ATL: IRMA - Models

[BYG Jacob]

The biggest take from these models is that somebody, somewhere is going to get hit hard by this, and to keep a close eye on it.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ensembles

https://s26.postimg.org/78vorh1g9/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_39.png

Wow that is an alarming number of ensembles that send this west into the Bahamas and Florida. Big shift from the 06Z GFS where very few impacted Florida.

Agreed...We are nowhere near to being out of the woods yet. Now we curiously await the 12z of the Euro. Was last nights 00z run a fluke???

[BobHarlem]

So what did we learn this afternoon?


1). General agreement with Euro and GFS for the next 3-5 days.

2). Stronger ridging from both models

3). Significant west shift from a couple days ago

4). CONUS threat has increased a bit more than prior days

5). Trough troubles for now

6). We are at day-to-day with a fluid atmosphere

7). CMC has trended west as well

8). Ensembles support idea that there's a threat someone in the CONUS

j
Cmc trended east and so did the euro by a good bit. Out to sea more likely that it was this time yesterday in

[RL3AO]

I don't see this posted very often, but Levi has a GFS ensemble mean trend product for 500 mb heights. It shows if there has been a model trend towards higher or lower 500 mb heights in the past 48 hours. You can see by day 8, the GEFS has been trending towards higher heights over the NE US/Eastern Canada.

[AutoPenalti]

So what did we learn this afternoon?


1). General agreement with Euro and GFS for the next 3-5 days.

2). Stronger ridging from both models

3). Significant west shift from a couple days ago

4). CONUS threat has increased a bit more than prior days

5). Trough troubles for now

6). We are at day-to-day with a fluid atmosphere

7). CMC has trended west as well

8). Ensembles support idea that there's a threat someone in the CONUS

j
Cmc trended east and so did the euro by a good bit. Out to sea more likely that it was this time yesterday in

CMC was east by one run I believe. What I'm curious to know is if the Euro will be starting another east shift.

[tgenius]

It appears that on this run of the HWRF, Irma gets down to about 15.5N before going what appears to be west in the last few frames (through 90H)

[fox13weather]

So what did we learn this afternoon?


1). General agreement with Euro and GFS for the next 3-5 days.

2). Stronger ridging from both models

3). Significant west shift from a couple days ago

4). CONUS threat has increased a bit more than prior days

5). Trough troubles for now

6). We are at day-to-day with a fluid atmosphere

7). CMC has trended west as well

8). Ensembles support idea that there's a threat someone in the CONUS

j
Cmc trended east and so did the euro by a good bit. Out to sea more likely that it was this time yesterday in

4) CONUS threat has decreased...not increased...but in reality there is no change in threat because 240 hour forecast positions are pretty much useless

5) Tough troubles for now? What the heck does that mean?? Ya...if you are in a boat in the storm's path

6) We are all day to day

[GeneratorPower]

I am one of the first to hug the Euro and get on the bandwagon. I make no apologies. I love the Euro and it's usually the most correct, the earliest, the most often. Last night's 00Z was a significant change from prior runs and I'm excited to see the 12Z today. That said, I like the Euro no matter what it says, and if it stays with a more N/NE solution like the 00Z, I'm cancelling my red alert and going back to yellow alert. Two runs of the Euro in the same direction, to me, is a trustable trend.

[RL3AO]

And on a lighter note, here's the GFS ensembles and the individual 500 mb height forecasts at day 9. Looks pretty cut and dry to me.

[AutoPenalti]

And on a lighter note, here's the GFS ensembles and the individual 500 mb height forecasts at day 9. Looks pretty cut and dry to me.

How does one even decipher that?

[RL3AO]

How does one even decipher that?

That's 21 models with drastically different solutions at day 9. Goes to show exactly why those looking for small trends in the models in 12 days are out of their minds.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON ends like this, NE of the islands

[AutoPenalti]

How does one even decipher that?

That's 21 models with drastically different solutions at day 9. Goes to show exactly why those looking for small trends in the models in 12 days are out of their minds.

Interesting, never even seen that before. I guess that explains why so much windshield wiping while looking for trends. I guess we'll wait and see as we get closer to the 5 day range.

[WeatherEmperor]

HMON ends like this, NE of the islands

[]

Appears to be a SW shift from the HMON. The HWRF is running still and so far is a tiny tiny bit more west then before


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[txwatcher91]

So what did we learn this afternoon?


1). General agreement with Euro and GFS for the next 3-5 days.

2). Stronger ridging from both models

3). Significant west shift from a couple days ago

4). CONUS threat has increased a bit more than prior days

5). Trough troubles for now

6). We are at day-to-day with a fluid atmosphere

7). CMC has trended west as well

8). Ensembles support idea that there's a threat someone in the CONUS

j
Cmc trended east and so did the euro by a good bit. Out to sea more likely that it was this time yesterday in

4) CONUS threat has decreased...not increased...but in reality there is no change in threat because 240 hour forecast positions are pretty much useless

5) Tough troubles for now? What the heck does that mean?? Ya...if you are in a boat in the storm's path

6) We are all day to day

The GFS just came in a bit more southwest with a CONUS hit; the GEFS came significantly further west also with most members threatening the CONUS. CMC is a close call for FL and heading for NC. Euro remains to be seen.. but I agree with AutoPenalti that the threat for the CONUS has certain increased from several days ago, and even from the overnight runs. Euro run will be interesting.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/danleonard_wx/status/903668957684649984

[WeatherEmperor]

HWRF coming in very close to the islands


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[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/jackson_dill/status/903673140131373058

[tolakram]

12z Euro init.

[SouthFLTropics]

Definitely further SW and faster...The islands will get hit with this HWRF run