ATL: IRMA - Models

[tgenius]

Still looks like the trough will cut off this run.

The only way I see FL getting whacked on this run is if that ridge pushes her way west, I know it's forecast to be very strong but that's a heck of a distance to be pushed west (or wnw) the whole way

[AxaltaRacing24]

[RL3AO]

Looks like the 18z run except for a little further west. So maybe mid-Atlantic or Northeast again.

[stormreader]

Big trough pumping up the ridge. This looks very much like the Euro from 12z

This is almost certain to get pretty far west, and pretty close to S Fl. Then what??? What is more likely?? strong trough to pick it up toward the NE US?? Don't think so. Perhaps an influence. Sensing the weakness over the Great Lakes, a NW course toward the Carolinas..could very well happen. Or, the trough is short lived and quickly filled in by the dominant ridging (still summertime) over the Atlantic... always seems far-fetched...the storm couldn't possibly track that far west (in Sept) until ... it happens! Toward S Fl or the Straits and then into the GOM. From Cape Fear North Carolina to the northern coast of Cuba is, I think, the alley or passage way for Irma.

[weathaguyry]

If this is going to be another NE/Mid-Atlantic hit, its starting to get me nervous, I know it's so far out, and so much can change, but the GFS has been really consistent with hitting this area

[Blinhart]

They had her move a lot in 24 hours, doubt forward speed would be that much unless a very strong cold front comes all the way down to Miami and pulls her up and out.

[TheStormExpert]

So why did the 18z GEFS Ensembles shift towards a Florida strike?

[AxaltaRacing24]

So why did the 18z GEFS Ensembles shift towards a Florida strike?

They're trending towards stronger ridging overall. Something to keep in mind as much as the control.

[drezee]

If this is going to be another NE/Mid-Atlantic hit, its starting to get me nervous, I know it's so far out, and so much can change, but the GFS has been really consistent with hitting this area

I agree...ugly run...maybe dc

[NJWxHurricane]

If this is going to be another NE/Mid-Atlantic hit, its starting to get me nervous, I know it's so far out, and so much can change, but the GFS has been really consistent with hitting this area

Agreed.

[meriland29]

If this is going to be another NE/Mid-Atlantic hit, its starting to get me nervous, I know it's so far out, and so much can change, but the GFS has been really consistent with hitting this area

Right, and Euro at least per 12z starting to trend that way as well is unsettling. But, like you said, tis very far out..and anything can unexpectedly happen in the tropical atlantic that would change the game.

[RL3AO]

The trough near Greenland is further west this run and it's flattening the ridge some. Maybe we'll get away with a Cape Cod scrape, but probably not.

[MWatkins]

Been luring for the last 2 weeks but good to connect again. It took me a while to dig out the new login process...

I wish I could have contributed more for Harvey - but have been in Kansas or Chicago (or driving from Kansas to home, thanks to Harvey) for most of August with family. Our minor inconvenience is nothing compared to what many are going through now.

The Atlantic looks a lot like 2010 - warm SST's, no ENSO. Models seem to suggest the atmosphere is going to be ideal for an existing system for the next week or two.

All we can do is watch, wait and prepare.

Going to be an interesting week ahead.

MW

[SunnyThoughts]

896mb. Holy geeze

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW the CMC is faster and more NW than earlier as well. Looks like it will make it further up the coast than before.

[meriland29]

Due north at 180

[weathaguyry]

186 hours...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090200/gfs_pres_wind_watl_32.png

[RL3AO]

Trough has been left behind and the main flow by Greenland. Nowhere for it to go but into New England again.

[meriland29]

896mb. Holy geeze

Yeah, no doubt she is fierce. I try really hard not to focus on futurecast intensity too far out cause, if anything is harder to predict than where a system is going to go, it'd be the intensity. Lets just hope 896 aint gonna be a reality..

[weathaguyry]

Starting to go back NNW at 192 hours...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090200/gfs_pres_wind_watl_33.png