ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is 1/2 a degree NW through 66 hours

[1900hurricane]

That's quite the anticyclonic wave break on that 18Z GFS run. 500 mb heights in the Canadian Maritimes push up to about 600 dam with a big time ridge bridge over the cutoff trough.

[ROCK]

Landfall is is 8 1/2 days from 18z today which means the storm hits NYC Sunday morning at 1am. 8 1/2 days is a long time in the model world but inside of model "fantasy land". And I'd caution everyone that the GFS and European haven't exactly been good in the mid-range which is what we'll be in throughout the labor day weekend. Unless all tracks come into agreement, don't expect to see the real solution, unless one accidentally hits it, before next Tuesday when we get inside of 5 days.

IDK Steve the EURO was pretty good with Harv around 3-4 days. It was the first model to throw out the wacky mid TX coast hit then bounced back to MX then back up the coast. Probably the reason the NHC is weighing so heavily on it this year. By far it has out performed the GFS as we all know...I also like the UKMET model this year...Not bad squirrely has the others. JMO

[Frank P]

Honestly right now I am favoring one of the more consistent models.. the SIM.... often referred to as the Sports Illustrated Model...
S FL to Canada to England might end up getting this storm... heck why not all.. crazy days ahead... however, the Gulf is closed for business for at least the next two weeks... Nothing can go it there as I find that scenario most "Offensive"

[Spacecoast]

Is that (soon to be) Jose hitting Miami hour @360?

It is interesting how Jose seems to disappear on some model runs.

[stormreader]

Landfall is is 8 1/2 days from 18z today which means the storm hits NYC Sunday morning at 1am. 8 1/2 days is a long time in the model world but inside of model "fantasy land". And I'd caution everyone that the GFS and European haven't exactly been good in the mid-range which is what we'll be in throughout the labor day weekend. Unless all tracks come into agreement, don't expect to see the real solution, unless one accidentally hits it, before next Tuesday when we get inside of 5 days.

IDK Steve the EURO was pretty good with Harv around 3-4 days. It was the first model to throw out the wacky mid TX coast hit then bounced back to MX then back up the coast. Probably the reason the NHC is weighing so heavily on it this year. By far it has out performed the GFS as we all know...I also like the UKMET model this year...Not bad squirrely has the others. JMO

Welcome Back!

[storm4u]

Sandy was 946mb so close

Pretty unrealistic on strength there. No way it will hold that kind of pressure that far north.

[Ntxw]

Sandy was 946mb so close

http://i.imgur.com/zMp3EuU.png

Pretty unrealistic on strength there. No way it will hold that kind of pressure that far north.

Even the Euro which is usually the more reserved in terms of pressures of TCs was down to 920 east of Florida. While GFS depiction may not come to fruition, something in the guidance suggest pressures will be quite low.

[ROCK]

Honestly right now I am favoring one of the more consistent models.. the SIM.... often referred to as the Sports Illustrated Model...
S FL to Canada to England might end up getting this storm... heck why not all.. crazy days ahead... however, the Gulf is closed for business for at least the next two weeks... Nothing can go it there as I find that scenario most "Offensive"

agree I could use a break around here...

[Steve]

Landfall is is 8 1/2 days from 18z today which means the storm hits NYC Sunday morning at 1am. 8 1/2 days is a long time in the model world but inside of model "fantasy land". And I'd caution everyone that the GFS and European haven't exactly been good in the mid-range which is what we'll be in throughout the labor day weekend. Unless all tracks come into agreement, don't expect to see the real solution, unless one accidentally hits it, before next Tuesday when we get inside of 5 days.

IDK Steve the EURO was pretty good with Harv around 3-4 days. It was the first model to throw out the wacky mid TX coast hit then bounced back to MX then back up the coast. Probably the reason the NHC is weighing so heavily on it this year. By far it has out performed the GFS as we all know...I also like the UKMET model this year...Not bad squirrely has the others. JMO

3-4 days is next Wednesday and Thursday. That's what I said ("..don't expect to see the solution...before Tuesday" which is 5 days). Euro lost it for a while as did the GFS if you remember back to the 5-6 day period. It was to emerge off the Yucatan as a ripple in the isobars and then 92L was a ripple on the way up toward Tallahassee.

As for the 2 day verifications for 2017 posted about 3 pages back, I'm assuming "ECMF" is ECMWF with only 4 characters. CMC is outperforming everything but the NHC and some other model that begins with a C that I don't know what it is (possibly something related to COAMPS or something).

[AxaltaRacing24]

The one thing that I am concerned about is that no matter how powerful the windshield wiping is, we still have our 3 best models showing landfalls, which is the last thing this country needs.

[ColdMiser123]

The GEFS have a ridiculous signal into Florida at 18z.

[Blown Away]

The GEFS have a ridiculous signal into Florida at 18z.

Can you post image?

[ColdMiser123]

The GEFS have a ridiculous signal into Florida at 18z.

Can you post image?

Had to do a double take when I first ran through this on WSI.

[ColdMiser123]

18z is posted above, and should be out soon on Tidbits.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The GEFS have a ridiculous signal into Florida at 18z.

Can you post image?

Had to do a double take when I first ran through this on WSI.

That's cruel

[RL3AO]

This is 12z. 18z is posted above, and should be out soon on Tidbits.

Oops. Didn't look at that. Assumed it was out since others were talking about it.

[RL3AO]

Here's this.



 https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/903760446817259522

[AxaltaRacing24]

All 21 members show a us hit. A 100% agreement...

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON at 120 Hours...About 1/2 a degree north