ATL: IRMA - Models

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M3gaMatch
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3161 Postby M3gaMatch » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:43 pm

ah huh, there's that second trough / trough extension again.
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ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3162 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:43 pm

quite a few more GFS members have shift way way west..

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3163 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:43 pm

Punts it NNE at 192...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3164 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:43 pm

Whew...Moving north at 192. Once again a global avoids hitting the peninsula.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3165 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:43 pm

Turn north on ECMWF, thank God! Keep it up with the NE turn next image. Save us trap door. We do not need this in NC, or US period.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3166 Postby Happy Pelican » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:43 pm

NJWxHurricane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
sma10 wrote:JMA shows on coast near Ft Pierce at 192hr

12z JMA @192hrs.

Image


looks way too weak with the mb


Still in the Heights? If we end up in the northeast quadrant, would that cause a Sandyesque surge? I can't wrap my ahead around this :double:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3167 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:44 pm

its about to do a loop lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3168 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:45 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Whew...Moving north at 192. Once again a global avoids hitting the peninsula.


Points north will not be so lucky. Physics demand a landfall on the East Coast after 192 hours - but where?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=400
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3169 Postby Mouton » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:45 pm

Looking like it will miss the trough, getting cut off east of Ft Miami?? Mindful of an "A" strorm where that happened....a deeping 920MB storm, medium size and with a HP to its north that will just not let up. :cry:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3170 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:46 pm

CMC Ensembles

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3171 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:46 pm

This might be OTS yet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3172 Postby M3gaMatch » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:46 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:This might be OTS yet.


agree
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3173 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:47 pm

Encouraging Euro run so far out to 216, could be OTS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3174 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:47 pm

As the trough pulls out into Newfoundland, the ridge to the east weakens a bit and backs up in response. However, the big building high coming in from the NW will create a block unless Irma moves immediately to follow the trough. And there are 1000 miles between the trough and Irma at that point on the ECMWF. Chances < 15% it won't landfall on this run.
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3175 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:47 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:CMC Ensembles

Image

Are they converging towards FL?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3176 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:47 pm

lol maybe a Jean loop .. silly models..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3177 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:49 pm

216... looks like a NE hit again.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3178 Postby birddogsc » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:49 pm

The joining of the continental and Bermuda high is interesting. Is there a synoptic flight scheduled?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3179 Postby alienstorm » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:49 pm

This run has it missing Fl and the east coast interesting. One of many runs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3180 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 02, 2017 1:49 pm

EC does NOT build a ridge to the NE. May allow this to go to Canada instead of the USA
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