cycloneye wrote:wxman57 wrote:I think that Luis is going to be OK there in PR. Irma is still a relatively small storm. It's likely to pass 100-150nm north of San Juan. Far enough that TS winds will pass to the north. Could pass close enough to produce 40-50 mph sustained wind there, though.
As for the East U.S. Coast, the big question is timing. Timing of the trof/front along the east coast and Irma's arrival. A faster Irma and/or slower front/trof would mean recurve. If Irma is slower and/or the trof/front is faster, then high pressure builds north of Irma late next week, blocking recurve and shoving Irma west. I'm thinking that a US landfall is more likely than not, maybe 54% east coast landfall, 44% recurve, 2% into Gulf. I don't think that the timing is right for a Florida hit, as Irma may be north of 30N before it could be blocked. That puts SC northward under the gun.
Heading out on my bike shortly to survey the Brays Bayou flooding area. This is my first day off since weekend before last. Twelve days of 12+ hr shifts. Flooding is still bad here. Only 33" at my house. Wow! Only? Street flooding was all I saw here. However, 1/4 to 1/2 mile around me north or south and houses flooded. They're saying some homes may remain flooded for weeks on the west side.
Hopefully you are right about PR but our friends in the northern Leewards could see much more right? How you see things for Guadeloupe,Antigua St Marteen,St Barts BVI and U.S Virgin Islands?
Get your insurance papers and other important papers together. Put them in a ziplock bag (waterproof - and cheap!). Make a Plan. If you have to evacuate, where will you go? How will you get there? Will you go to a family member's home further inland? A shelter? Families with members who have special needs should always think about their plan (and should find out if their city/county has a registry for them to be added to). Buy things that you can use later and that do not spoil. Bottled water. Canned goods (make sure you have a manual can opener). Think about things that do not need to be cooked - like peanut butter and crackers. If you have an infant, you want to make sure you have plenty of formula, baby food, diapers and wipes. Don't buy food that you and your family do not eat (if your family never eats tuna fish, this isn't the time to suddenly start). If you have children, get snacks and activities that keep them occupied. Walmart had little LED flashlights for $1 last year. I bought each of my grandsons one. I created a bag of treats and activities for each of them (the flashlight with a pack of batteries, coloring book with crayons, gummy snacks, new PJs, a game for each, box juice, etc). If you can afford it (and have a place to store it) a generator is a good investment - don't forget the gas! (Remember that you NEVER run it in a closed space!).