ATL: IRMA - Models

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3801 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:23 am

GFS00z (hires)

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3802 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:26 am

A hair WNW of 18z due to faster forward speed. Pretty much on the same track as 18z.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3803 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:30 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:A hair WNW of 18z due to faster forward speed. Pretty much on the same track as 18z.

Image


Yup the BVI are in the southern eyewall
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3804 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:31 am

The 0z HMON is 3 degrees southwest of the 18Z run
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3805 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:32 am

It really sucks when you check the latest model run, and hope it isn't the same outcome as it's been for the past day or two, and it is and then some. GFS keeps inching closer to a really bad situation. Still far out, but man, it just is really unsettling to see the same model run consecutively. Hopefully SC, NC, GA, N. FL, doesn't have to deal with that insanity.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3806 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:34 am

Image

Navgem at 120hrs shifts SW


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3807 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:36 am

Checking in for the Euro in Washington DC.

Wishing Aric the Happiest of Birthdays! :sun:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3808 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:37 am

There very little Northerly component to the HWRF as its passing PR ..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3809 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:38 am

WeatherLovingDoc wrote:Checking in for the Euro in Washington DC.

Wishing Aric the Happiest of Birthdays! :sun:


He's a good dude!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3810 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:39 am

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Navgem approaching South Florida. Tremendous west shift!!!


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3811 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:39 am

Aric Dunn wrote:There very little Northerly component to the HWRF as its passing PR ..


At 36 hours, it's at about 16.5N, by 105, it's nudging 20N (67.2W) and 114 hours it's crossing 21N.
Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3812 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:41 am

Nav shifts west coming for a landfall
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3813 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:41 am

Aric Dunn wrote:There very little Northerly component to the HWRF as its passing PR ..


I know. We'll see as it gets into the Bahamas, but I am definitely favoring a more westerly course than models are currently showing.
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3814 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:41 am

Those HWRF plots does anyone know @ what height those wind speeds are progged.
ok its 10m
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3815 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:42 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:In case anyone didn't realize it, one more SW shift like that by the GFS puts the Florida Peninsula in play. Two more possibly puts the Eastern GOM in play.


One of the worst outcomes is a major into SE FL crossing the peninsula and then into Gulf. That's a guaranteed double hit.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3816 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:45 am

European has been initialized. HWRF has 12 more hours to go. It's at 933mb at 114 and positioned about 20.85N 69.3W
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3817 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:45 am

Well, not liking the trends tonight ugh. :double:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3818 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:46 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Nav shifts west coming for a landfall
Image



Love that Navgem pic. The location of Irma tells a lot. Out to sea...? Hard to believe from that location. Have my own ideas about its later course, but will leave that for a later post.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3819 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:46 am

The plan was not to stay up for the ERUO tonight this morning or what ever time it is, but I am still here so lets see what it does.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3820 Postby stormreader » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:48 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Image

Navgem approaching South Florida. Tremendous west shift!!!


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Yes.
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