ATL: IRMA - Models

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WHYB630
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3721 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:26 pm

EC vs GFS: Ridge vs no ridge

Image
Image
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Steve
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3722 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:26 pm

Looks like a Category 5 heading toward Wilmington/Jacksonville, NC based on the 200mb stream flow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3723 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:26 pm

Image

0z UKMET is the blue line


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3724 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:26 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:So people are saying that the trough got it? Does that mean out to sea?


No way...I think it's headed for the SC/NC border.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3725 Postby tgenius » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:26 pm

Going to sleep but by time I wake up we will have 06z GFS and the 00z Euro in the books. Hoping these western shifts stop :/
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3726 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:27 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Image

0z UKMET is the blue line


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Time for these trends to stop lol.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3727 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:27 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/ukmet.txt

Ukmet shifts West big time!!!


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Wow that's a pretty huge southwest shift
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3728 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:27 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image

If this run happened Florida east coast would need a tropical storm watch by Friday and hurricane watch north of that
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3729 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:27 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3730 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:28 pm

No disrespect to anyone but damn way to many counter productive post. it got caught heading NNE but wait no it stalled trending west, lets all give an attempt to post what is really going on.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3731 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:28 pm

That is the lowest MB for any ATL landffall I've ever seen predicted.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3732 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:28 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:No disrespect to anyone but damn way to many counter productive post. it got caught heading NNE but wait no it stalled trending west, lets all give an attempt to post what is really going on.

I'll post the full run in a min.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3733 Postby crimi481 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:28 pm

Looks like only way it go go is south - or no where
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3734 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:28 pm

Steve wrote:Looks like a Category 5 heading toward Wilmington/New Bern/Jacksonville, NC based on the 200mb stream flow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300


Headed up to see Mark at Hurricanetrack.com, won't have far to go to cover this one.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3735 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:29 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Image


884 mb, that's insane for an Atlantic hurricane, especially one in this position. :double: :eek:
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3736 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:29 pm

Canadian hits fla
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3737 Postby pcolaman » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:29 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image

If this run happened Florida east coast would need a tropical storm watch by Friday and hurricane watch north of that

How do you evacuate the whole state of Florida?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3738 Postby WHYB630 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:30 pm

landfall
also, how would a block like that form in September?

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3739 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:30 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Canadian hits fla


Image

Here it is.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3740 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:30 pm

Landfall. Looks like a Category 5 into southern North Carolina on the GFS.
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