ATL: IRMA - Models

[hohnywx]

Speaking of Florida...As the rule goes you'd rather be in the bullseye in the long range. With that in mind I'm not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling considering that I don't think any of the major global models have made landfall on the Peninsula in the long range. How often does that happen??? Normally the GFS at least has it out for us.

The 00Z GEM made landfall on the EC of Florida.

[tolakram]

PLEASE STOP WITH THE INSENSITIVE AND OVER THE TOP COMMENTS

Storm2K is not a chat room and this is the models thread. Please people, stop the dramatics and stick to the science.

[txwatcher91]

To be honest with you today's run of the CMC makes as much sense as I've seen yet. Close call for Florida and then up to the north.

How close does it get to FL before going North? Do you know if the CMC has trended east/west compared to previous runs?

CMC basically takes a Floyd track, with the storm turning north before hitting FL and heading for NC. I think through day 6 we have a good consensus developing; Irma will likely pass very close to the islands like the Euro and then head for the Bahamas. From there it depends on the timing of any weakness... that’s past day 8 and too far to speculate.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF through 48 hours is trending South and West...Faster than 06z

[BensonTCwatcher]

Actually for 240 hours out, we have pretty good agreement overall - based on key features of the trough lifting out and the ridge placement. Other than a ULL here or there, things are looking better a day closer. But it woudl not take much of a change in the pattern to put this onshore in the islands, FL or East Coast. I hope we have agreement on that trough on Tuesday at 120 hours and "in the box" so to speak. Still a long way to go.

[nativefloridian]

To be honest with you today's run of the CMC makes as much sense as I've seen yet. Close call for Florida and then up to the north.

How close does it get to FL before going North? Do you know if the CMC has trended east/west compared to previous runs?

CMC has trended west somewhat....at least since yesterday's 00z run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Full CMC

[northjaxpro]

Speaking of Florida...As the rule goes you'd rather be in the bullseye in the long range. With that in mind I'm not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling considering that I don't think any of the major global models have made landfall on the Peninsula in the long range. How often does that happen??? Normally the GFS at least has it out for us.

I have been biting my tongue about this. I just did not say anything about this. You are the first to mention this South FL Tropics. Yeah, this makes someone like me wonder and keep this in the back of my mind.

[RL3AO]

12z GFS gif - Also added to first post

[AxaltaRacing24]

Speaking of Florida...As the rule goes you'd rather be in the bullseye in the long range. With that in mind I'm not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling considering that I don't think any of the major global models have made landfall on the Peninsula in the long range. How often does that happen??? Normally the GFS at least has it out for us.

I have been biting my tongue about this. I just did not say anything about this. You are the first to mention this South FL Tropics. Yeah, this makes someone like me wonder and keep this in the back of my mind.

I have been thinking about that also. The ensembles show us coming into play but the models do not put us in the bullseye. Food for thought.

[KWT]

Well the pattern at 192hrs is becoming real interesting. the trough withdraws but what actually takes it north is it latches onto the flow of a weak upper low over the states which slingshots it northwards.

I do have questiond regarding the 12z GFS, especially given that is a BIG upper high it has over Canada throughout the slingshot north, system could just as easily get slingshotted inland as it does to the north. Pretty sure that such a set-up would be a major problem for the NE though.

As for Florida, WAY to close to call at the moment, would only need another delay, a slower Irma, etc and your right in play, especially with a CMc track!

[AutoPenalti]

So what did we learn this afternoon?


1). General agreement with Euro and GFS for the next 3-5 days.

2). Stronger ridging from both models

3). Significant west shift from a couple days ago

4). CONUS threat has increased a bit more than prior days

5). Trough troubles for now

6). We are at day-to-day with a fluid atmosphere

7). CMC has trended west as well

8). Ensembles support idea that there's a threat someone in the CONUS

[SouthFLTropics]

Faster and a hair west at hour 78

[SouthFLTropics]

Ensembles

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS/ENS is more spread, with some members further east, and others further west.

[gatorcane]

Ensembles

https://s26.postimg.org/78vorh1g9/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_39.png

Wow that is an alarming number of ensembles that send this west into the Bahamas and Florida. Big shift from the 06Z GFS where very few impacted Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

[fox13weather]

So what did we learn this afternoon?


1). General agreement with Euro and GFS for the next 3-5 days.

2). Stronger ridging from both models

3). Significant west shift from a couple days ago

4). CONUS threat has increased a bit more than prior days

5). Trough troubles for now

6). We are at day-to-day with a fluid atmosphere

7). CMC has trended west as well

8). Ensembles support idea that there's a threat someone in the CONUS

Sounds like some solid "-removed-" to me. I personally think the trough is going to be strong enough to keep Irma a fish storm. I do not say that with certainty because I know that 240 hour forecasts are what they are. 240 hour forecasts.

[DESTRUCTION5]

When was the last time the crazy uncle (CMC)was right beyond 72 hrs? Pretty sure never comes to mind.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS ensembles for comparison - quite a difference: