ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Where is the shear supossedly going to come from? Looking at the models it seems like the upper anticyclone is going to stay well defined and move along with Irma, I see an upper low northwest of Irma by day 5 but doesn't seem to be close enough to cause much shear.

Not a pro or official forecast.

[Evenstar]

How about instead of discussing models on the hurricane page, how about we actually look at the current status of the hurricane, like its intensity, look, dvorak signature, and other features? The last talk about the actual hurricane is 2 pages back, and meaningless speculation is rampant.

I am baffled by what you just said. If we don't discuss the models, what's the point of being here at all? And if we aren't talking about Irma, which storm are we talking about on the Irma discussion page? This forum is doing what it is supposed to do: Speculate and discuss the possibilities, both meaningless and otherwise.

[Aric Dunn]

What would happen if the SW bend was deeper? Would that shift the guidance more west and south as well?

Yes, that is why we must wait and not speculte passed 3 days right now until the turn to the wnw starts until then we only have a general idea of what the pattern might do.. so we wait a speculate.. try to do our best with educated guesses and analyses

[Evenstar]

What would happen if the SW bend was deeper? Would that shift the guidance more west and south as well?

Yes, that is why we must wait and not speculte passed 3 days right now until the turn to the wnw starts until then we only have a general idea of what the pattern might do.. so we wait a speculate.. try to do our best with educated guesses and analyses

Educated guesses based on analysis IS speculating. I don't understand what the point is of having a discussion page if we shouldn't be discussing a system before it's three days out.

[hohnywx]

How about instead of discussing models on the hurricane page, how about we actually look at the current status of the hurricane, like its intensity, look, dvorak signature, and other features? The last talk about the actual hurricane is 2 pages back, and meaningless speculation is rampant.

I am baffled by what you just said. If we don't discuss the models, what's the point of being here at all? And if we aren't talking about Irma, which storm are we talking about on the Irma discussion page? This forum is doing what it is supposed to do: Speculate and discuss the possibilities, both meaningless and otherwise.

I think his point was to just discuss the models in the models thread and have actual storm discussion in this thread. No reason to have a model thread if the talk is going to go on in here too.

[AxaltaRacing24]

What would happen if the SW bend was deeper? Would that shift the guidance more west and south as well?

Yes, that is why we must wait and not speculte passed 3 days right now until the turn to the wnw starts until then we only have a general idea of what the pattern might do.. so we wait a speculate.. try to do our best with educated guesses and analyses

Educated guesses based on analysis IS speculating. I don't understand what the point is of having a discussion page if we shouldn't be discussing a system before it's three days out.

He's mainly talking about the people who are ruling landfall areas out and sounding all clears.

[Evenstar]

How about instead of discussing models on the hurricane page, how about we actually look at the current status of the hurricane, like its intensity, look, dvorak signature, and other features? The last talk about the actual hurricane is 2 pages back, and meaningless speculation is rampant.

I am baffled by what you just said. If we don't discuss the models, what's the point of being here at all? And if we aren't talking about Irma, which storm are we talking about on the Irma discussion page? This forum is doing what it is supposed to do: Speculate and discuss the possibilities, both meaningless and otherwise.

I think his point was to just discuss the models in the models thread and have actual storm discussion in this thread. No reason to have a model thread if the talk is going to go on in here too.

It would be bizarre if we didn't reference models in the discussion. To quote Flash Gordon, we would be "flying blind on a rocket cycle" and this forum would indeed be meaningless.

[Blinhart]

How about instead of discussing models on the hurricane page, how about we actually look at the current status of the hurricane, like its intensity, look, dvorak signature, and other features? The last talk about the actual hurricane is 2 pages back, and meaningless speculation is rampant.

I am baffled by what you just said. If we don't discuss the models, what's the point of being here at all? And if we aren't talking about Irma, which storm are we talking about on the Irma discussion page? This forum is doing what it is supposed to do: Speculate and discuss the possibilities, both meaningless and otherwise.

I think his point was to just discuss the models in the models thread and have actual storm discussion in this thread. No reason to have a model thread if the talk is going to go on in here too.

That is not how it used to be, the Model thread used to be for just posting models, with the discussion in this thread or a separate thread.

[BeRad954]

What would happen if the SW bend was deeper? Would that shift the guidance more west and south as well?

Yes, that is why we must wait and not speculte passed 3 days right now until the turn to the wnw starts until then we only have a general idea of what the pattern might do.. so we wait a speculate.. try to do our best with educated guesses and analyses

Thanks for the response Aric, just trying to keep up with all the possibilities and scenarios. I understand everything in weather is uncertain until it happens

[Aric Dunn]

What would happen if the SW bend was deeper? Would that shift the guidance more west and south as well?

Yes, that is why we must wait and not speculte passed 3 days right now until the turn to the wnw starts until then we only have a general idea of what the pattern might do.. so we wait a speculate.. try to do our best with educated guesses and analyses

Educated guesses based on analysis IS speculating. I don't understand what the point is of having a discussion page if we shouldn't be discussing a system before it's three days out.

im not sure what your getting at. Who said not to discuss anything passed 3 days? There is a difference between looking at models and "discussing" what the model is doing vs. " I think its going be a cat 5 into NC".

right now the models do not have a handle on the down stream mechanism, so the point of discussing them is brought down to speculating since the big player in this game right now is how far sw does it get before the turn.. going farther WSW to sw would slow its arrival down to the western atlantic and affect the timing of the trough interaction. same applies to it being faster by not dipping as far south and turning sooner.

so the crux is this turn...once it turns... then we will a have much better idea of timing.

