ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

You guys! Take a little laugh break!

I just heard the weather guy (I don't think they're Promets!) on FNC talking about Irma, and he referenced the "Cone of Uncertainty...."

But what I HEARD him say was the "Cone of Absurdity"

HAhahaha



Sorry, just struck me funny. This whole thing is getting to be a "cone of absurdity."

[Michele B]

Given my untrained eyes Is Irma is moving much more west since 1 hour than the previous slight wsw move?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Still looks WSW. Look at the general area of the eye. Still diving.

Wasn't it supposed to do that for 24-48 hours?

[eastcoastFL]

Grand Turk now on top of the list of probability for winds at 120 hours

GRAND TURK 34 22(22)
GRAND TURK 50 9( 9)
GRAND TURK 64 4( 4)

[AxaltaRacing24]

Given my untrained eyes Is Irma is moving much more west since 1 hour than the previous slight wsw move?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Still looks WSW. Look at the general area of the eye. Still diving.

Wasn't it supposed to do that for 24-48 hours?

It hasn't really started diving fast yet but it will. It was doing it a bit faster than expected earlier. Tomorrow is when it will really start to take place.

[eastcoastFL]

Given my untrained eyes Is Irma is moving much more west since 1 hour than the previous slight wsw move?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Still looks WSW. Look at the general area of the eye. Still diving.

Wasn't it supposed to do that for 24-48 hours?

It's forecast to continue this motion for the next 2+ days.

[eastcoastFL]

I've been inside one of those and I was disappointed they listed category 5 storms on the side of the device but the wind speed only went to 80 mph. I mean it''s probably for safety reasons but you can stay standing when it's directed downward a lot more than when it's directed sideways. As such the cat 1 winds were...underwhelming.

In any case as they always say, it's not the wind but what's blowing IN the wind that gets ya.

I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.

Okay, that's hilarious. As I contemplate the potential for annihilation here in the Tidewater area of VA, you've managed to make me laugh. I owe you one.

P.S. No disrespect intended for your flying Chihuahua...

It was the first hurricane for both me and the doggy. I was 20 then and now I have 2 kids. Matthew was their first hurricane and just to put you at ease I didn't take them out during it

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.

Okay, that's hilarious. As I contemplate the potential for annihilation here in the Tidewater area of VA, you've managed to make me laugh. I owe you one.

P.S. No disrespect intended for your flying Chihuahua...

It was the first hurricane for both me and the doggy. I was 20 then and now I have 2 kids. Matthew was their first hurricane and just to put you at ease I didn't take them out during it

My chihuahua Luna had to do a bunch of big poops after being cooped up in the home for days from Harvey. So yeah, you should probably keep them inside, though eventually, you do have to take them out...

(How does a teacup cyclone have a chihuahua? Hahahaha you will never know.)

[Alyono]

thi is moving a bit faster than was expected. GFS solution may have more credibility. It's moving close to 15 kts

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it has wobbled a little wsw. Also the ERC appears to moving along. Seeing a larger eye outline now.

[abajan]

Good morning everyone
I am following all the updates and comments.
Thank you
St Maarten people are taking this seriously. Lots of ply wood being sold.
FYI, Tuesday September 5th is the 22nd anniversary of when Hurricane Luis destroyed our little island.

Thinking of you, Barbara. Late this afternoon, someone told me they'd spoken on the phone earlier in the afternoon, to a friend who lives in St Kitts. The friend said that with memories of Hugo in the minds of most Kittitians, they're taking the situation very seriously there too. (Of course, the track Hugo took was far worse than the currently projected one of Irma.)

As to Hurricane Luis, I can vividly recall that monster sending massive swells to normally placid beaches here in Barbados.

[GeneratorPower]

thi is moving a bit faster than was expected. GFS solution may have more credibility. It's moving close to 15 kts

Ridge likely stronger than modeled. Forcing it WSW at a faster speed.

[Aric Dunn]

thi is moving a bit faster than was expected. GFS solution may have more credibility. It's moving close to 15 kts

Ridge likely stronger than modeled. Forcing it WSW at a faster speed.

The forward motion is one thing.. the big player is when the turn happens. How far south it gets will act like a slower or faster system.

[eastcoastFL]

Okay, that's hilarious. As I contemplate the potential for annihilation here in the Tidewater area of VA, you've managed to make me laugh. I owe you one.

P.S. No disrespect intended for your flying Chihuahua...

It was the first hurricane for both me and the doggy. I was 20 then and now I have 2 kids. Matthew was their first hurricane and just to put you at ease I didn't take them out during it

My chihuahua Luna had to do a bunch of big poops after being cooped up in the home for days from Harvey. So yeah, you should probably keep them inside, though eventually, you do have to take them out...

(How does a teacup cyclone have a chihuahua? Hahahaha you will never know.)

How long were you guys cooped up inside during Harvey?

[BatzVI]

thi is moving a bit faster than was expected. GFS solution may have more credibility. It's moving close to 15 kts

Ridge likely stronger than modeled. Forcing it WSW at a faster speed.

The forward motion is one thing.. the big player is when the turn happens. How far south it gets will act like a slower or faster system.

What would that mean for the northern islands...I'm on St. Thomas

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904154673204137984

[storm_in_a_teacup]

It was the first hurricane for both me and the doggy. I was 20 then and now I have 2 kids. Matthew was their first hurricane and just to put you at ease I didn't take them out during it

My chihuahua Luna had to do a bunch of big poops after being cooped up in the home for days from Harvey. So yeah, you should probably keep them inside, though eventually, you do have to take them out...

(How does a teacup cyclone have a chihuahua? Hahahaha you will never know.)

How long were you guys cooped up inside during Harvey?

So...I was not in town at the time, but my parents were, and they had Luna with them. I think they got stuck there for 3-4 days. Fortunately Luna was able to do some potties through a window.

[SouthFLTropics]

thi is moving a bit faster than was expected. GFS solution may have more credibility. It's moving close to 15 kts

Ridge likely stronger than modeled. Forcing it WSW at a faster speed.

The forward motion is one thing.. the big player is when the turn happens. How far south it gets will act like a slower or faster system.

Aric brings up an excellent point here. You can sprint in a straight line and get some where pretty quick. If you run around the block at the same speed it's going to take you a little bit longer.

[sma10]

Ridge likely stronger than modeled. Forcing it WSW at a faster speed.

The forward motion is one thing.. the big player is when the turn happens. How far south it gets will act like a slower or faster system.

Aric brings up an excellent point here. You can sprint in a straight line and get some where pretty quick. If you run around the block at the same speed it's going to take you a little bit longer.

Maybe also gives credence to HWRF which moves even faster than GFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

The forward motion is one thing.. the big player is when the turn happens. How far south it gets will act like a slower or faster system.

Aric brings up an excellent point here. You can sprint in a straight line and get some where pretty quick. If you run around the block at the same speed it's going to take you a little bit longer.

Maybe also gives credence to HWRF which moves even faster than GFS.

Possibly. If the HWRF dive is longer and more pronounced it would have to go faster to meet at the same end point as the GFS with a shallower dive.

[Blown Away]

Irma losing latitude quickly now..
Lowest Latitude Predicted By Past Few Forecasts:
5pm: 16.8 (Today)
11am: 17.1
5am: 17.0
11pm: 16.8 (Last Night)

** I'll be interested to see if the 11pm drops lower than 16.8, farther S Irma goes the longer it will take to go W and becomes a closer call for NE Caribbean... Something to watch...