ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2841 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:41 am

Ok gfs you can stop trying to destroy my house please, those last few runs bring back those Sandy horrors living in NJ.

The spread is definitely getting smaller though, the odds of an OTS track are probably less than 50% right now vs. 75% two days ago.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2842 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:49 am

It also concerns me that lots of these models don't have too much spread, and they look like they're maybe headed towards the Northeast :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2843 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 02, 2017 6:50 am

otowntiger wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
otowntiger wrote: it is concerning granted, but I don't think you can say any model is 'locked on' to anything more than 5 days out. And really if you want to say this particular model is locked on anything you can't say it's locked on anything but South Carolina, at the moment,if you want to get specific. Maybe it's just semantics, I mean you can't say a model is locked on to an area covering 3 states and a thousand miles. Maybe 'narrowed down' would be a better phrase. I'm also a little skeptical of the extreme size and to some degree the strength being forecasted currently. It's a pretty darned small system right now with a fair amount of fluctuations going on I know they can grow some in size but I've never seen one expand as these models are predicting. Just my two cents though. We shall see.


First of all I respect your opinion, even though you are chastising me on here. I'm just here the offer my thoughts as a longtime member of 7 years on Storm2K. I am here only analyzing the situation shown by the Euro for now the past couple of run cycles with Irma getting uncomfortably close along the Southeast U.S. coast. So, I will not get into a verbal spat about what I am discussing here. Are you the Storm2K police or something of that nature coming after me like this so unnecessarily I might add?

Look, I am well aware these are model runs. They will always change. I have been in this business too long to know all the things this science brings us. It is what it is a science. We are here to use the tools we have to analyze and assess the atmosphere the best we can.

I am on this site to just offer my thoughts for which I have for over seven years as a member on Storm2K.

I do not live and die for with these models. They are just a guide.. I will be mindful of using terms like "trends" or "locking on"as you are crucifying me for here for using.

But, anyway, be safe and have a wonderful holiday weekend.
wow did mean to sound like I'm chastising anyone- just pointing out a difference of opinion in semantics, as I believe I said. Sorry to sound any thing less than civil. It's all good- I've been a member on here since 2004 and do much more lurking than posting. Maybe I'll go back to posting less. You have a good safe weekend too and let's hope and pray that Irma does what I think she will and turn out to sea.


No problem at all. We all are on this forum to discuss and discern from one another. Living here in Florida, I whole-heartedly agree with what you said at the end of your post. Praying that EURO solution will not make landfall to any areas in the days to come. No one needs Irma to bring complete havoc. God forbid!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2844 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:03 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2845 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:03 am

Below is a break down of each of the 51 ECMWF Ensemble members for the 00z suite. Some trends I've noticed:

    There remains two distinct camps of CONUS landfalls and recurves (essentially 50/50 split)
    A significant number of recurves have propagated further west towards Florida before doing so (the recurve loop shows closest decent to CONUS)
    Some eventual recurves have stalled north of the Bahamas
    Numerous NC landfalls have also continued on a parallel track up the coast towards the NE (not too dissimilar from the last 2 runs of the GFS)

18 Recurves - https://image.ibb.co/kpvMYa/Webp_net_gifmaker_4.gif
8 Nova Scotia/Newfoundland - https://image.ibb.co/fuAARv/Webp_net_gifmaker_3.gif

15 NC/SC
Image

6 FL
Image

2 NE
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2846 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:07 am

Tracking GFS Run-to-Run Consistency
Concerning to say the least.
Especially since it will take a long track straight north thru the Gulf Stream.
Secondary Coriolis forces will make wind field strength greater than the normal correlation with inverse surface pressure.


Image


Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2847 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:17 am

I just checked CAPE, Lifted Index, and Helicity on the latest GFS forecast.
In a word - insane.
Not to be an alarmist, but if GFS pans out, this could be a significant widespread tornado event across a huge, high-population area.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2848 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:20 am

Looks like the GFS has Irma moving significantly quicker than the Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2849 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:20 am

GCANE wrote:Tracking GFS Run-to-Run Consistency
Concerning to say the least.
Especially since it will take a long track straight north thru the Gulf Stream.
Secondary Coriolis forces will make wind field strength greater than the normal correlation with inverse surface pressure.


Image


Image


The storm might not strengthen much if not at all over the GS, but the fact that it seems to increase in linear velocity means that it can sustain much of its energy. It's concerning, but for the GFS scenario to unfold on the intensity end, Irma really would have to be an incredibly intense storm in the vicinity of the Bahamas (stronger than Floyd!) almost exactly as it currently depicts.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2850 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:20 am

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Looks like the GFS has Irma moving significantly quicker than the Euro.


No kidding, 06z GFS has the storm off the coast of New England by 216 hours, whereas the ECMWF is still in the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2851 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:24 am

Latest COAMPS
Run-to-run indicates a continuous building of energy, top-of-scale.
Incredible power.


Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2852 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:29 am

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/903954871778410496



Philippe Papin @pppapin
Another interesting note is the operational ECMWF run was nearly on top of ensemble mean through 168hr, but goes west of mean thereafter. pic.twitter.com/OIl6eUyXHw
8:16 AM - Sep 2, 2017 · New York, USA

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2853 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:31 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Looks like the GFS has Irma moving significantly quicker than the Euro.


No kidding, 06z GFS has the storm off the coast of New England by 216 hours, whereas the ECMWF is still in the Bahamas.


But here's the thing, the Euro ensembles seem to agree with the GFS so maybe the GFS is not out to lunch but a very viable option including such notable hurricanes as

Irene 2011
Floyd 1999
Edna 1954
Hurricane 4 1903
Hurricane 8 1938
Great September gale 1815
Great colonial hurricane 1635
Hurricane Gloria
Hurricane Isabel
Hurricane 1944
Hurricane Donna 1960


And probably a few I missed so the track could be like these
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2854 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:32 am

Great source for model graphics and more.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2855 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:35 am

Several of the 00z EPS Ensembles now recurve Irma OTS after heading close or through the Bahamas. The operational run is on the far left side of the ensembles now. So expect east shifts which should also be good news for the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. I think chances of a Florida strike a decreasing.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2856 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:39 am

There is usually some good stuff on this link too.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/


Image
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2857 Postby CourierPR » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:40 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Several of the 00z EPS Ensembles now recurve Irma OTS after heading close or through the Bahamas. The operational run is on the far left side of the ensembles now. So expect east shifts which should also be good news for the mid-Atlantic and NE U.S. I think chances of a Florida strike a decreasing.


In light of acknowledged uncertainty by the NHC as to future track of Irma, that is a very bold statement.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2858 Postby Jonny » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:45 am

TheStormExpert wrote:I think chances of a Florida strike are decreasing.

Maybe for the GOM, but south Florida is still a possibility.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2859 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:47 am

The potential track looks very similar to Isabel.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2860 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 02, 2017 7:48 am

GCANE wrote:I just checked CAPE, Lifted Index, and Helicity on the latest GFS forecast.
In a word - insane.
Not to be an alarmist, but if GFS pans out, this could be a significant widespread tornado event across a huge, high-population area.

GFS has wiped me off the map 2/3 runs now, rofl. Luckily, I am not buying it yet.
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