ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

[meriland29]

I have a question in general about eyewall replacement cycles. When a replacement cycle finishes, does that make the storm larger in diameter?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That's just how consensus does the tropical plots Blinhart.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Slower

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I have a question in general about eyewall replacement cycles. When a replacement cycle finishes, does that make the storm larger in diameter?

Sometimes it can go either way.

[Steve]

That's just how consensus does the tropical plots Blinhart.

Any idea which models and model guidance they used for that TVCN? CMC and NAVGEM seem closer to that graph with Euro still running.

European roughly at 18N/50W at 48 hours (7pm Sunday night CDT)

[Hammy]

I have a question in general about eyewall replacement cycles. When a replacement cycle finishes, does that make the storm larger in diameter?

Not sure about the storm size but the eye is usually larger--essentially what happened with Harvey before landfall.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[AubreyStorm]

72 hrs 16.8n y 54w

[AutoPenalti]

A bit SE from yesterday's 0z

[wxmann_91]

Check the orientation of the 500mb ridge on the latest Euro compared to the 0Z run from 24 hr ago. It's clear it underestimated the ULL in front of Irma quite a bit, which is not unusual for global models to do.

EDIT: Irma, not Harvey LOL

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That's just how consensus does the tropical plots Blinhart.

Any idea which models and model guidance they used for that TVCN? CMC and NAVGEM seem closer to that graph with Euro still running.

European roughly at 18N/50W at 48 hours (7pm Sunday night CDT)

TVCN / TVCE / TVCA Variable Consensus of AVNI, CTCI, EGRI, EMXI, GHMI, and HWFI Model Track Forecasts

[Blinhart]

That looks quite a steep recurve in the track.

I just don't see it go due NW like that, maybe WNW, but I think it will be going W more than it shows before turning WNW, I think the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico really needs to keep an eye on this monster.

[Steve]

Damn. Euro is crawling tonight.

[AxaltaRacing24]

A bit more south

[Brent]

Euro so so close to a direct hit on the islands east of PR looks south

[Steve]

Euro seems to be the first run in this cycle that hits the NE Islands. Odd upper pattern with the Bermuda pushing back hard from the East.

[brghteys1216]

Through hour 120, it pretty much follows the southern path of NHC forecast.

[psyclone]

The TVCN endpoint is up to the latitude of about Palm Beach while still well east of the Bahamas. That would be a nice outcome sparing the islands.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Look out Bahamas!