ATL: IRMA - Models

[blp]

Well I am not taking my eye off of it. We are still talking about long range and with how bad the models have been this year in the mid to long range it is hard to be confident like we were in years past. Plus the trough/ridge pattern is very complicated which is reflected in how wildly the setup has changed on both the GFS and the now the Euro on each run.

One thing I have seen is the Euro tends to stick with a pattern for several runs unlike the GFS which can swing wildly so the 3pm Euro will be a key run to see if this is now something more permanent.

[chris_fit]

It's pretty rare for a storm at Irma's location to impact Continental US - That is a fact.

I believe we will see some impact on the islands, but a threat to the SE US is decreasing IMO per all the [long range] guidance. That being said, it is long range guidance, which can and does change 100% of the time.

[windnrain]

Euro Ensemble does not paint nearly as comforting a picture as Euro Op

[txwatcher91]

This storm is 9-10 days out still from any potential US impacts. The fact the Euro shifted a bit north again isn't surprising at all; and being that we are so far out you'll see various solutions presented the next few days before models begin to lock on to a consistent one. Something to note with the Euro; it is consistently much further south days 3-5 than other models which needs to be watched closely to see how well that verifies. With the troughs we've had this summer the two most probably outcomes IMO are a Floyd type track or a close recurve. It's still too early to know for sure and it wouldn't take much more ridging or less of a trough to cause issues for FL as well.

Also, almost all of the Euro ensembles take this through the Herbert Box. If that indeed does occur, the chances of a US impact shoot up to about 80% based on climo for storms passing through it.

[BucMan2]

*** Good morning to all- Please remember that as quickly as some models changed in 24 hours they can change right back in 24 hours. My point
is that no scenario is set in stone 9-10 days away no less 3 days away. All it takes is one trough that is not as strong or as weak as predicted .
Stronger high then predicted building back or pulling away- so stay tuned and see if we have a Floyd , Donna , Hugo, Sandy scenario-Have a safe
holiday weekend-

Craig

[NDG]

Last two Euro runs is just an example of its inconsistencies in its 7/8-10 day range which I have always said it suffers from most times.
12z run will validate if 0z run is the most likely solution.
Hopefully it is a legit trend of out to sea and we on the east coast can enjoy the Labor Day weekend.

[gatorcane]

I find it somewhat interesting the long-range CMC OP shifted even more west and now through Bahamas/Southern Florida/Straits in the long-range. There are a number of CMC ensembles as shown below taking the more west route. The CMC did seem to have a west bias with Harvey when it was in the WGOM though.

[hohnywx]

I find it somewhat interesting the long-range CMC OP shifted even more west and now through Bahamas/Southern Florida/Straits in the long-range. There are a number of CMC ensembles as shown below taking the more west route. The CMC did seem to have a west bias with Harvey when it was in the WGOM though.

These are the GFS ensembles.

[plasticup]

I am cautiously optimistic that they are at least seeing a northern turn at some point, hopefully far and away from affecting anyone.

Except for Bermuda, for which that scenario risks a direct hit. People always forget about Bermuda

[hohnywx]

I just read through the last few pages...after these posts, I figured every model went east of Bermuda last night. I checked the models for myself and this is what I see:

GFS - Landfall NC/VA
UKMET - Ends N of BVI
GEM - Landfall FL
Euro - Ends NE of Bahamas

What exactly spells "Out to sea!1!1!!!" from those models? We do not know for certainty where the Euro or UKMET end up because those model runs finish before landfall (if there was to be one) would occur. Meanwhile, the two model runs which do finish end up making landfall.

[gatorcane]

Euro Ensemble does not paint nearly as comforting a picture as Euro Op

http://i.imgur.com/bmpVoRg.png

The 00Z Euro OP just happened to take one of the few ensembles that recurved just east of Bahamas. Most of them keep heading WNW or W through Bahamas/Florida/SE US coast. We could easily see the 12Z ECMWF shift back to the west on a more WNW track again.

[SFLcane]

Here is a view of the ECMWF ensemble.. Still quite the spread.

[Stormcenter]

Lots and lots of changes coming down the line so no need to jump on any particular model run. Everything is still in play. IMO

[weathaguyry]

No model run was ever showing anything like Hugo, something like Isabel may be possible, but it seems most likely that IF this affects the EC, it would probably be something like Gloria, but that's a big if. These may have been a crappy run of the models, or it could be the start of a trend, but even if this is a trend Irma is still fairly close to land, and given how large she will likely be, she'll have far reaching impacts, so it wouldn't take a huge shift West from what the 6z guidance shows to have an impact for the OBX or the NE. This is my unprofessional opinion on all of this

[txwatcher91]

Here is a view of the ECMWF ensemble.. Still quite the spread.

The key in this graphic is probably 40 of the members take this through the Herbert Box. Climo says that once a storm enters that region the chances for a US landfall skyrocket, and with this only about 5 days out from Irma entering that region, the high probability odds from the Euro ensembles of Irma passing through it is something to watch closely as the EPS skill inside 5 days is quite good from my experience. Much better than the GFS and CMC and their ensembles.

[forecasterjack]

Any time a strong storm like this passes well inside Bermuda, you're only one misplaced vortmax away from disaster. This isn't out to sea until it's accelerating quickly NE near/N of Bermuda. Until then, our vortmaxes are currently off Baja Mexico, Kamchatka, and Sweden. They'll all end up in E NoAm in a week or so. Tell me the models are going to get that exactly right at this range.

[USTropics]

After looking at each of the 51 ECMWF ensemble members with the 00z suite, here is the breakdown (this is only for the long range CONUS):

21 recurves:
https://preview.ibb.co/kt4bYa/Webp_net_gifmaker_6.gif

15 Florida:


9 Carolinas:


4 Gulf of Mexico:


1 Northeast:

[p1nheadlarry]

I keep saying this, but a Hugo, Fran type scenario is unforlding. The signatures and atomosphere was the same, go back and look. We are about 60% Carolinas throught the interior of the NE w lots of rain wind

Where do you live?

[hohnywx]

After looking at each of the 51 ECMWF ensemble members with the 00z suite, here is the breakdown (this is only for the long range CONUS):

21 recurves:
https://preview.ibb.co/kt4bYa/Webp_net_gifmaker_6.gif

15 Florida:
[i mg]https://gifyu.com/images/Webp.net-gifmaker5fc746.gif[/img]

9 Carolinas:
[i mg]https://gifyu.com/images/Webp.net-gifmaker247eab.gif[/img]

4 Gulf of Mexico:
[i mg]https://gifyu.com/images/Webp.net-gifmaker370c87.gif[/img]

1 Northeast:
[i mg]https://gifyu.com/images/us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090100_282_35_149_m7.png[/img]

Wow...thanks so much for putting this together. So, more than half are indicating some type of landfall. There must be some real eastern outliers in the 21 recurves to have the mean be as far east as it is.

[northjaxpro]

USTropics, thanks for posting the EURO long range model guidance projections.

That was very interesting to lay out for all to see!!