ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3881 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

Aric Dunn wrote:very weak trough no closed low over canada.. this is a SE us hit florida to nc ..


929mb and coming toward the SE FL Coast at 168 or 7 days from 7 tonight (next Saturday). Landfall would likely be Sunday day if it continues going WNW.

?
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3882 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 am

168hr...still on a WNW trajectory approaching Nassau/Andros Island
1 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3883 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:38 am

Big slowdown between 144 and 168
1 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3884 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:39 am

What is the other low behind Irma
0 likes   

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3885 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:39 am

Ewww. Big trouble in Little Havana.
0 likes   

User avatar
AubreyStorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 337
Age: 44
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:21 pm
Location: Texas, USA

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3886 Postby AubreyStorm » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:39 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


OMG! Puerto Rico :eek:
0 likes   
The posts are NOT an official forecast. Please REFER to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3887 Postby Siker » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:39 am

It's turning in hours 156-168. Will probably miss Florida.
1 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3888 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:39 am

Let's not forget that back when this was all starting in the beginning the Euro was consistent for a few runs taking this thing through the Straights. The GFS even had a couple through the Straights and up the West Coast.
2 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3889 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:39 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:What is the other low behind Irma


The next named storm unless something fires in the Gulf first. Look at the satellite. Models that depict it like it to come across farther south.
2 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3863
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3890 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:39 am

Closer to SE FL. Possibly a landfall this run as well
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

WHYB630
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:19 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3891 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:40 am

start to show more differences. Ridge backed off more on EC; Irma is farther south on EC

Image
Image
0 likes   

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2667
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3892 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:40 am

I don't see a turn yet on the high-res ECMWF, very close call though:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4546
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3893 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:40 am

It's ready to turn next frame .....
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3894 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:41 am

USTropics wrote:I don't see a turn yet on the high-res ECMWF, very close call though:

Image


lol there is nothing but ridging building in.. gulf maybe ?
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3895 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:42 am

European showing a lot of inconsistency run to run. This is the 3rd run in a row it is has a completely different 7-8 day solution. That shouldn't be surprising, but I do expect more from the Euro. Come on 192!
2 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3896 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:42 am

nice jump north.. no more though.. look at that ridge..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1766
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3897 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:43 am

Turns N
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10179
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3898 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:43 am

Turned lol regardless trends if continue aren't good for Florida...
3 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3899 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:43 am

It's trapped...Nowhere to go but NNW. Here we go SC/NC

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3900 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:43 am

Absolutely devastating run for the entirety of the Bahamas (+ Turks and Caicos) if that verifies. Basically right down the middle of the islands.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests