ATL: IRMA - Models

[WeatherOrKnot]

yep recurve city. I continue to strongly believe that this thing will re-curve well east of the US. Most of the models are now saying it and climo and statistics scream it as well. Lesser Antilles Islands look to get a scare though.[/quote]

Except they don't? CMC? Euro?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Trough's gonna push it right into LI.

[RL3AO]

Trough cutting off with the cold front (thin purple contours) stalling along the coast. This might just go into New England again.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro at 192 vs 18z GFS at 186

[stormreader]

That seems like a pretty strong trough for early September isn't it?

Very strong.

It does. But the key could be that it won't be as strong as forecasted, and then much more quickly fill in or be squeezed by the Atlantic High. If that happens you usually look for a late west push in the forecasted track.

[Hurricane Andrew]

To the promets, what kind of effects would that interaction between the cutoff trough and Irma have?

[SunnyThoughts]

Phasing?

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS has major differences even between itself on the 12z vs. the 18z, especially with timing. Regardless, it looks to have the NE in its crosshairs again.

[Steve]

Might be a good time to check with what's happening in the Pacific basin. Clue us in on relative strengths of troughs and ridges. Help give an idea of westerly motion or lack thereof.

As of this morning, it was mixed signals with a storm going into China on a NW heading and one recurving east of Japan (valid 12z 9/3/17).

Looks like a shot at a shortcut storm as of 198 hours heading toward NJ/NY/CT. That or a loop.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS also points quite a bit of rain for NE from that stalled out trough...interesting.

[RL3AO]

To the promets, what kind of effects would that interaction between the cutoff trough and Irma have?

It's kinda what happened with Sandy. The trough cuts off over the eastern US and the jet stream leaves it behind. A ridge starts to build over SE Canada which can push a storm N/NW towards New England.

[stormreader]

Ridging returning north of the cutoff trough, which is interacting with Irma. Not sure how this is going to play out?

Looks to me like anywhere from Cape Fear, North Carolina to the north coast of Cuba is best bet. Some effects by trough bring it more NW after it has already approached the coast of Fl. But no further north, due to the increased ridging at that point. Still possible that trough is overstated, and storm is pushed strongly west toward S Fl or even through the straits along the N coast of Cuba.

[BYG Jacob]

What did New England do to the GFS?

[Hurricane Andrew]

To the promets, what kind of effects would that interaction between the cutoff trough and Irma have?

It's kinda what happened with Sandy. The trough cuts off over the eastern US and the jet stream leaves it behind. A ridge starts to build over SE Canada which can push a storm N/NW towards New England.

Thanks for the explanation...Sandy could have been so much worse for my area...but at D10, I'm not takng this run as anything more than a trend, and even then, a questionable one.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Did the Patriots steal the GFS's lunch? Not matter what the pattern is, it finds a way.

[Blown Away]

18z @400 mile N of 12z @198 hrs...

[Steve]

Landfall Long Island, NY on a NNW Heading. Ouch. 210 hours.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hahahaha the GFS wipes me from the face of the earth.

[stormreader]

Might be a good time to check with what's happening in the Pacific basin. Clue us in on relative strengths of troughs and ridges. Help give an idea of westerly motion or lack thereof.

As of this morning, it was mixed signals with a storm going into China on a NW heading and one recurving east of Japan (valid 12z 9/3/17).

Looks like a shot at a shortcut storm as of 198 hours heading toward NJ/NY/CT. That or a loop.

Thanks Steve. Mixed signals is pretty much what we're getting here. Don't know though about a northeast storm. Seems like odds favor the trough filling in late. Could definitely see North Carolina, but don't think the weakness will be there to pull it any further north.

[AxaltaRacing24]