ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I totally agree. Models are all over the place and continue to change each run. We need to deal with the current situations in place right now and how they are affecting the storm and it's path.

I'm calling BS on this. Here's the last four Euro runs verifying 7 days from now.

Here are the last ELEVEN runs of the GFS verifying 7 days from now.

That's remarkable consistency from the models for a 7 to 11 day forecast.

If you're mad because the GFS shifts it's 12 to 16 day forecast, then you should stop looking at models for about 30 more years.

Come on now. You know it is like every other system .. a flag flapping in the wind.. you picked out the euro.. right ? Even though the spread is over a 1000 miles in its memebers. Yes we can all see the back and forth trends.

I mean really.. the euro which had a cut off low vs a open trough some how still managed to be farther west then the gfs ?


The models have only agreed upon a general track for the next barely.. and i mean brealy 3 days.. not even including intensity..

We all see .. as always. A series of short term forecast is prudent.

[RL3AO]

I mean really.. the euro which had a cut off low vs a open trough some how still managed to be farther west then the gfs ?

At what time frame? The cut off low vs open trough is impacting the system in 8 or 9 days. Of course the models have huge differences.

[HurricaneRyan]

I feel like a part of me thinks this MIGHT go out to see and pull a Swish Swish, but then the other part of me thinks this will pull an Isabel and have a "Look What You Made Me Do" moment with the eastern seaboard.

[djones65]

Aric? I disagree with you completely! Rl3ao made an excellent post demonstrating the consistency of the global models in the near term and even mid range. You are wrong to describe them as a "flag flapping in the wind."
I normally agree with many of your posts but in this instance I agree with rl3ao that the models are performing well at th moment. Ten days is a very long time and obviously will see some variability. But two to five days can be relied on relatively well within 150 miles in my opinion.

[RL3AO]

If you never looked at any model run beyond day 10 with Irma, I think you'd be presently surprised at the relative consistency in track. All of the major differences were happening in the day 9 to 16 range. Now the potential US threat is getting within 10 days and the models are starting to get a lot closer together with a big signal in/near the Bahamas.

[floridasun78]

one thing the nhc tell us don't nut models after 5 days that why nhc don't do 10 days forecast models are good for 5 days after that is like bad dream

[Blinhart]

If you never looked at any model run beyond day 10 with Irma, I think you'd be presently surprised at the relative consistency in track. All of the major differences were happening in the day 9 to 16 range. Now the potential US threat is getting within 10 days and the models are starting to get a lot closer together with a big signal in/near the Bahamas.

Yeah, I think the question now will be will she be pushed West into the Gulf or NW into the Carolina's, don't you agree???

[Blinhart]

one thing the nhc tell us don't nut models after 5 days that why nhc don't do 10 days forecast models are good for 5 days after that is like bad dream

Normally that is true, but the consistency with the models for Irma have been pretty good, there hasn't been that many showing any Out to Sea or any going into the Yucatan Peninsula, so the spread isn't as big as they normally would be for a system this far out.

[floridasun78]

i remember seen models showing cat 4 coming toward news were saying wow and when ten days got close didn't show cat 4 moving toward miami want more up and want out to sea

[pcolaman]

All I really notice is the trend further west .

[floridasun78]

one thing the nhc tell us don't nut models after 5 days that why nhc don't do 10 days forecast models are good for 5 days after that is like bad dream

Normally that is true, but the consistency with the models for Irma have been pretty good, there hasn't been that many showing any Out to Sea or any going into the Yucatan Peninsula, so the spread isn't as big as they normally would be for a system this far out.

models are coming better and before but 10 days models run still have error but i see few year were nhc could go close 10 day forecast

[Blinhart]

i remember seen models showing cat 4 coming toward news were saying wow and when ten days got close didn't show cat 4 moving toward miami want more up and want out to sea

That is why most newscast don't try to do that anymore they don't want to have "The Cry Wolf Syndrome" happen. So they are very careful to not say it is coming their way until no more than 36 hours before landfall, and then there is so much things that happen in the rush evacuations. Imagine trying to evacuate all of Miami-Dade and the surrounding area in 36 hours, that is why it is a good thing to let people know of the chances of a storm coming but not say for sure it is coming there, if people want to leave they have the option to leave. Hope that makes since, lost concentration.

[floridasun78]

i remember seen models showing cat 4 coming toward news were saying wow and when ten days got close didn't show cat 4 moving toward miami want more up and want out to sea

That is why most newscast don't try to do that anymore they don't want to have "The Cry Wolf Syndrome" happen. So they are very careful to not say it is coming their way until no more than 36 hours before landfall, and then there is so much things that happen in the rush evacuations. Imagine trying to evacuate all of Miami-Dade and the surrounding area in 36 hours, that is why it is a good thing to let people know of the chances of a storm coming but not say for sure it is coming there, if people want to leave they have the option to leave. Hope that makes since, lost concentration.

i know key west it take three days because their do by section

[floridasun78]

other i have say i going go store get stuff i need because people see cone by wed and see it still moving wnw city going go nut i saw happen few time here with other hurr good night all i say enjoy long weekend check here few time day let see what tue models show

[eastcoastFL]

896

[Blinhart]

this hurr could beat Harvey lowest pressure

no doubt about that, she should definitely get below 940 unless somehow she blows up.

[got ants?]

Took me a few weeks to remember my login name/password, but here I am..

I'm in Hollywood FL. Been through too many storms. Usually I have an old cracker complacency, but this one has a bad taste in my mouth. I hate that because most times its dead on. Anyhoos, I'll be here for the ride...

[Chris90]

I'll guess 916mb.
Highest flight level winds of 156kts
Highest sfmr winds of 138 kts.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like another ewrc might be happening, could have something to do with dry air intrusion and lower ocean temps which will change the next 18 to 24 hrs after that it's off to the races

[txwatcher91]

Irma is looking pretty rough right now. I wonder if another EWRC is starting like the NHC hinted about? Anyone have any ideas? It could be the drier and more stable air it has moved into combined with the marginal SST’s as well.