ATL: IRMA - Models

[AdamFirst]

More immediate concern is potential impact to the Antilles...EURO bringing it too close for comfort for those folks

[SFLcane]

EURO essentially now agrees with the EPS

[Bocadude85]

What everyone needs to be paying attention to is the short term farther southwest forecast in the models. The fantasy range will continue to show a different solution every time. When we are 4-5 days out is when we will have a good idea of where Irma will end up.

[tolakram]

Euro 12z run

[northjaxpro]

Lots of scenarios still on the table. A monster cane in or around the Bahamas on a 180 hour plus model is still to close for comfort. The final chapter of this book is a long way off.

Yes. Too many scenarios still are there. No one on the U.S. East Coast or the Islands can sound the all clear yet that is for sure.

[brghteys1216]

Thats one run showing a recurve at 8+ days out. Have to wait and see. Next run could be right back at South Carolina.

[Frank P]

Dang, and only 3 days ago the ECMWF had Irma going though the Florida Straits... now its pretty much OTS... wow... unfreakingbelievable...

[NJWxHurricane]

What everyone needs to be paying attention to is the short term farther southwest forecast in the models. The fantasy range will continue to show a different solution every time. When we are 4-5 days out is when we will have a good idea of where Irma will end up.

you have to pay attention to the upper air pattern way b4 this

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Euro 12z run

Well, that's certainly a massive change from the past few days.

[NJWxHurricane]

Thats one run showing a recurve at 8+ days out. Have to wait and see. Next run could be right back at South Carolina.

this shifted atleast 1000 miles in one run, incredible

[Steve]

Crazy, crazy, crazy flip-flop this run by Euro. Not too characteristic of this model. We'll see....

It's Day 8+ lol... would be more unusual if it did not flip-flip.

Inside Day 7 the models have been fairly consistent in their solutions.

I'm finding this year, inside of 5. I realize that's anecdotal, but I do run them pretty much every day.

[drezee]

Amazed by the complete change at 500mb run to run...byt greater than 6 days out...it will change again.

[otowntiger]

Dang, and only 3 days ago the ECMWF had Irma going though the Florida Straits... now its pretty much OTS... wow... unfreakingbelievable...

Yeah, big shift but certainly a good one, right?

[AdamFirst]

Thats one run showing a recurve at 8+ days out. Have to wait and see. Next run could be right back at South Carolina.

this shifted atleast 1000 miles in one run, incredible

And that's usually around the margin of error of the models beyond 7 days.

Won't be until the middle of next week until we get a clearer picture about Irma in terms of CONUS impact.

[NJWxHurricane]

Thats one run showing a recurve at 8+ days out. Have to wait and see. Next run could be right back at South Carolina.

begins to curve around day 7

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Models flip-flopping... Much like Hagupit in 2014 and Bopha two years prior where models couldn't agree when the storm would be pulled by the trough. There are several other examples as well, perhaps Ike (?), but these two are what I have closely observed. It's certain the ridge would influence the storm over the next week but the timing of the recurve based on the ridge/trough would change everything...

Remember, stronger trough means stronger ridge.

[caneseddy]

Oh yay!!! One European run OTS and its all clear according to certain posters

The models are still having a bit of trouble with this trough/ridge scenario which could change..what we know for sure is there will be a Cat 4-Cat 5 in the Bahamas next week..who knows where it goes from there

Remember the latest GFS run had a run into Delmarva so anyone who says it's all clear is a fool..the entire east coast is still in pkay

Tuesday we will have a better idea when it's north of the islands

[Aric Dunn]

The big thing to take out of this is not the track .. its the synoptics.. run to run the models are not consistent at all with the trough.

this still has the potential to go into the carribean or be in the gulf or out to sea.. so dont let your guard down..

[Bocadude85]

What everyone needs to be paying attention to is the short term farther southwest forecast in the models. The fantasy range will continue to show a different solution every time. When we are 4-5 days out is when we will have a good idea of where Irma will end up.

you have to pay attention to the upper air pattern way b4 this

The upper air pattern is what the models are having a hard time forecasting. You need to look at trends, and the trend I see is southwest through 5 days.

[OuterBanker]

The 12z Euro.
I'll take it