge

[AxaltaRacing24]

huge trough this time off of the east coast instead of a huge ridge

I'm glad this run showed this. It lets us see the two paths this could take depending on if the trough gets cut off or not.

[AutoPenalti]

This is one run but maybe the GFS was right all along...

Maybe it's a freak run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is one run but maybe the GFS was right all along...

Maybe it's a freak run.

Who knows anymore? lol Back to square one tomorrow.

[shaneomac]

This is one run but maybe the GFS was right all along...

Maybe it's a freak run.

Who knows anymore? lol Back to square one tomorrow.

Looks kinda consensus with the other models , mind you the ggem had the gom track tonight which is a red flag there lol

[AxaltaRacing24]

Either gets pushed into land or follows the NARROW ally out to sea.

[Bocadude85]

This is one run but maybe the GFS was right all along...

Maybe it's a freak run.

I think it's more of the two models coming together. Let's see if the 12Z run shows this or if it goes back to cutting the trough off. I remember the Euro had a fluke run or two with Harvey before going back to its original idea.

[Langinbang187]

Euro keeps it moving slow. Could still be a threat to the Mid Atlantic or The Canadian Maritimes if that run verified.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Full Euro run

[SunnyThoughts]

Hopefully this is a trend, and she will push out to sea.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hopefully this is a trend, and she will push out to sea.

Islands and Bahamas would still get a piece of this if this run was reality. But yes a trend farther to the north would be nice.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC was showing no trof over the se 12hrs ago refer to other early posts. GFS-CMC have been onto the trof anom from the getgo.. Wont be surprised to see the next ec run clear the islands if it picks up the microwave trof as per tvcn.

[wxmann_91]

A couple of observations:

1) Models do have a tendency to erroneously cut off lows at the longer ranges (remember Matthew?). The Euro corrects this in tonight's run, and we see the result.

2) The ensembles in the longer ranges do hint at above-average heights building at the higher latitudes -- somewhere between Quebec and Newfoundland -- after the East Coast trof lifts out. If true, this has the *possibility* to prevent OTS recurvature of Irma in the very long ranges (assuming she's in the position between the US and Bermuda). Euro != auto-recurve. It also means that a slower Irma has a higher chance of impacting the U.S. That said, this is *very* preliminary and all subject to change. Nothing has changed in today's runs.

[T'Bonz]

240 Euro was almost the same position as the 204 GFS. Just a bit west, but at the same latitude.

Interesting.

[AJC3]

This far ahead of any potential impacts for the US (day 9+), how the individual operation global model runs trend toward each other is far, far less important the the broad overall trend over the course of a few days. This far out, folks who don't already do so really need to be looking a lot more at the model ensemble means, the various consenses, and their trends, rather than focusing on each 6-and 12-hourly model runs.

And to reiterate, the yammering about explicit operational model solutions out past a week "caving" to one another is well and truly pointless. And it goes without saying, as the mods and admins have repeatedly stressed, when and if thread deteriorate into "model war" mode, PMs will be sent and warnings issues as needed.

Carry on...

[HurricaneEric]

In before the next GFS run shows Irma in the Carribean

In all seriousness, if it wasn't evident already before that Euro run, there's a lot of moving parts here and really past day 5 is a crapshoot. By Wednesday or Thursday we should have better consensus on whether the Eastern CONUS will be impacted or not. Right now (take this forecast with a grain of salt), considering these runs and trends, I'd put the chances as "possible" from the north coast of Cuba to Central FL, "probable" anywhere between Central FL to NC, again "possible" for anywhere above NC, and "possible" of OTS still.