ATL: IRMA - Models

[NJWxHurricane]

Compared to yesterday's 0z, it's ~150 miles to the west.

this is NE of 0z run from last night judging at hr 168

[M3gaMatch]

yep next frame you'd have to think towards the Carolinas.

[Dean4Storms]

Irma pumping the brakes by 168hr, not good.

[SFLcane]

Wayyyy to close to close for comfort at 168hrs...

[Aric Dunn]

manthe models are having a real hard time with that trough.. the 00z lifts the trough out .. this 12z develops a large cut off low over canada.. looks like ridging building back in at 168 hours... and it has slowed down quite a bit.. will it turn north or west.. hmm...

[TheStormExpert]

JMA shows on coast near Ft Pierce at 192hr

12z JMA @192hrs.

[Steve]

yep next frame you'd have to think towards the Carolinas.

Look at the high in the Eastern Great Lakes on the ECMWF. No way this is going to be able to get out. They have been moving all season and not sitting there. It will come into a position north of Irma a couple of days out from 168 hours based on what the ECMWF is showing.

[NJWxHurricane]

JMA shows on coast near Ft Pierce at 192hr

12z JMA @192hrs.

looks way too weak with the mb

[AutoPenalti]

Compared to yesterday's 0z, it's ~150 miles to the west.

this is NE of 0z run from last night judging at hr 168

Yes you're correct, I was looking at this morning's run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

JMA shows on coast near Ft Pierce at 192hr

12z JMA @192hrs.

The JMA wants to wipe Jupiter/Tequesta off the map

[TheStormExpert]

Big slow down between hours 144 and 168

Isn't this exactly what Frances did in the NW Bahamas 13 years ago?

[sma10]

This upper air pattern does not look much like the last two runs. Blip or permanent change? Check ensembles.

[TheStormExpert]

JMA shows on coast near Ft Pierce at 192hr

12z JMA @192hrs.

The JMA wants to wipe Jupiter/Tequesta off the map

And Palm Beach Gardens.

[AxaltaRacing24]

JMA shows on coast near Ft Pierce at 192hr

12z JMA @192hrs.

looks way too weak with the mb

The JMA is low res. 970 is a monster.

[alienstorm]

The trough is due north of it, this is why steering currents become very weak, slow movement until next feature carries it. If high builds in NW or wnw direction likely at a slow crawl.

[SouthFLTropics]

JMA shows on coast near Ft Pierce at 192hr

12z JMA @192hrs.

looks way too weak with the mb

JMA is low resolution...that's why. Go home JMA, you're drunk. We don't want Irma in St. Lucie County!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

Big slow down between hours 144 and 168

Isn't this exactly what Frances did in the NW Bahamas 13 years ago?

Frances was brutal...Dragged on through us for a couple of days. Although not near as long as Harvey in Houston. He gives new meaning to the term brutal.

[TheStormExpert]

192hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like compared to yesterday's 12z, it's faster and much more NE.

[Steve]

Here's the best map depiction from EC at 500mb. Look at the Trough across New England pulling out. Look to the west and see that massive high building in from the west. Bad timing for the US East Coast on this run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400