ATL: IRMA - Models

[pgoss11]

:uarrow: 880MB at 25N...Possible? Maybe. Likely...I don't think so!!!

And no one in the world ever the thought the models showing Harvey dropping 50+ inches of rain was correct.

[Frank P]

Well damn

Look at the BOC... what kind of effect on Irma could that have on the future track??

[Aric Dunn]

Another run like this and Puerto Rico is dealing with the eye of a Cat 5... HWRF Trend

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/pqi3d7r5l/hwrf_mslp_wind_11_L_fh102_trend.gif[/ig]

or just a wobble......

[Bocadude85]

Direct hit on Anguilla at 93hr this run?

Yup and the BVI look to take a direct hit on the 18Z HWRF also.

[tgenius]

But I gotta figure with the southern shifts also increases a bit the likelihood Irma goes through the mountains of hispanola to disrupt a bit wouldn't it?

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: 880MB at 25N...Possible? Maybe. Likely...I don't think so!!!

Doesn't the GFS also over estimate intensity?

I would guess that the GFS is probably overcooking it at the higher latitudes. Maybe in the Bahamas it would be possible but Sub 900 North of the Bahamas to SC/NC. Not likely.

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow: 880MB at 25N...Possible? Maybe. Likely...I don't think so!!!

And no one in the world ever the thought the models showing Harvey dropping 50+ inches of rain was correct.

This is true as well. Like I said, possible, but probably not likely.

[Aric Dunn]

Well damn

Look at the BOC... what kind of effect on Irma could that have on the future track??

well.. the EURO runs that moved into gulf ahd a stronger "JOSE" ? .. once the Euro showed little to no system in the bOC the east trend started. could be from the cut off low over the mississippi valley that the euro was producing that creating a better environment over the BOC

[SouthFLTropics]

But I gotta figure with the southern shifts also increases a bit the likelihood Irma goes through the mountains of hispanola to disrupt a bit wouldn't it?

That COULD be a saving grace for the CONUS but it would be devastating to Hispaniola. The loss of life would be severe.

[ROCK]

Be careful with the NAVGEM verification speaking it is not the sharpest model in the shed....The EURO runs are bad for someone in FL and the EC....way to far out to pinpoint are even make an educated guess attm. What we do know is this is not coming into the GOM which is a good thing.

[sma10]

But I gotta figure with the southern shifts also increases a bit the likelihood Irma goes through the mountains of hispanola to disrupt a bit wouldn't it?

Still need to have a more sizable shift, but sure, i don't think it can be totally off the table yet. Just unlikely

[SouthFLTropics]

So HWRF is basically 1 full latitude degree south of 12z run. Which begs this relevant question: how reliable is this model? Any biases? How much stock should we put into its solution?

If anything I've always noticed that the HWRF may have a right bias. If that's the case then this is serious trouble for our friends in the islands.

[wxmann_91]

:uarrow: 880MB at 25N...Possible? Maybe. Likely...I don't think so!!!

And no one in the world ever the thought the models showing Harvey dropping 50+ inches of rain was correct.

One was meteorologically and physically sensible. The other is not.

[ronjon]

So HWRF is basically 1 full latitude degree south of 12z run. Which begs this relevant question: how reliable is this model? Any biases? How much stock should we put into its solution?

Never put much stock in one model run but look for trends in the guidance. Is the model shifting in one direction with successive runs? HWRF has been accurate especially with very strong storms.

[Steve]

So HWRF is basically 1 full latitude degree south of 12z run. Which begs this relevant question: how reliable is this model? Any biases? How much stock should we put into its solution?

I personally hate it, but sometimes it's the best model. There's a history with it as it was supposed to be the hurricane model of record beyond the GFDL or whatever. But it often was out to lunch. They worked on it a few times, and I think it's supposed to be replaced at some point. SouthDadeFish or Alyono can probably tell you what really happened or is going to happen with it.

Here you go. I guess it was 16/17.
http://www.hfip.org/events/annual_meeti ... _Model.pdf

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great to see u Rock welcome back.

[Steve]

Be careful with the NAVGEM verification speaking it is not the sharpest model in the shed....The EURO runs are bad for someone in FL and the EC....way to far out to pinpoint are even make an educated guess attm. What we do know is this is not coming into the GOM which is a good thing.

Hey Rock. Hope things are getting brighter your way these days. Go back a few pages. Someone posted a verification of Irma and NAVGEM was either #1 or #2 so far. I know. I know. It's probably a fluke so far. But you can't count it out if it's owning the pack on track.

[txwatcher91]

So HWRF is basically 1 full latitude degree south of 12z run. Which begs this relevant question: how reliable is this model? Any biases? How much stock should we put into its solution?

If anything I've always noticed that the HWRF may have a right bias. If that's the case then this is serious trouble for our friends in the islands.

With Harvey it consistently was taking this either into Mexico or right into extreme southern Texas, then turning it left into the mountains of Mexico and dissipating it. It took it awhile to catch on to the GFS/Euro solutions so I wouldn't put too much weight into it at this point.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF almost 2 degrees further South at 117 hours

[Aric Dunn]

looks like it turned back west almost .. getting very close to DR