ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Ok gfs you can stop trying to destroy my house please, those last few runs bring back those Sandy horrors living in NJ.
The spread is definitely getting smaller though, the odds of an OTS track are probably less than 50% right now vs. 75% two days ago.
The spread is definitely getting smaller though, the odds of an OTS track are probably less than 50% right now vs. 75% two days ago.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
It also concerns me that lots of these models don't have too much spread, and they look like they're maybe headed towards the Northeast



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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
otowntiger wrote:wow did mean to sound like I'm chastising anyone- just pointing out a difference of opinion in semantics, as I believe I said. Sorry to sound any thing less than civil. It's all good- I've been a member on here since 2004 and do much more lurking than posting. Maybe I'll go back to posting less. You have a good safe weekend too and let's hope and pray that Irma does what I think she will and turn out to sea.northjaxpro wrote:otowntiger wrote: it is concerning granted, but I don't think you can say any model is 'locked on' to anything more than 5 days out. And really if you want to say this particular model is locked on anything you can't say it's locked on anything but South Carolina, at the moment,if you want to get specific. Maybe it's just semantics, I mean you can't say a model is locked on to an area covering 3 states and a thousand miles. Maybe 'narrowed down' would be a better phrase. I'm also a little skeptical of the extreme size and to some degree the strength being forecasted currently. It's a pretty darned small system right now with a fair amount of fluctuations going on I know they can grow some in size but I've never seen one expand as these models are predicting. Just my two cents though. We shall see.
First of all I respect your opinion, even though you are chastising me on here. I'm just here the offer my thoughts as a longtime member of 7 years on Storm2K. I am here only analyzing the situation shown by the Euro for now the past couple of run cycles with Irma getting uncomfortably close along the Southeast U.S. coast. So, I will not get into a verbal spat about what I am discussing here. Are you the Storm2K police or something of that nature coming after me like this so unnecessarily I might add?
Look, I am well aware these are model runs. They will always change. I have been in this business too long to know all the things this science brings us. It is what it is a science. We are here to use the tools we have to analyze and assess the atmosphere the best we can.
I am on this site to just offer my thoughts for which I have for over seven years as a member on Storm2K.
I do not live and die for with these models. They are just a guide.. I will be mindful of using terms like "trends" or "locking on"as you are crucifying me for here for using.
But, anyway, be safe and have a wonderful holiday weekend.
No problem at all. We all are on this forum to discuss and discern from one another. Living here in Florida, I whole-heartedly agree with what you said at the end of your post. Praying that EURO solution will not make landfall to any areas in the days to come. No one needs Irma to bring complete havoc. God forbid!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Below is a break down of each of the 51 ECMWF Ensemble members for the 00z suite. Some trends I've noticed:
18 Recurves - https://image.ibb.co/kpvMYa/Webp_net_gifmaker_4.gif
8 Nova Scotia/Newfoundland - https://image.ibb.co/fuAARv/Webp_net_gifmaker_3.gif
15 NC/SC

6 FL

2 NE

- There remains two distinct camps of CONUS landfalls and recurves (essentially 50/50 split)
A significant number of recurves have propagated further west towards Florida before doing so (the recurve loop shows closest decent to CONUS)
Some eventual recurves have stalled north of the Bahamas
Numerous NC landfalls have also continued on a parallel track up the coast towards the NE (not too dissimilar from the last 2 runs of the GFS)
18 Recurves - https://image.ibb.co/kpvMYa/Webp_net_gifmaker_4.gif
8 Nova Scotia/Newfoundland - https://image.ibb.co/fuAARv/Webp_net_gifmaker_3.gif
15 NC/SC

6 FL

2 NE

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Tracking GFS Run-to-Run Consistency
Concerning to say the least.
Especially since it will take a long track straight north thru the Gulf Stream.
Secondary Coriolis forces will make wind field strength greater than the normal correlation with inverse surface pressure.


Concerning to say the least.
Especially since it will take a long track straight north thru the Gulf Stream.
Secondary Coriolis forces will make wind field strength greater than the normal correlation with inverse surface pressure.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I just checked CAPE, Lifted Index, and Helicity on the latest GFS forecast.
In a word - insane.
Not to be an alarmist, but if GFS pans out, this could be a significant widespread tornado event across a huge, high-population area.
In a word - insane.
Not to be an alarmist, but if GFS pans out, this could be a significant widespread tornado event across a huge, high-population area.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Looks like the GFS has Irma moving significantly quicker than the Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GCANE wrote:Tracking GFS Run-to-Run Consistency
Concerning to say the least.
Especially since it will take a long track straight north thru the Gulf Stream.
Secondary Coriolis forces will make wind field strength greater than the normal correlation with inverse surface pressure.
The storm might not strengthen much if not at all over the GS, but the fact that it seems to increase in linear velocity means that it can sustain much of its energy. It's concerning, but for the GFS scenario to unfold on the intensity end, Irma really would have to be an incredibly intense storm in the vicinity of the Bahamas (stronger than Floyd!) almost exactly as it currently depicts.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Looks like the GFS has Irma moving significantly quicker than the Euro.
No kidding, 06z GFS has the storm off the coast of New England by 216 hours, whereas the ECMWF is still in the Bahamas.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Latest COAMPS
Run-to-run indicates a continuous building of energy, top-of-scale.
Incredible power.


Run-to-run indicates a continuous building of energy, top-of-scale.
Incredible power.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/903954871778410496
Philippe Papin @pppapin
Another interesting note is the operational ECMWF run was nearly on top of ensemble mean through 168hr, but goes west of mean thereafter. pic.twitter.com/OIl6eUyXHw
8:16 AM - Sep 2, 2017 · New York, USA

Philippe Papin @pppapin
Another interesting note is the operational ECMWF run was nearly on top of ensemble mean through 168hr, but goes west of mean thereafter. pic.twitter.com/OIl6eUyXHw
8:16 AM - Sep 2, 2017 · New York, USA

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Looks like the GFS has Irma moving significantly quicker than the Euro.
No kidding, 06z GFS has the storm off the coast of New England by 216 hours, whereas the ECMWF is still in the Bahamas.
But here's the thing, the Euro ensembles seem to agree with the GFS so maybe the GFS is not out to lunch but a very viable option including such notable hurricanes as
Irene 2011
Floyd 1999
Edna 1954
Hurricane 4 1903
Hurricane 8 1938
Great September gale 1815
Great colonial hurricane 1635
Hurricane Gloria
Hurricane Isabel
Hurricane 1944
Hurricane Donna 1960
And probably a few I missed so the track could be like these
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Great source for model graphics and more.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Several of the 00z EPS Ensembles now recurve Irma OTS after heading close or through the Bahamas. The operational run is on the far left side of the ensembles now. So expect east shifts which should also be good news for the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. I think chances of a Florida strike a decreasing.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
There is usually some good stuff on this link too.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- CourierPR
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:Several of the 00z EPS Ensembles now recurve Irma OTS after heading close or through the Bahamas. The operational run is on the far left side of the ensembles now. So expect east shifts which should also be good news for the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. I think chances of a Florida strike a decreasing.
In light of acknowledged uncertainty by the NHC as to future track of Irma, that is a very bold statement.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:I think chances of a Florida strike are decreasing.
Maybe for the GOM, but south Florida is still a possibility.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
GCANE wrote:I just checked CAPE, Lifted Index, and Helicity on the latest GFS forecast.
In a word - insane.
Not to be an alarmist, but if GFS pans out, this could be a significant widespread tornado event across a huge, high-population area.
GFS has wiped me off the map 2/3 runs now, rofl. Luckily, I am not buying it yet.
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