ATL: IRMA - Models

[sma10]

HWRF is faster...A full degree west of the 06z by 63 hours.

It's funny. I'm getting so "modeled out" that I have to stop and think about the repercussions of a faster moving Irma.

I presume faster motion is good, right? The quicker she moves the likelier she connects with the east coast trough?

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS 12z Ensembles

[Bocadude85]

GEFS 12z Ensembles

Much larger spread then the 6z. I don't think 6z had a cluster over Florida.

[gatorcane]

Here we go again..another cluster of ensembles going west into Bahamas then Florida, a lot more than 06Z. Take a look at the short-term. Pretty decent shift towards islands:



Previous run:

[AxaltaRacing24]

[sma10]

Hmm, a not-insignificant total of 7 members landfalling from SC to the Keys

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hmm, a not-insignificant total of 7 members landfalling from SC to the Keys

Along with some gulf members. hmmmm

[SouthFLTropics]

Trend

[PTrackerLA]

The left turn all the way to almost Wisconsin is the most concerning aspect of the latest GFS. Tells me there is no way out.

[pcolaman]

Well still see the westward progression. Not liking the westward trends one bit.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yup...definitely time to start working on that hurricane briefing.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF WSW by a degree from 06z at 84 Hours... WATCH OUT ISLANDS

[blp]

My money is shift west today just like yesterday. This is normal swings we see past 7 days. In the end the GFS will give the most ground due to its inherent trough bias We saw this with Harvey when GFS was showing North Florida for several runs which proved to be wrong.

The GFS never showed North Florida as a landfall destination for Harvey. You must be thinking of Cindy?

My bad it was showing pre Harvey over South Carolina at 276hr. It ended up in SE Texas. That was my point with the long range forecast.

Pre- Harvey 91L

[gatorcane]

HWRF WSW by a degree from 06z at 84 Hours... WATCH OUT ISLANDS

https://s26.postimg.org/8bj2lw309/hwrf_mslp_wind_11_L_29.png

I think what we are seeing with the HWRF is stronger=more west. Another shift like that and the NE Lesser Antilles will be near the core of this storm.

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the 12z UKMET text input plotted out.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/904032478276530177

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF WSW by a degree from 06z at 84 Hours... WATCH OUT ISLANDS

https://s26.postimg.org/8bj2lw309/hwrf_mslp_wind_11_L_29.png

I think what we are seeing with the HWRF is stronger=more west.

I believe you are correct...That is an impressive looking storm. Another view at 96 Hours...Islands coming into view on the left of the screen.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here is the 12z UKMET text input plotted out.

What does the high and trough set up look like?

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the 12z UKMET text input plotted out.

https://i.imgur.com/BWhSN09.jpg

What does the high and trough set up look like?

I don't know, I haven't seen the 500mb plot.

[sma10]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/904032478276530177

Very nice write-up! And a decidedly "uncranky" take.