ATL: IRMA - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2301 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:52 pm

Image

Image
Last edited by SouthFLTropics on Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2302 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:looks like its going to come into central florida or scrape it then the carolinas

Looks like the CMC model from earlier.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2303 Postby cajungal » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm

Was just starting to feel better last night on the gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2304 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:53 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Steve wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Wait what just happened?!?


The next sequence of the model ran. 2 days left and it's bearing down on SF on a west heading. :flag:

What run was I seeing that had this east of Florida?? I just got completely dumbfounded!


Probably the 00Z. This is big and bad and 925mb on the low resolution European. So Cat 4 minimum possibly Cat 5 bearing down on South Florida with 24 hours to go to see if it landfalls or turns up.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2305 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:55 pm

one thing for certain.. no trough anywhere to pick it up and out.. may slow down..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2306 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

If that cut-off low forms in the Lower MS River Valley area beyond hr 192,it may bring a southerly upper level wind flow to pull Irma up along the Florida East Coast . This is a possibility.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2307 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Gah, double


Very much like the CMC...Got that Floyd feeling again!!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2308 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

Image

Stalling?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2309 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

Nevermind.. last image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2310 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:56 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:one thing for certain.. no trough anywhere to pick it up and out.. may slow down..

Potentially another major stalling in 30+ SSTs, fantastic.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2311 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

Remember my comment about it coming in east?

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2312 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

heading towards carolinas. interesting run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2313 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

Last second recurve

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2314 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2315 Postby GeneratorPower » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:57 pm

EURO: "To be CONTINUED..."
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2316 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:58 pm

Lifting up at 240 without hitting the breaks and at 920mb heading up just offshore with a giant high north of it. No way it gets out but looks devastating if you factor in what would actually happen in that pattern.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2317 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:58 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2318 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:58 pm

tolakram wrote:Last second recurve

Image


I don't think it will recurve from there Mark...No trough to sweep it out. The Carolinas will take it on the chin if it was to run further.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2319 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:59 pm

12z run

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2320 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:00 pm

That is a life changing event if it comes on shore... Ugh
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