ATL: IRMA - Models

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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2241 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:09 pm

Looks like this ECM might go quite a bit to the east...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2242 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:12 pm

Slower and weaker ridging than the 00z.. unless that trough does not dig in.. this will be a shift east..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2243 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:12 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Looks like this ECM might go quite a bit to the east...


That's awesome news. I hope the recurve trend continues
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2244 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:12 pm

Euro playing the contrarian right now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2245 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:14 pm

Does anyone have the 12z UKMET?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2246 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:14 pm

RL3AO wrote:Last one on this topic. You can see how chaotic everything becomes after about 6 days over North America. A lot can and will change when it comes to any potential US threat in 10 days or so.

Image



Awesome! Geometric progression of Entropy on display! No coincidence that NHC keeps the maximum forecast period to 5 days.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2247 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:15 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2248 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:17 pm

Still does not look like its going to miss the islands..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2249 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:17 pm

96 Hour Euro to GFS Comparison

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2250 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:18 pm

12z is @35 miles ENE of 00z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2251 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:20 pm

Upper high is still different in its orientation, more W-E vs the GFS which has more of a WNW pivot to it allowing Irma to gain more latitude.

Wil be a close call on the 12z ECM, may not look much different to the 12z HWRF actually.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2252 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:20 pm

Something to keep in mind...When compared to 12z yesterday the Euro is further North and East than today. But when compared to 00z it doesn't seem that much off. Hard to tell due to the 12 hour difference but it may actually be slightly west of the 00z.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2253 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:21 pm

Trend of ECMWF model... showing position of Irma over the last few runs. Notice a distinct sinking south.

http://imgur.com/XA49HBb

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2254 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:24 pm

120 Hour Euro vs GFS

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2255 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:26 pm

Pretty remarkable agreement thru 5 days...this is where the fork in the road has been. Beyond 5 days.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2256 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:27 pm

If the Euro decides to cut the trough off it should do it starting at hour 144.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2257 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:27 pm

much deeper trough this run..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2258 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:28 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:120 Hour Euro vs GFS

Image

Image


Massive trough on the ECMWF.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2259 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:28 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2260 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:28 pm

Trough is a lot stronger this run, odd for September I think no?
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