ATL: IRMA - Models

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance:

[tgenius]

00Z guidance:

Well the SFWM plots look shifted east and north so that's a positive given current models. Let's hope it keeps going and recurring away from CONUS.

By the way, gators offense is offensive. So disappointing!

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904142713070784513

[AutoPenalti]

00Z guidance:

Well the SFWM plots look shifted east and north so that's a positive given current models. Let's hope it keeps going and recurring away from CONUS.

By the way, gators offense is offensive. So disappointing!

I think it shifted west, there's still landfall in the Carolinas.

[weathaguyry]

Compared to 18z, the intensity guide looks a little bullish, with lots of models taking it to a cat 4

[Aric Dunn]

00Z guidance:

Well the SFWM plots look shifted east and north so that's a positive given current models. Let's hope it keeps going and recurring away from CONUS.

By the way, gators offense is offensive. So disappointing!

East ? Everything is going west..

Also great way to always see how back and forth the models are and why past 3 days you just looks at as a possibility..
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=11

[AxaltaRacing24]

Compared to 18z, the intensity guide looks a little bullish, with lots of models taking it to a cat 4

You can tell on sat imagery that this will not be struggling for much longer.

[Ken711]

00Z guidance:

Well the SFWM plots look shifted east and north so that's a positive given current models. Let's hope it keeps going and recurring away from CONUS.

By the way, gators offense is offensive. So disappointing!

I think it shifted west, there's still landfall in the Carolinas.

Yes. At least for these plots it would appear GOM and FL could be looking better. Not so much for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

[meriland29]

I wonder if 00z Euro will keep it's trend or be more in agreement with 18z GFS, which has been very persistent at hitting that area of the US for quite some time now..

[AxaltaRacing24]

After looking at Matthew's model thread, this is why you don't sound all clear bells 8-11 days out. Look at this agreement 2-4 days out. We all know what happened after with the shifts. Nothing is set in stone yet.

[tolakram]

After looking at Matthew's model thread, this is why you don't sound all clear bells 8-11 days out. Look at this agreement 2-4 days out. We all know what happened after with the shifts.
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/0V6fagg.jpg[/img]

This is also a great example of why we want everyone to copy images to a hosting site first, so we don't lose these images.

[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904142713070784513

In that Twitter thread they're talking winds of 200mph.. Are we seeing the same intensity GFS and other models' forecasting issue with the models that we saw with the Typhoon that struck Japan a few weeks back? (I don't remember the name of the Typhoon)

[tolakram]

After looking at Matthew's model thread, this is why you don't sound all clear bells 8-11 days out. Look at this agreement 2-4 days out. We all know what happened after with the shifts. Nothing is set in stone yet.
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/0V6fagg.jpg[/img]

Also,

UKmet just about nailed it.

[otowntiger]

After looking at Matthew's model thread, this is why you don't sound all clear bells 8-11 days out. Look at this agreement 2-4 days out. We all know what happened after with the shifts. Nothing is set in stone yet.

Good find and good point. Still got a ways to go to be certain of the track.

[AxaltaRacing24]

After looking at Matthew's model thread, this is why you don't sound all clear bells 8-11 days out. Look at this agreement 2-4 days out. We all know what happened after with the shifts. Nothing is set in stone yet.
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/0V6fagg.jpg[/img]

Also,

UKmet just about nailed it.

It was much closer than the rest of the globals at that time. Was almost a foreshadowing of what the rest of that day would bring. (Now back to Irma )

[SFLcane]

Aric makes a good point models are shifting west..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=11

[robbielyn]

right now looks like ukmet is pointing towards carolinas

[AutoPenalti]

Well the SFWM plots look shifted east and north so that's a positive given current models. Let's hope it keeps going and recurring away from CONUS.

By the way, gators offense is offensive. So disappointing!

I think it shifted west, there's still landfall in the Carolinas.

Yes. At least for these plots it would appear GOM and FL could be looking better. Not so much for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

I still believe there's an equal chance for FL but not so much the GOM.

[ronjon]

Look at the 18z HWRF-P....scary run making a beeline toward south florida. But we know there's a trough in the long range after 5 days so whew! I think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=11L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090218&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[sma10]

Well the SFWM plots look shifted east and north so that's a positive given current models. Let's hope it keeps going and recurring away from CONUS.

By the way, gators offense is offensive. So disappointing!

I think it shifted west, there's still landfall in the Carolinas.

Yes. At least for these plots it would appear GOM and FL could be looking better. Not so much for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

Aren't most of the models in this suite ... uhmm ... less than robust?