ATL: IRMA - Models

[weathaguyry]

Looks like it will head into Chesapeake Bay at 204 hours

This puts Jersey Shore in the Northeast quadrant. We'll be crushed by the wind and surge. Damn. I literally just finished rebuilding from Sandy this past June.

Yep, will certainly wreck a lot of houses here on coastal LI too

[SouthFLTropics]

Right up the Chesapeake and into DC...On 9/11 no less.

[txwatcher91]

GFS shifted west about 75 miles and has the western eyewall grazing the Outer Banks as a powerful category 5. Tropical storm force winds well inland too and across a large area, the storm surge would be very destructive.

[WHYB630]

Euro vs GFS

actually, not much difference (for something day8+)...
We hope she goes OTS but it is too early to say, IMO

[GCANE]

Thats a 100-mile wide F4 tornado.

[Cunxi Huang]

Oh ma goodness, that's 878 am i wrong

[Bocadude85]

So another southwest shift with the GFS...

it bounces around

A few days ago the GFS was in Nova Scotia, today's 18Z run is into Virginia. The trend has been southwest.

[Frank P]

that would be the most costly hurricane of all times... 300 billion plus... better hope that does not come to fruition... scary... but still have a bunch more days for the models to stress the hell outta us... glad I restocked my Crown supply... oh, and glad I'm on the MS coast right now too... don't want to build another house..

[Aric Dunn]

if the GFS is any slower at the 00z run with IRMA it may end up into SC to NC .. assuming it keeps the same timing of the trough..

[cajungal]

Couldn't even imagine if she was in the gulf heading towards the Louisiana coast at that pressure.

[northjaxpro]

This 18Z GFS run would be an absolute catastrophe for the entire Mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S. potentially if the 18Z GFS run shown comes anywhere close to fruition. This run was insane! WOW!

Plus do not forget how close Irma gets to PR on this run as well.

[tarheelprogrammer]

if the GFS is any slower at the 00z run with IRMA it may end up into SC to NC .. assuming it keeps the same timing of the trough..

Let us hope that the ECMWF is on to something. With all the rain we have been getting in SE NC we do not need a cat 4 or 5.

[brghteys1216]

What would happen should there be no trough at all, or a very week one? Would it continue west instead of turning north toward Virginia?

[SouthFLTropics]

I still think these models are too far north with this. Not by much but still too far north.

Here's why:

1.) I don't think (or hope) that Irma will be near as powerful in the Bahamian vicinity as the models are showing. If that is the case then it shouldn't be steered north as soon as it is showing.
2.) I don't think Irma will move as fast as some of the models are showing.
3.) IMHO I feel the end game is an approach to the Florida coastline with a turn to the north and a strike near the SC/NC line. I'm sticking with my Floyd analog.

[Ken711]

I still think these models are too far north with this. Not by much but still too far north.

Here's why:

1.) I don't think (or hope) that Irma will be near as powerful in the Bahamian vicinity as the models are showing. If that is the case then it shouldn't be steered north as soon as it is showing.
2.) I don't think Irma will move as fast as some of the models are showing.
3.) IMHO I feel the end game is an approach to the Florida coastline with a turn to the north and a strike near the SC/NC line. I'm sticking with my Floyd analog.

Further south could be an Isabel track which I still believe is possible but I hope not.

[Nimbus]

if the GFS is any slower at the 00z run with IRMA it may end up into SC to NC .. assuming it keeps the same timing of the trough..

So you think slower and deeper Irma pumps the ridge?

What do you think the chances are that a deep trough splits and ridging builds through early?

[WHYB630]

The track might happen, but how could a hurricane be that strong (like <880hPa) when it approaches the US continent? Shouldn't it suck the dry air and weaken a bit before it's getting close?

[weathaguyry]

It will be interesting to see what the 0z Euro shows tonight...

[weathaguyry]

The track might happen, but how could a hurricane be that strong (like <880hPa) when it approaches the US continent? Shouldn't it suck the dry air and weaken a bit before it's getting close?

It makes me wonder if it could turn hybrid before landfall, like Sandy

[Ken711]

if the GFS is any slower at the 00z run with IRMA it may end up into SC to NC .. assuming it keeps the same timing of the trough..

Let us hope that the ECMWF is on to something. With all the rain we have been getting in SE NC we do not need a cat 4 or 5.

I agree. But, I would bet it moves West the next run.