ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Somebody should get Irma some Aquaphor. At least I know when I inhale dry air I need some...

[Aric Dunn]

Just an observation, not based on science, but just experience watching hurricanes. When a storm is being forced S of due W, sometimes that S motion component persists longer than forecast. We saw this with Katrina over FL and Ike over Cuba for example... both were delayed in resuming a W and WNW direction. Not saying this setup is the same, but I hope for the sake of those in the islands that Irma doesn't delay her turn back W and WNW.

yep.. possibly another reason the NHC is staying mostly on the south side of Guidance.

[psyclone]

Just an observation, not based on science, but just experience watching hurricanes. When a storm is being forced S of due W, sometimes that S motion component persists longer than forecast. We saw this with Katrina over FL and Ike over Cuba for example... both were delayed in resuming a W and WNW direction. Not saying this setup is the same, but I hope for the sake of those in the islands that Irma doesn't delay her turn back W and WNW.

That's a great point. I remember Katrina being referred to as "stubborn" in an advisory due to the persistent southwest movement that lasted longer than anticipated. It really moved the landfall needle too. Recall early forecasts showed an Apalachicola impact.

[Gustywind]

That 5 PM advisory is making me nervous, Cycloneye

I understand me too as many of others neighbours in my north too! We have to follow carefully the wsw or sw move!

[psyclone]

For me the biggest takeaway today is the increasing risk to the NE Caribbean. It's going to be uncomfortably close at the very least. It's going to be a long wait to determine potential CONUS impacts.

[knotimpaired]

It looks like they are going to stop the ferries Monday afternoon and move them to San Juan

Corrected I said Wednesday, I meant Monday afternoon.

[Blown Away]

Map represents all hurricanes that moved within 65 miles of the NHC 5 day position for Irma at 22N/68W...

Take away the cluster that turn N or NNE at that position because I see no models currently showing a very sharp turn N or NE at 22N/68W... I only see a few that were able to escape without hitting land... Looks to be about 50/50 going either W to Florida/GOM or NE CONUS...

The 18z GFS was Connie all over again...

Notice none make that close swipe offshore Florida than curve N, so I think we will see the models trend more NE and fall in line with a landfall/close call for the NE CONUS or that HP will become more dominant and it will become a S Florida storm... My 2 cents...

[Alyono]

some decent shear over this now. Definitely undercutting the very impressive 200mb outflow

[wxmann_91]

Microwave imagery shows a big hook of dry air wrapping towards the core. Looks like a probable ailment to me.

https://i.imgur.com/cMoIdaC.jpg?1

Maybe just my eyes but it does look like the low-level and mid-level centers are not perfectly aligned due to northerly shear.

[Ken711]

https://i.imgur.com/cTRwdjY.jpg
Map represents all hurricanes that moved within 65 miles of the NHC 5 day position for Irma at 22N/68W...

Take away the cluster that turn N or NNE at that position because I see no models currently showing a very sharp turn N or NE at 22N/68W... I only see a few that were able to escape without hitting land... Looks to be about 50/50 going either W to Florida/GOM or NE CONUS...

The 18z GFS was Connie all over again...

Notice none make that close swipe offshore Florida than curve N, so I think we will see the models trend more NE and fall in line with a landfall/close call for the NE CONUS or that HP will become more dominant and it will become a S Florida storm... My 2 cents...

Was Isabel one of them?

[tgenius]

Somewhat off topic but went to the museum of science today and they had a hurricane simulator to feel the difference between tropical depression, storm and cat1 winds. Gotta say cat1 is no joke so It's shocking after watching Jeff in the middle of 3/4 winds for Harvey!

[Blown Away]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cTRwdjY.jpg
Map represents all hurricanes that moved within 65 miles of the NHC 5 day position for Irma at 22N/68W...

Take away the cluster that turn N or NNE at that position because I see no models currently showing a very sharp turn N or NE at 22N/68W... I only see a few that were able to escape without hitting land... Looks to be about 50/50 going either W to Florida/GOM or NE CONUS...

The 18z GFS was Connie all over again...

Notice none make that close swipe offshore Florida than curve N, so I think we will see the models trend more NE and fall in line with a landfall/close call for the NE CONUS or that HP will become more dominant and it will become a S Florida storm... My 2 cents...

Was Isabel one of them?

Don't think so, I used 65 mile radius from 22N/68W and I think Isabel was farther than 65 miles...

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Somewhat off topic but went to the museum of science today and they had a hurricane simulator to feel the difference between tropical depression, storm and cat1 winds. Gotta say cat1 is no joke so It's shocking after watching Jeff in the middle of 3/4 winds for Harvey!

I've been inside one of those and I was disappointed they listed category 5 storms on the side of the device but the wind speed only went to 80 mph. I mean it''s probably for safety reasons but you can stay standing when it's directed downward a lot more than when it's directed sideways. As such the cat 1 winds were...underwhelming.

In any case as they always say, it's not the wind but what's blowing IN the wind that gets ya.

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/2345 UTC 18.6N 45.4W T4.5/5.0 IRMA

[eastcoastFL]

Somewhat off topic but went to the museum of science today and they had a hurricane simulator to feel the difference between tropical depression, storm and cat1 winds. Gotta say cat1 is no joke so It's shocking after watching Jeff in the middle of 3/4 winds for Harvey!

I've been inside one of those and I was disappointed they listed category 5 storms on the side of the device but the wind speed only went to 80 mph. I mean it''s probably for safety reasons but you can stay standing when it's directed downward a lot more than when it's directed sideways. As such the cat 1 winds were...underwhelming.

In any case as they always say, it's not the wind but what's blowing IN the wind that gets ya.

I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.

[abajan]

Is it just me, or does Irma appear to be becoming Annular?
[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif[img]

It's just you.

[Gustywind]

Given my untrained eyes Is Irma is moving much more west since 1 hour than the previous slight wsw move?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[AxaltaRacing24]

Given my untrained eyes Is Irma is moving much more west since 1 hour than the previous slight wsw move?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Still looks WSW. Look at the general area of the eye. Still diving.

[Evenstar]

Somewhat off topic but went to the museum of science today and they had a hurricane simulator to feel the difference between tropical depression, storm and cat1 winds. Gotta say cat1 is no joke so It's shocking after watching Jeff in the middle of 3/4 winds for Harvey!

I've been inside one of those and I was disappointed they listed category 5 storms on the side of the device but the wind speed only went to 80 mph. I mean it''s probably for safety reasons but you can stay standing when it's directed downward a lot more than when it's directed sideways. As such the cat 1 winds were...underwhelming.

In any case as they always say, it's not the wind but what's blowing IN the wind that gets ya.

I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.

Okay, that's hilarious. As I contemplate the potential for annihilation here in the Tidewater area of VA, you've managed to make me laugh. I owe you one.

P.S. No disrespect intended for your flying Chihuahua...

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 11, 2017090300, , BEST, 0, 184N, 456W, 95, 973, HU