ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

144 Euro vs. GFS...No trough cutoff

[tarheelprogrammer]

Trough is a lot stronger this run, odd for September I think no?

It is a little stronger than normal, but it most definitely can happen this time of year.

[Aric Dunn]

hours.. still quite a bit slower than the 00z. maybe miss the trough this time ?

[Blown Away]

I think 00z was only run with cut off low and it went N... Not cut off on 12z, will it go W???

[SouthFLTropics]

I think 00z was only run with cut off low and it went N... Not cut off on 12z, will it go W???

No, it was the other way around. Those with the cutoff went west. Without it closed it went North at 00z.

[KWT]

Amazing troughing for September, surely it won't come in that deep?

Anyway it has come in north so far on the 12z ECM but the ridging is still keeping the system heading WNW and depending on what the upper trough from 144hrs will obviously determine where this ends up going.

[Steve H.]

Yes, the trough is a lot stronger than usual for this time of year. Both models are struggling with the open trough vs. a UL low cutoff. When this gets resolved we'll see them be able to come up with a better solution

[SouthFLTropics]

The ridge is really strong because the trough is so deep. The ying to the yang.

[Blown Away]

I think 00z was only run with cut off low and it went N... Not cut off on 12z, will it go W???

No, it was the other way around. Those with the cutoff went west. Without it closed it went North at 00z.

Corrected, I meant 12z yesterday...

[AutoPenalti]

This has to lift out, unless it misses the connection with the trough...

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

That trough lifted out REAL fast...Big difference between Euro and GFS here.

[NDG]

I don't see going out to sea on this run compared to last night's.

[KWT]

Indeed the upper high also gets stronger in response to the more powerful upper trough.

Anyway trough lifting out at 168hrs, upper high still guiding Irma WNW, there is another weak feature left behind which could eventually form into something that will impact the track of Irma to the north but its going to be a CLOSE run thing.

A slightly slower system may not latch onto the troughing as it withdraws leaving Irma still heading WNW, then it becomes a matter of timing between what happens to the west.

[Blown Away]

ENE of 00z and still moving WNW at 168 hrs...

[northjaxpro]

Trough once again beginning to lift out on @ hr 168

[chris_fit]

Trough is lifting out, but still looks like a general weakness in the ridge. Instead of W/WNW - Irma will have to go NW/N/NE - the question is which direction and at what point.

Feeling better about FL dodging this one though.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah that trough lifted realy fast..

[Weatherboy1]

This has to lift out, unless it misses the connection with the trough...

Sure looks like the trough is lifting out by this Day 7 timeframe. That's still pretty far out, but if Irma misses that connection and ridging rebuilds to her north, I would think the risk of someone having to deal with her on the U.S. east coast goes up

[AutoPenalti]

Feeling better about SE FL but still a week or two away.