ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1763
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3401 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:25 pm

NC getting grazed
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3370
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3402 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:25 pm

GFS pulls this nonsense all the time in the WPAC, especially with TC's on approach to Japan. Far too strong of a TC for that latitude.
5 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11558
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3403 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:26 pm

Big time slow down and intensification run-to-run 9/10 12Z
0 likes   
Top
WHYB630
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:19 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3404 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:26 pm

moving toward NC
Image
1 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3405 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:27 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:GFS pulls this nonsense all the time in the WPAC, especially with TC's on approach to Japan. Far too strong of a TC for that latitude.


the way this is interacting with the trough, it is actually semi plausible. Look at the IR to see just how absurd the outflow jet is
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3406 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:27 pm

A stall is definitely on the table also folks. Both HP ridges are bridging together and Irma just could get stuck and stall.
3 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3407 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:29 pm

so.. about 6 to 8 hrs slower for irma and stonger.. and about 6 hours faster on the trough.. interesting. though .. its still too far out.

still have to wait and see how far south this goes in the next 3 days.
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3408 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:29 pm

Looks like it will head into Chesapeake Bay at 204 hours
1 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3409 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:29 pm

looks like Irma doesn't want to drain the swamp but fill it with about a 20 foot plus storm surge...
9 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1763
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3410 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:29 pm

Image
1 likes   
Top
Vdogg
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:56 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3411 Postby Vdogg » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:30 pm

They'd have to issue a Hurricane warning for the entire Mid-Atlantic if this verifies...
3 likes   
Top
WHYB630
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:19 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3412 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:30 pm

gale wind or higher everywhere from SC to NY
Image
Last edited by WHYB630 on Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bocadude85
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2990
Age: 38
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
Location: Honolulu,Hi

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3413 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:30 pm

So another southwest shift with the GFS...
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3414 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:31 pm

Basically rides the whole entire Chesapeake
2 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3415 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:31 pm

Euro vs GFS

Image

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
NJWxHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:51 am
Location: Seaside Heights, NJ (Jersey Shore)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3416 Postby NJWxHurricane » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:So another southwest shift with the GFS...

it bounces around
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Happy Pelican
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 119
Joined: Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:12 pm
Location: Pelican Island, Jersey Shore

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3417 Postby Happy Pelican » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Looks like it will head into Chesapeake Bay at 204 hours


This puts Jersey Shore in the Northeast quadrant. We'll be crushed by the wind and surge. Damn. I literally just finished rebuilding from Sandy this past June. :double:
4 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1763
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3418 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:So another southwest shift with the GFS...

The euro ensembles shifted SW too. The trend continues. Keep in mind that if the euro would've showed a south landfall if not for that "miracle motion."
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3419 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

Crushing...

Image
2 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3420 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 02, 2017 5:32 pm

At 933 MB, swamp is at max full....geesh... GFS sticking to its guns on this...
2 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests