ATL: IRMA - Models

[Blown Away]

The models continue not showing a system quickly getting thrown OTS and a system trapped along the E Coast CONUS... Interesting

[RL3AO]

The happy hour GFS has been a source of craziness this season. No reason it won't continue.

DRINK!

[jlauderdal]

That seems like a pretty strong trough for early September isn't it?

unusually deep but unusual things happen, we just had a 50 inch rain event and went how many years without a major hurricane hitting the usa? we keep setting monthly high record temps in miami...unusual is actually common

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro 216 vs 18z GFS 210...HELLO MANHATTEN

[Langinbang187]

GFS is almost certainly overdoing that Canadian ridge. That thing is just ridiculous.

[RL3AO]

The funny thing is if you took the first 5 days of the GFS (more north) and the last 5 days of the Euro (more progressive trough), you'd easily get a storm going out to sea.

[Raebie]

The happy hour GFS has been a source of craziness this season. No reason it won't continue.

DRINK!

Do the interns take over at 5:30?

[otowntiger]

Pretty unrealistic on strength there. No way it will hold that kind of pressure that far north.

[toad strangler]

1938 all over again

[Hurricane Andrew]

The funny thing is if you took the first 5 days of the GFS (more north) and the last 5 days of the Euro (more progressive trough), you'd easily get a storm going out to sea.

Just goes to show...there are so many players involved here...we really won't have a good picture for a while IMO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Pretty unrealistic on strength there. No way it will hold that kind of pressure that far north.

I don't see why not, especially with (promets, help?) baroclinic interaction with the trough/fromt.

[SouthFLTropics]

The funny thing is if you took the first 5 days of the GFS (more north) and the last 5 days of the Euro (more progressive trough), you'd easily get a storm going out to sea.

Wonder Twin Powers UNITE!!! Maybe we get the best of both worlds and Irma goes and plays at the Flemish Cap!!!

[weathaguyry]

I apologize if I ever made the GFS mad, but these last few days it's trying to kill me! This run makes landfall in my town!

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS brings Irene-like flooding back to NY...on behalf of me and every other FR in the state...NO THANKS!

[stormreader]

12z Euro at 192 vs 18z GFS at 186

Huge difference. At this point from everything we have seen, the Euro continues to show a more southerly track. The track forecast and the relative strength of the ridge and trough are so disparate between the Euro and GFS. Going to have to favor the Euro solution right now.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why did the GFS move so fast compared to 12z?

[RL3AO]

12z GFS - Trough over US doesn't cut off and the Rossby wave train continues and develops a trough near England.



18z GFS - Trough over the US cuts off, ridging builds over SE Canada, and we get a repeat of some of the classic 1930s/40s NE hurricanes. Also no trough for England.

[Steve]

Pretty unrealistic on strength there. No way it will hold that kind of pressure that far north.

It would be extreme. And with the gradient of the high "umbrella-ing" it to the north, there would be strong winds everywhere. I think the pressure is probably too low there, but I wouldn't think 940's or so would be out of the question. Definitely a devastating blow as it never goes out to sea. It continues initially NNW and runs up on the NY State of side of the NY/VT border into Quebec as it is still on a N heading almost to the southern side of Hudson Bay but to the Southeast.

[stormreader]

And if you look at that last Euro position vis a vis the ridging to the north, its very difficult to see a trek toward the NE US. Things change. I think North Carolina is definitely still in play. But S Fl has to be considered strongly considered in this early Euro trek. Thats a specific I don't want to get into right now, though. Cape Fear North Carolina to North Coast of Cuba---leave it at that for now.

[Langinbang187]

Definitely favoring the Euro setup here. That ridge over Atlantic Canada looks comically overdone.