[WeatherGuesser]

So you don't think Florida is out of the woods just yet?

Nope.

Any idea on when we might know?

Next week.

[Evenstar]

Yes, that is why we must wait and not speculte passed 3 days right now until the turn to the wnw starts until then we only have a general idea of what the pattern might do.. so we wait a speculate.. try to do our best with educated guesses and analyses

Educated guesses based on analysis IS speculating. I don't understand what the point is of having a discussion page if we shouldn't be discussing a system before it's three days out.

im not sure what your getting at. Who said not to discuss anything passed 3 days? There is a difference between looking at models and "discussing" what the model is doing vs. " I think its going be a cat 5 into NC".

right now the models do not have a handle on the down stream mechanism so the point of discussing them is brought down to speculating since the big player in this game right now is how far sw does it before the turn.. going farther WSW to sw would slow its arrival down to the western atlantic and affect the timing of the trough interaction. same applies to it being faster by not dipping as far south and turning sooner.

so the crux is this turn...once it turns... then we will a have much better idea of timing.

I understand why you are saying we have to wait to know what it's actually going to do, but if we are not going to discuss the possibilities from the time a storm leaves the coast of Africa to its ultimate destination, then why are we here? And frankly, it's annoying when someone other than a moderator tells people what they should and should not be discussing on the discussion page. (and I'm not referring to you, Aric)

[AdamFirst]

Has the storm begun its west-southwest trajectory or are we still waiting on that?

[Aric Dunn]

Educated guesses based on analysis IS speculating. I don't understand what the point is of having a discussion page if we shouldn't be discussing a system before it's three days out.

im not sure what your getting at. Who said not to discuss anything passed 3 days? There is a difference between looking at models and "discussing" what the model is doing vs. " I think its going be a cat 5 into NC".

right now the models do not have a handle on the down stream mechanism so the point of discussing them is brought down to speculating since the big player in this game right now is how far sw does it before the turn.. going farther WSW to sw would slow its arrival down to the western atlantic and affect the timing of the trough interaction. same applies to it being faster by not dipping as far south and turning sooner.

so the crux is this turn...once it turns... then we will a have much better idea of timing.

I understand why you are saying we have to wait to know what it's actually going to do, but if we are not going to discuss the possibilities from the time a storm leaves the coast of Africa to its ultimate destination, then why are we here? And frankly, it's annoying when someone other than a moderator tells people what they should and should not be discussing on the discussion page. (and I'm not referring to you, Aric)

At least for this particular hurricane. right now the Carribean islands are in the cross hairs. so the next 3 days are important for this and what I just mentioned. the models wont really have a handle until after it turns...

so go have as many discussions about the Carribean islands impact and the track for the next 3 days.. anything passed that is speculative and of course nothing wrong with speculating passed 3 days.. but right now the important thing is the carribean islands... so thats the difference.

[Ntxw]

Lets get back to productive discussion about the storm, and possibilities. Model posts here are fine, just add some commentary on your thoughts relating to it with some support (if necessary) for your ideas/forecast. In general, the discussions thread we are pretty liberal on with posts as long as on topic and relating to the system rather than other posters.

Continue..

[Evenstar]

im not sure what your getting at. Who said not to discuss anything passed 3 days? There is a difference between looking at models and "discussing" what the model is doing vs. " I think its going be a cat 5 into NC".

right now the models do not have a handle on the down stream mechanism so the point of discussing them is brought down to speculating since the big player in this game right now is how far sw does it before the turn.. going farther WSW to sw would slow its arrival down to the western atlantic and affect the timing of the trough interaction. same applies to it being faster by not dipping as far south and turning sooner.

so the crux is this turn...once it turns... then we will a have much better idea of timing.

I understand why you are saying we have to wait to know what it's actually going to do, but if we are not going to discuss the possibilities from the time a storm leaves the coast of Africa to its ultimate destination, then why are we here? And frankly, it's annoying when someone other than a moderator tells people what they should and should not be discussing on the discussion page. (and I'm not referring to you, Aric)

At least for this particular hurricane. right now the Carribean islands are in the cross hairs. so the next 3 days are important for this and what I just mentioned. the models wont really have a handle until after it turns...

so go have as many discussions about the Carribean islands impact and the track for the next 3 days.. anything passed that is speculative and of course nothing wrong with speculating passed 3 days.. but right now the important thing is the carribean islands... so thats the difference.

Sigh. I give up.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic...

[Ntxw]

Moving into warmer SST's now. Has sufficiently warm waters most of the way here on out.

[eastcoastFL]

Has the storm begun its west-southwest trajectory or are we still waiting on that?

Looks like it's just started it's SW bend a few hours ago.

[Aric Dunn]

Its def moving south of west but not too much right now.. should take a more WSW turn soon.

[birddogsc]

Looks like it's just started it's SW bend a few hours ago.

I hope this movement bottoms out soon as this could have serious implication for the islands.

In terms of the future track, I hope we get some clarity on a zone of impact unlike storms like Floyd which have caused large areas of the southern US coast to act and generally caused confusion.