ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1681 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:39 am

Aric Dunn wrote:There is some sort of a pressure or gravitational wave coming in from the NNE flattening( downward motion) the cirrus and maybe mid level clouds. interesting to see if that affects this in the short term. alwasy fun to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

actually appears mostly below the cirrus deck. quite likely a gravity wave from somewhere as they can travel large distances. there is convection building in a outer band behind that wave so .. it is a wave of some sort. hard to tell


Could that be related to the steering flow that'll eventually push Irma to the southwest? It's showing up fairly well on WV.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1682 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:06 am

One thing that is apparent from IR imagery from late Saturday up through early this morning is that the areal expanse of cold tops associated with the CDO appears to be gradually getting larger, as implied by the global model forecasts.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1683 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:21 am

Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:There is some sort of a pressure or gravitational wave coming in from the NNE flattening( downward motion) the cirrus and maybe mid level clouds. interesting to see if that affects this in the short term. alwasy fun to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

actually appears mostly below the cirrus deck. quite likely a gravity wave from somewhere as they can travel large distances. there is convection building in a outer band behind that wave so .. it is a wave of some sort. hard to tell


Could that be related to the steering flow that'll eventually push Irma to the southwest? It's showing up fairly well on WV.


That is a good question.. if so we will se a more sudden wsw to sw motion shortly. ......
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1684 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:21 am

AJC3 wrote:One thing that is apparent from IR imagery from late Saturday up through early this morning is that the areal expanse of cold tops associated with the CDO appears to be gradually getting larger, as implied by the global model forecasts.

Agreed !
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1685 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:05 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:There is some sort of a pressure or gravitational wave coming in from the NNE flattening( downward motion) the cirrus and maybe mid level clouds. interesting to see if that affects this in the short term. alwasy fun to watch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

actually appears mostly below the cirrus deck. quite likely a gravity wave from somewhere as they can travel large distances. there is convection building in a outer band behind that wave so .. it is a wave of some sort. hard to tell


Could that be related to the steering flow that'll eventually push Irma to the southwest? It's showing up fairly well on WV.


That is a good question.. if so we will se a more sudden wsw to sw motion shortly. ......


Looks like the eye took a fairly sharp jog SW over the last hour or so now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1686 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:07 am

Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Could that be related to the steering flow that'll eventually push Irma to the southwest? It's showing up fairly well on WV.


That is a good question.. if so we will se a more sudden wsw to sw motion shortly. ......


Looks like the eye took a fairly sharp jog SW over the last hour or so now.


agreed. it is definitely losing latitude faster now.. might come in just south of the next forecast point it looks like. its also deepening agian, the eye is clearing out.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1687 Postby bob rulz » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:10 am

Eye is definitely clearing out on IR in the last hour. There's nothing to stop it from undergoing another intensification phase in the short term now, assuming the EWRC is complete or near complete.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1688 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:11 am

TXNT25 KNES 030624
TCSNTL
CCA

A. 11L (IRMA)

B. 03/0545Z

C. 18.1N

D. 46.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR STORM HEADER ID. PINHOLE MG EYE SURROUNDED
AND EMBEDDED BY B YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. NO EYE ADJUSTMENTS MADE. MET AND
PT ARE BOTH 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1689 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:14 am

bob rulz wrote:Eye is definitely clearing out on IR in the last hour. There's nothing to stop it from undergoing another intensification phase in the short term now, assuming the EWRC is complete or near complete.



May attempt cat4 by 11am or 5pm.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1690 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:23 am

As much of a scientist as I am... I hate looking at the data and having "feelings" .......... after having a review of current synoptics. Once this bottoms out with the wsw to sw motion I just dont see the ridge cutting off and allowing such a sharp turn..

A very distinct possibility is we get this wsw to sw motion ( with some wobbles as it deepens) then as the ridge slides/weakens IRMA does not just turn it travels more westerly and gradually turns ( how they almost always do) coming through the NE islands and anywhere from PR To DR and then becasue of the longer track the trough lifts out ridging builds in and the flow becomes more zonal. at which time IRMA is in the SE bahamas heading W to wnw for the florida straights.. without anything left to turn it right away.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1691 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:28 am

00z runs I bet shift the NHC 3-5 day track S and NE Caribbean may be in Watch Monday... Oh boy...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1692 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:29 am

IR channel 4

last hour you can see a very clear wsw to almost SW turn and its deepeing... not a good sign..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

if that keeps up it will be missing the NHC forecast point to the South very easily .
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1693 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:30 am

Aric, how was the Euro on Harvey @168 hours out? Did it show Tx landfall?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1694 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:32 am

Blown Away wrote:Aric, how was the Euro on Harvey @168 hours out? Did it show Tx landfall?


oh geezz idk lol ... I do remember quite a few runs of most of the models bouncing back and forth with the idea. none had a very strong system at the time. but its a completely different set up and not a good analogy right now..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1695 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:35 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Aric, how was the Euro on Harvey @168 hours out? Did it show Tx landfall?


oh geezz idk lol ... I do remember quite a few runs of most of the models bouncing back and forth with the idea. none had a very strong system at the time. but its a completely different set up and not a good analogy right now..


Just looking to see the accuracy at 168... Models playing out worse case scenario and we are moving into mid range... Yikes
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1696 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:40 am

Everyone is concentrating on US landfall, but Irma is looking potentially devastating for the Bahamas, especially if it bombs out while passing over.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1697 Postby bob rulz » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:42 am

Matthew was devastating for the Bahamas last year, hard to imagine another storm of similar or greater magnitude passing over just a year later.

Lesser Antilles are the more immediate concern, however.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1698 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:42 am

Hurrilurker wrote:Everyone is concentrating on US landfall, but Irma is looking potentially devastating for the Bahamas, especially if it bombs out while passing over.


Storm2k always worries about peeps on the islands... There are 300+ million peeps in the US and it's just a numbers thing... :D
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1699 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:44 am

bob rulz wrote:Matthew was devastating for the Bahamas last year, hard to imagine another storm of similar or greater magnitude passing over just a year later.

Lesser Antilles are the more immediate concern, however.

And Joaquin the year before... Bahamas have been hammered as of late.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1700 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:50 am

SFL will likely be on edge of NHC 5 day cone on Monday...
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