ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1661 Postby lando » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:19 pm

marciacubed wrote:What does that mean for SoFl?


There's really not much known and a more definite answer will be able to be given closer to mid week.
At the moment every model run is just another possibility not probability. And don't pay attention to people who will post about a "trend" after one run, or automatically say it is going out to sea...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1662 Postby Siker » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:24 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:This is becoming less likely to become a Cat 5. It's one ERC after another like Katy Perry's Hot N Cold


What? Most models are predicting this to be a 5 near the Bahamas, not before the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1663 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:24 pm

marciacubed wrote:What does that mean for SoFl?

I think the thought is if Irma moves a bit slower than what Euro was showing it would allow the HP to build in and prevent OTS near the E CONUS...
So the farther S Irma goes the more time it will take..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1664 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:26 pm

We won't really know how far south the ridge is going to build in until Irma begins to turn back to her WNW.

With the models fighting over the strength of the ridge they'll probably get a better handle on it at that point because we'll understand more of the extent of the ridge.

Until then we watch and wait...and guess.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1665 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:30 pm

I've been really curious about how the subtropical ridges work recently so I've been reading up on it. Here's something interesting that I came across for anyone else that is a curious amatuer like me:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-re ... ical-highs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1666 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:34 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:This is becoming less likely to become a Cat 5. It's one ERC after another like Katy Perry's Hot N Cold

Irma has about a week (perhaps more) in the vast warm open ocean, with low vertical wind shear which means there is a lot of potential for this to intensify further. It already began entering more favorable conditions a few hours back and would continue amid drifting west-southwest.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1667 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:49 pm

Without getting into the hard core science of it all. We can simply check out a visible satellite loop, and observe how convection is clearly increasing out ahead of Irma. Convection is increasing in the banding out ahead in the southwest quadrant. This is a tell tale sign that Irma is heading into an increasingly favorable environment. We can maybe expect to see an increase in Irma's size, and more explosive intensification. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1668 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:50 pm

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/stat ... 6408056832

Just a reminder of how off the models were this far out for Matthew.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1669 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:52 pm

hurricanehunter69 wrote:Without getting into the hard core science of it all. We can simply check out a visible satellite loop, and observe how convection is clearly increasing out ahead of Irma. Convection is increasing in the banding out ahead in the southwest quadrant. This is a tell tale sign that Irma is heading into an increasingly favorable environment. We can maybe expect to see an increase in Irma's size, and more explosive intensification. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html



If she were to encounter some shear now would it end up being a wash with the rest of her environment being so friendly?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1670 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:07 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
hurricanehunter69 wrote:Without getting into the hard core science of it all. We can simply check out a visible satellite loop, and observe how convection is clearly increasing out ahead of Irma. Convection is increasing in the banding out ahead in the southwest quadrant. This is a tell tale sign that Irma is heading into an increasingly favorable environment. We can maybe expect to see an increase in Irma's size, and more explosive intensification. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html



If she were to encounter some shear now would it end up being a wash with the rest of her environment being so friendly?

It depends on the strength of the shear. Moderate to strong shear would definitely cause the potential of the environment being a wash. In this case however, the environment in regards to shear is quite favorable. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1671 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:23 pm

Alyono wrote:
harvey intensified during it's ewrc. Not even Haiyan did that. Harvey is by far the exception with regards to ewrcs


Hagupit in 2014 went up to Cat5 while undergoing EWRC, if I'm not mistaken. I think EWRCs fail when conditions are not that conducive (dry air, lack of vigorous outflow, etc).
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1672 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:31 pm

I like reading the models thread, but I am personally in now cast mode with Irma. Now that the southwest turn has definitely occurred, I am very interested and closely monitoring how far south Irma digs, and if the storm penetrates the ( Hebert Box ). What if the storm digs farther south than forecasted? I'm curious to see (when ) Irma resumes a north component to it's movement and how sharp the north turn is? What if Irma moves much more WNW as opposed to NW? All these subtle differences can have significant implications as to where Irma eventually ends up. I'll be closely monitoring the fluid upper level dynamics in the Central United States water vapor loops. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1673 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:44 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
Alyono wrote:
harvey intensified during it's ewrc. Not even Haiyan did that. Harvey is by far the exception with regards to ewrcs


Hagupit in 2014 went up to Cat5 while undergoing EWRC, if I'm not mistaken. I think EWRCs fail when conditions are not that conducive (dry air, lack of vigorous outflow, etc).



yep, Hagupit did that and it was much stronger than Harvey. It's poleward outflow was superb. Alyono even made a remark about it on the Hagupit thread.

Alyono wrote:Last year, I was horrified when Haiyan maintained its intensity during its eyewall replacement.

This year, I have no words for how Hagupit intensified during its eyewall replacement
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1674 Postby NotSparta » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:57 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:Looks like the warmer waters are really starting to help Irma out. EWRC almost done based on a recent 37GHz pass.


Don't worry, the next one will come at clockwork, around 7 in the morning :P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1675 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:02 am

Questions for some more experienced folks:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

In this water vapor animation is the brown area to her North dry air or the subtropical ridge pushing her south?

Is it also separating her from the ULL to her NW?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1676 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:14 am

I want to put this in perspective... take the current NHC track. and I want you to visualize this shape as it will be nearly exactly the same throughout. now picture the souther most point and extend that only 50 to 100 miles west. ..

meaning take the forecast track and move the southern most point 50 to100 miles ( 6 hours of west motion before the turn ) ..

now I have done the math and in a rough sense. only a 50 to 100 mile continued west motion at the southern point of the track BEFORE it starts to turn puts the center over PR.. thats how important it is to pay attention to how far south and when the turn starts..

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1677 Postby Irina » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:19 am

Why are we not worrying about our friends in the Antilles?
I lived there. They are thriving and active islands with families and children and
airports and danger.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1678 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:22 am

Irina wrote:Why are we not worrying about our friends in the Antilles?
I lived there. They are thriving and active islands with families and children and
airports and danger.


we are ! its just that we know its going to affect them regardless in some way. hurricane force winds look likely. so the focus is the "unknown" right now? thoughts and prayers are always going out to those in the path ! :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1679 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:29 am

There is some sort of a pressure or gravitational wave coming in from the NNE flattening( downward motion) the cirrus and maybe mid level clouds. interesting to see if that affects this in the short term. alwasy fun to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

actually appears mostly below the cirrus deck. quite likely a gravity wave from somewhere as they can travel large distances. there is convection building in a outer band behind that wave so .. it is a wave of some sort. hard to tell
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:33 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1680 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:30 am

Aric Dunn wrote:There is some sort of a pressure or gravitational wave coming in from the NNE flattening( downward motion) the cirrus and maybe mid level clouds. interesting to see if that affects this in the short term. alwasy fun to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


I noticed that too but wasn't sure if that's the ridge or some kind of dry air
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